Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SH is down 11 cents and near 11.88. SMH is near 354.1. BOH is near 45.96. CH is down 4 cents and near 4.35. WH is unch and near 5.95. KWH is unch and near 6.18.. MWH is unch and near 6.93. US stocks are flat. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cattle are higher.
SH has dropped to near 11.88. Support is near 11.75. USDA report week. There were rains overnight in BA Argentina. Soymeal futures dropped to near 354 on talk Argentina is buying Brazil soybean to crush. This could increase Argentina competition for US soymeal exports. Average trade est for US 2023/24 soybean carryout is 284 vs USDA 280. Trade est Brazil soybean crop at 153 mmt vs USDA 157. Argentina 51 mmt vs USDA 50.
CH is near 4.35. Support is near 4.30 on weekly chart. USDA report week. CH has dropped below 4.40 support and 4.36. Spreads widened. Demand seems to drop faster than SA crop estimates. Dalian corn futures were higher. Average trade est for US 2023/24 soybean carryout is 2,146 vs USDA 2,162 Trade est Brazil corn crop at 124 mmt vs USDA 127. Argentina 55.6 mmt vs USDA 55. Brazil safrina crop planting pace fastest since 2013. Quick planting pace and favorable weather could increase final planted acres. Ukraine corn prices still a discount to US with talk China bought Ukraine corn. Weekly ethanol prod is est higher and stocks lower than last week.
WH is near 5.95. KWH 6.18. MWH 6.93. USDA report this week. Some short covering before USDA. Global wheat import demand has slowed as buyers search for funding. Red Sea unrest could add to freight cost and slow demand. Lower Russia and EU wheat export prices limits rallies in futures. Average trade est for US 2023/24 wheat carryout is 647 vs USDA 648.
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