Written Commentary
USDA SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY
Today’s USDA data was bearish for corn, neutral for wheat while a bit supportive for soybeans.
Corn:
- Sept. 1st stocks at 2.095 bil. bu. were 177 mil. bu. above expectations and above the range of estimates
- 2025 production was cut 57 mil. bu. to 16.964 bil. still a record high
- The 2025 Ave. yield was left unchanged at 186.5 bpa while harvested acres were cut 310k
- Look for the USDA to slash 2025/26 Feed & Residual Use over 200 mil. bu.
Soybeans:
- Sept. 1st stocks at 315 mil. bu. were 9 mil. below expectations
- 2025 production was cut 1 mil. bu. to 4.261 bil., in line with expectations
- The 2025 Ave. yield was left unchanged at 53.0 bpa while harvested acres were cut 20k
- I look for higher exports in the Oct-26 WASDE to lower stocks to 315 mil.
Wheat:
- All Wheat production at 1.534 bil. bu. was up 3 mil. while 10 mil. above expectations
- Winter production was raised 29 mil. to 1.019 bil., 30 mil. above expectations
- HRW was up 3 mil, SRW up 7 mil. while white wheat was up 19 mil.
- Spring wheat production was down 24 mil. to 450 mil. while 21 mil. bu. below expectations
- Sept. 1st stocks at 1.846 bil. was 26 mil. below expectations and well below the 2.134 bil. from YA
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