Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down. CU is unch. WU is up. KWU is up. MWU is up. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
SU is near 10.03. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Trade trying to hold 10.00 SU support before US export sales and USDA report. This week, most of the east US Midwest will be dry. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 52.5. Trade also est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 349 and 2024/25 carryout near 465. Bulls need China to buy US to reverse the downward price momentum. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at old crop 100-300 mt vs 376 last week and 400-900 mt new crop vs 632 last week. Soyoil supported by reports EPA could audit palmoil imports for biofuel use.
CU is near 3.82. Dalian corn futures were higher. Trade continues to take out supply risk. This week, most of the east US Midwest will be dry. Average trade guess for US corn yield is 182.2. Key could be if USDA drops planted acres. Trade also est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 1,876 and US 2024/25 carryout near 2,096. Bulls need World to buy US to reverse the downward price momentum. Trade still has to deal with fact US farmers have 2023 corn to sell over next few weeks and have sold little 2024 crop. Weekly US corn export sales are est at old crop 100-400 mt vs 475 last week and 475-1,000 mt new crop vs 711 last week.
WU is near 5.41.. Average trade guess for US wheat crop is 2015 mil bu. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout near 862. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-500 mt vs 266 last week.
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