ADMIS News
COFFEE
March Coffee was under pressure early Wednesday and was approaching the September low. A recent increase in ICE certified arabica stocks after a long decline has suggested that buyers are not necessarily lapping up surging Brazilian exports. ICE stocks were down 35 bags on Tuesday to 241,368 after increasing by 21,024 bags over the three previous sessions. However the amount pending review increase by 51,934 bags in one day to 104,370, the highest since March 11. All are from Brazil. World Weather Inc. says but showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact various coffee production areas in Brazil over the next week or so, which his supportive to next year’s crop development. Robusta prices may be under pressure from Vietnam’s harvest.
COCOA
March Cocoa was higher early Wednesday but inside Tuesday’s range down action to took it to its lowest level since June. The market also fell below the 200-day moving average on Tuesday for the first time since June but closed back above it, and that level, 4831, could be a bull/bear line today. ICE cocoa stocks increased by 5,668 bags on Tuesday to 3.747 million after falling for only the fourth time in more than six weeks on Monday. Last Friday the stocks hit their highest level since May 2024. The steady build up in stocks suggests demand is not keeping pace with supply. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals for the marketing year have reached 264,500 tons, down from 411,000 a year ago and below the fiver-year average for this point in the season at 434,200.
COTTON
March Cotton was near unchanged early Wednesday and inside the range of the past week following a USDA supply/demand report on Tuesday that did not offer a lot of surprises. Ending stocks were lowered by 100,000 bales from last month’s estimate versus average expectations from a Bloomberg poll calling for a 200,000-bale decline. They are the lowest since 2023/24. US production fell slightly, pretty much as expected. India’s production was lowered by 500,000 bales, and Australia’s and China’s were increased by that amount and Turkey’s by 300,000 bales. Brazil production was left unchanged. The US Dollar was higher overnight in the wake of a hot CPI report and comments from Fed officials suggesting a more aggressive tightening strategy will be needed to curb inflation. This does not help US export prospects.
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Wednesday after falling below the 18-cent level on Tuesday. The market has fallen 16% from a contract high at 21.29 on October 14 and it may be due for some consolidation between 18.00 and 20.00. The tight global supply setup has not gone away, especially with Brazil’s production sharply lower this year due to too much rain. USDA cut its forecast for US sugar production to 8.52 million short tons on Tuesday down 248,000 from the October report and the lowest since 2019/20. Beet sugar production was lowered by 190,000 to 4.55 million, and cane output was reduced by 58,000 tons to 3.97 million. Projected imports were increased by 42,000 tons to 3.43 million. The significant net long held by the funds leaves a risk of heavy selling if support levels give way.
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