Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are lower. SX is down 3 cents and near 9.92. SMZ is near 333.2. BOZ is near 32.72. CZ is down 2 cents and near 3.64. WZ is down 1 cent and near 5.49. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 4.81. US stocks are mixed. Increase in global virus cases may be offering resistance to equities. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Key US Presidential debate is today. USDA grain stocks report tomorrow. China Holiday starts Thursday.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 90 yuan in soybeans, up 3 in Corn, down 14 in Soymeal, down 22 in Soyoil, and down 22 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 48 ringgit at 2,774 (basis December) weakened by a drop in crude oil prices.
SX traded below the 200 day moving average near 9.94. CZ is in a 3.60 to 3.70 range. WZ is in a 5.40 to 5.50 range. Slowdown in China buying US soybeans may be offering resistance to futures. Dry weather in Black Sea. South America and US south plains may be offering support to corn and wheat futures. Brazil dry weather may be delaying early corn and soybean planting. This could extend US soybean export window into February.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast calls for below normal temps and rainfall. It reman dry in Russia, Brazil and Argentina. Ukraine saw needed rains. Frost is noted in Australia land Argentina.
USDA rated the 2020 US corn crop 61 pct good/ex. Harvest is near 15 pct done. Corn crop is slow in drying down. IA is 12 pct, IL is 12, MO is 20, and IN is 13. US farmer is turning his harvest focus to soybeans. USDA rated the US 2020 soybean crop 64 pct good/ex versus 63 last week. 20 pct of the crop is harvested. AR is 17 pct, IA 30, MN is 31, IL is 11 and IN is 17. Next USDA crop report is Oct 9.
On Monday, Managed funds net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; sold 5,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 100,000 Corn; net long 191,000 Soybeans; net long 59,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 99,000 Soyoil.
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