Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
USDA announced 132 mt of US 2021/22 soybeans to China. Weekly US soybean export sales were 628 mt vs 553 last week and 450 last year. Shipments to date are near 43.4 mmt vs 54.2 last year. USDA goal is 56.9 mmt vs 61.5 ly. Soybeans lower on talk of lower US and South America exports prices. Soyoil on defensive due to talk of Argentina reducing its biofuel mandate and fear of drop in China vegoil import demand due to Covid lockdown. Lack of ability to close over 17.00 SK may have triggered some long liquidation. There is technical concern that managed funds are too high a percent of total open interest and SK is too high vs the 50 day moving average near 15.89.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower but off session lows. CK ended near 7.40. USDA announced 127.9 mt of US 2021/22 corn to unknown. Weekly US corn export sales were 1,606 mt vs 1,496 last week and 1,789 last year. Shipments to date are near 29.0 mmt vs 34.0 last year. USDA goal is 63.5 mmt vs 69.9 ly. Russia and Ukraine peace talks is weighing on commodities including corn. Market is taking off supply premium if Ukraine can export corn and Ukraine central and west farmers can plant summer crops. Lack of ability to close over 7.70 CK may have triggered some long liquidation. USDA March 1 grain stocks and first estimate of US 2022 planted acres is Thursday. US March 1 stocks are est near 7,865 mil bu vs 7,696 ly. Total usage is estimated near 3,776 mil bu vs 3,603 ly. Exports were 696 vs 661 ly. Dec-Feb F/S/I use is est near 1,702 vs 1,513 ly. Trade est US 2022 corn acres near 92.0 vs vs 93.4 ly. Crop range from 14,980 vs USDA Outlook 15,240 and carryout 1,285 to USDA 1,965.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply lower. Weekly US wheat export sales were 341 mt vs 334 last week and 307 last year. Shipments to date are near 16.9 mmt vs 20.3 last year. USDA goal is 21.7 mmt vs 27.0 ly. Russia and Ukraine peace talks is weighing on commodities including wheat. Market is taking off supply premium if Russia and Ukraine can export wheat and Ukraine central and west farmers can harvest fall crops and plant summer crops. USDA March 1 grain stocks and first estimate of US 2022 planted acres is Thursday. US March 1 stocks are est near 1,045 mil bu vs 1,311 ly. Total usage is estimated near 345 mil bu vs 414 ly. Exports were 189 vs 215 ly. Dec-Feb feed use is est near -78 vs -34 ly. Trade est US 2022 wheat acres near 47.8 vs vs 46.7 ly. Crop range from 1,940 vs 1,986 and carryout 740 to 880.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
