Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. US Dollar is slightly higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is unch but near $68.93. Gold is higher. Copper is higher on talk Trump to investigate copper imports. US passed Trump resolution budget bill which now goes to Senate. US consumer confidence dropped. China is taking tougher tone on Taiwan and announced new military drills.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.44. Dalian soybean, soymeal , soyoil and palmoil were lower. Soybean futures tested 10.37 SK support on China tariff risk and reduced US/China relations. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 soybean acres at 84.4 vs 87.1 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 367 mil bu vs 2024/25 380. C/N Brazil rains could slow harvest. S/E is dry. N Argentina is dry. Rest of Argentina should see normal rains. Indonesia est increase of 2 mmt in palmoil production, increase in B40 domestic use and lower exports.
CORN
CK is near 4.94. Dalian corn was lower. China talking increase domestic corn supply and reducing imports. Mexico tariffs are negative. US cash basis is lower and there is talk of March corn deliveries. CH-CK is near 65 pct of full carry. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 corn acres at 93.5 vs 90.6 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 corn end stocks at 1,907 mil bu vs 2024/25 1,540. Argentina and S Brazil is seeing rains. Dry N/C weather helping 2nd corn crop plantings. 80-85 pct of MG corn is planted.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.87. KWK is near 6.05. MWK is near 6.26. WK tested 5.83 support and is down almost 40 cents from last weeks high on reduced Russia weather concerns. KWH-KWK is wide and at 80 pct of full carry. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea crops could see moderate temps and better chance for rain. India is warm and dry. West EU rains could drop French wheat quality. US Ag Forum this week. Drop in Russia export tax improved Russia shippers profit margins. Trade est US 2025 wheat acres at 46.7 vs 46.1 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 wheat end stocks at 829 mil bu vs 2024/25 794.
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