Written Commentary
by Steve Freed,
Grains are mixed. SN is down 3 cents and near 8.39. CN is down 1 cents and near 3.28. WN is up 12 cents and near 5.45. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar was higher. Wheat might be adding a Black Sea export concern premium. The spread of the virus continues. There is still concern about the spread reducing commodity demand.
US Midwest 6-10 day forecast calls for normal to below temps and normal rains. 8-14 day is warmer and drier. Rains continue in the south and east. US corn planting is est near 5-6 pct vs 9 average.
China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year. Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tons this year, rising to 96.62 million tons in 2025 and 99.52 million tons in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry said. Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tons, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
Bigger US crop and slower demand could raise US 2020/21 corn carryout to near 3,300 mil bu. Key to soybean carryout is export demand. Smaller US wheat crop could lower US wheat carryout.
US announced aid to US AG. US will provide direct aid of $9.6 bil to livestock producers, $3.9 bil to crops, $2.1 bil to fruit and vegetables and $500 mil to niche producers. USDA will buy $3.0 bill of fresh produce, dairy and meat products for food banks. Ethanol was left out. There will be one payment based on a formula detailing price losses from Jan 1-April 15. Payment would be 85 pct of total loss. Payment will be limited to $125,000 for each commodity and $250,000 cap on individual entity. Cotton growers estimate losses to date near $3 bill, pork $5 bil and cattle $13.6-14.6 bil. Sign up will begin early in May and payment will start late May and early June.
On Friday, Managed Money were sellers 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, even soyoil, net buyers of 7,000 corn and buyers of 4,000 wheat. Managed funds are net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 141,000 Corn; net long 2,000 Soybeans; net long 7,000 lots of Soymeal and; net short 7,000 Soyoil.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
