Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
Soybean harvest is pushing along at close to record pace in the US with mostly clear weather expected for the next 7-10 days. Brazil is estimated to be over 5% planted at this point, and that is 5-6% behind pace compared to the last 2 years. Farmers in Brazil are still expecting to plant up to 75% of the soybean crop by mid November. With the lack of rain over the past few months, Brazil’s Amazon River recorded the lowest water level in 122 years. The rain expected to give Brazil relief is expected in the 6-10 day forecast. The US Mississippi River is also low and heading back to lower levels by mid October. The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if rain remains out of the forecast. Russia’s agriculture minister urged Russian farmers to go to church and pray for rain as the lack of precipitation has put their winter wheat crop at risk of crippling.
Weather:
Hurricane Milton has been bouncing between a category 3 and 5, now expected to be a cat 4 hurricane. with water surges as high at 12-15 feet near Tampa Bay and Sarasota, including winds of 150-180 mph. Florida residents are hitting the road and airports ahead of the storm, performing the largest evacuation since 2017. Milton is expected to remain a hurricane all the way across the state of Florida and is not expected to double back and add rain to the east coast states that are still recovering from Helene.
Total Precipitation Ranking Map (1893-2024) shows most of Minnesota eastern South Dakota and northern Iowa are in the top 10 years of lowest rainfall recorded between August 31st and October 7th. The Southeast has been wet.
The Memphis River Gauge is heading back to levels that will restrict drafts. -2.5 feet and below is the threshold for less than full draft barges. This will be a big problem for the export market if the 30 day forecast for the US remains dry.
Russia has been very dry over the last month and is expected to remain dry over the next 10 days.
Export & World News
The Us sold 155K MT of corn to Mexico and 172,500 Mt of soybeans to unknown destinations. The Korea Feed Association purchased around 60K MT of soymeal on Friday last week. Algeria and Bangladesh are both in the market to purchase milling wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down overnight 72 ringgit, at 4271.
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