ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar fell to its lowest level since August 21 early Tuesday but bounced off that level. The funds are loaded up on the long side of this market, which has made the bulls concerned the market cannot continue its rally. The correction has been modest so far, and the fund net long has stayed relatively high. Several key producers have experienced poor growing conditions this year, particularly European beets and Indian cane. Brazil has seen a drop in sugar production despite an increase in crushing activity, as ethanol has captured a bigger share. Thailand is expects to produce less sugar with growers switching to a more lucrative cassava. Indonesia’s cane production is expected to drop by around 25% this year due to dry weather conditions and wildfires. The arrival of their rainy season has been pushed back to early November from a previous forecast of October.
COFFEE
After a three day consolidation, December Coffee inched lower early Tuesday as if to ready to resume its selloff. News that ICE certified arabica stocks fell on Monday has done little to support the market. Stocks were down 5,060 bags Monday after reaching their highest level since August 3 on Friday and after increasing 40,769 bags over the previous three sessions. Reports of strong exports out of Brazil last month sparked the selloff from the August highs. The new crop is getting off to a strong start, with early flowering following unusually high rainfall. Favorable weather is still needed to ensure the flowers lead to cherries, and there is a risk of quality problems or that El Nino leads to severe heat and or bacterial and fungal disease. 2027 is also an off-year in the biennial production cycle for arabica coffee. After a wet weekend and a chance to dry out yesterday, World Weather Inc. expects more showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cool front that moves from Parana to Bahia Tuesday into Friday, including the biggest production area, Minas Gerais. Another break from rain is expected during the weekend, followed by another boost next week.
COCOA
December Cocoa extended its selloff early Tuesday to its lowest level since July 2. The market has sold off significantly since the start of the month on the return of rainfall to west African growing regions, though there are still concerns that not enough rain is falling in some areas. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters that below average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa-growing regions could threaten the development of small pods due to be harvested during the September-to-February main crop. World Weather Inc. said satellite data indicate central and southern portions of Ivory Coast were dry or nearly dry over the weekend, while the remainder of West Africa from northern Ivory Coast through Ghana to Nigeria and Cameroon received light to moderate rain. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next ten days. Southern Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana still need a close watch since recent rain was erratic and light. Ivory Coast port arrivals were estimated at 16,000 metric tons for the week ending September 20, bringing the total to 20,500 tons since the start of the 2026/27 season on September 1.
COTTON
December Cotton was lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range-up day. The Crop Progress report released after the close on Monday showed 34% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of September 20, down from 36% the previous week and below the five-year average for this date at 42%. Texas was 15% G/E, down from 18% last week and a five-year average of 30%. Crop conditions have been wavering back and forth over the past four weeks, but they are not very good. The report also showed 65% of the crop had bolls open versus 57% a week ago and a five-year average of 58% and that 13% was harvested versus 8% a week ago and a five-year average of 11%. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on hopes that it will include an announcement of some deal for China to purchases of US agricultural products. The dollar reached its highest level since July 30 early Tuesday, which makes US exports less competitive on the global market.
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