Written Commentary
Morning Grains Outlook
Grains are lower. SX is down 9 cents and near 10.14. SMZ is near 345.1. BOZ is near 31.75. CZ is down 4 cents and near 3.78. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.65. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 5.00. US stocks are lower. POTUS and First Lady tested positive for the virus. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Biden and Speaker of House may have also been in contact with person believed to have given the virus to the POTUS.
Chinese Ag futures are closed for a week long holiday (Oct 1st thru 8th). Malaysian palm oil prices were down 77 ringgit at 2,712 (basis December) at midsession tracking the drop in crude and soyoil prices.
The US Midwest 6 to 10 day forecast has dry weather across all of the region through the period. Temps will be warming up to above average in the west and average in the east.
The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period has little to no rains for most of the region. Temps will be warming to average to above average early next week turning to above average for the rest of next week.
The Brazilian growing regions still has moderate rainfall for mostly Rio Grande do Sul over the next 10 day period with little rains elsewhere. By next weekend, light to moderate rains look to expand to areas north-central but still dry in the rest of the growing regions. The Argentine growing regions over the next 6 to 10 day period sees light rains to fall in most areas with some better precip amounts possible in the southern growing areas.
Not much change; not much hope of drought relief in Russia’s Southern Region. Any further relief in Ukraine is confined to the next three days favoring western portions of the nation.
For the week, SX range has been 9.85-10.35. SMZ 326-346, BOZ 32.25-33.52 (last weeks high was 35.45), CZ 3.50-3.85 and WZ 5.37-5.87. XStone estimated US corn crop at 14,942 mil bu (179.0 yield) versus USDA 14,900 and soybean crop at 4,351 (52.4 yield) versus USDA 4,313. Their estimates were down slightly from their previous guess. Another private crop estimate is today.
Along with US election uncertainty, soybean prices will be up to final US yield, China demand and South America weather, corn will also be watching US yields, South America weather plus US farmer selling pace and wheat will be watching dry weather in Black Sea, US south plains and Argentina. Russia domestic wheat price are record high. 2 week Russia forecast is dry. EU is now too wet?
For the week ended September 24th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 8% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 4% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year, U.S. Corn sales are running 154% ahead of a year ago, shipments 71% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 32% increase and U.S. Soybean sales are running 169% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 64% with the USDA forecasting a 27% increase on the year
On USDA Friday, Managed funds net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; were net even in Soybeans; bought 5,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 160,000 Corn; net long 217,000 Soybeans; net long 73,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 93,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
