Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are higher. SX up 6 cents and near 10.68. SMZ is near 374.3. BOZ near 33.47. CZ is up 4 cents and near 4.07. WZ is up 4 cents and near 6.22. KWZ is unchanged and near 5.58. US stocks are mixed. Crude is lower. Gold is mixed to higher. US Dollar is lower. Covid cases are on the rise in EU and US. There is some movement to try to get an US stimulus package.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 25 cents; HRW up 21; HRS up 15; Corn is up 11 cents; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil down 65 points. Crushing margins are up 2 cents at $1.10; Oil share is unchanged at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 80 yuan in soybeans, up 10 in Corn, up 9 in Soymeal, down 152 in Soyoil, and down 176 in Palm Oil.
The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period has rainfall chances for the eastern sections of KS, OK, and TX the middle of the coming week. Temps will swing from above average to below over the 10 day period. Rains are forecasted for Brazil, Argentina and parts of Black Sea. Too much rain now in Australia. Rains forecasted for US Midwest. Could slow harvest. US south plains HRW areas still dry.
China buying US soybean and concern about SA crop has SX-SX21 near +90. Soymeal futures new highs.
Argentina farmer has sold 32 mmt old crop soybean vs 38 ly. New crop sales 3 mmt vs 6. BAGE estimated their 2021 soybean crop near 46.5 mmt vs Rosaria est of 50 and USDA 52.5. Argentina farmer has sold 8 mmt new crop corn vs 10 ly. Plantings near 23 pct versus 29 ly. Concern increasing where EU will source corn import needs. Ukraine crop below 30 mmt. Sold 8 mmt to China. Argentina lowered their wheat crop 2 mmt to 19. Matif/CME Black Sea futures new highs. Aust 6 moth highs
Weekly US soybean export sales est 1,500-2,200 mt versus 2,591 last week. USDA goal 59.8 mmt vs 45.6 ly
Weekly US corn export sales est 600-1,200 mt versus 1,225 last week. USDA goal 59.0 mmt vs 45.1 ly
Weekly US wheat export sales est 200-600 mt versus 530 last week. USDA goal 26.5 mmt vs 26.2 ly
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 14,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 23,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; bought 7,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 46,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 202,000 Corn; net long 251,000 Soybeans; net long 91,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 80,000 Soyoil.
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