Global Ag News Headlines for Apr 20

by ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 12 cents, HRW up 11; HRS Wheat up 9, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 3, Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil down 30 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 24 cents; HRW down 14; HRS down 25; Corn was down 7 cents; Soybeans down 29 cents; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil down 110 points;

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 10 yuan in Soybeans, up 7 in Corn, down 27 in Soymeal, down 2 in Soyoil, and up 44 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 27 ringgit at 2,262 (basis July) at midsession on ideas of demand pick-up.

U.S. Weather Forecast

U.S. weather in the coming ten days will start out quite cool east of the high Plains, but a steady warming trend is expected this week and temperatures next week will only be cooler than usual in the eastern states while the Plains and most areas to the west are notably warm; there is potential for 80- and 90-degree heat later this week and into the weekend in a part of the central and southern Plains with 60s and 70s in the Midwest and northern Plains

South America Weather Forecast

Argentina will experience dry biased conditions during much of this week, but rain will develop at the end of the workweek and increase during the weekend and first half of next week; most crop areas will get rain and it will prove to be quite timely for late season immature crops

Brazil weather is still expected to be dry for the next ten days in southern Brazil as it was during the weekend

Black Sea/Europe region

Europe and the western CIS will remain one of growing concern from northern France through Germany and parts of the Baltic Plain southward into Romania and northeastern Bulgaria and then eastward into Ukraine; worry over Kazakhstan crop conditions will also remain high, although that region will be last to warm up which should help conserve soil moisture through slower evaporation for a while

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; net sold 2,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 141,000 Corn; net long 2,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 7,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,600; Corn up 6,600; Soybeans up 25 contracts; Soymeal up 2,100 lots, and; Soyoil down 360.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 297; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.

TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITION REPORTS—-

Tender Activity—Malaysian bought unknown quantities of Black Sea container wheat—Ethiopia postpones 600,000t wheat tender—S. Korea bought 58,000t South American corn—S. Korea bought 60,000t South American soymeal—

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday announced a $19 billion relief program to help farmers cope with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic through a package that will include direct payment and mass purchases of produce, meat and other products

Responding to the economic impact on agriculture brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, the Trump administration will provide an initial aid package of roughly $16 billion in direct payments to farmers and ranchers and another $3 billion in food purchases.

Despite the shortened holiday period, speculators pushed their bearish Chicago corn bets to seven-month highs in the most recent week while corn futures remain at historic lows due to unprecedented issues with demand.

—World production of corn oil and distillers dried grains will turn out significantly smaller than expected in 2020 as a side effect of collapsing US ethanol output

—Malaysian palm oil output plunged on the year in Jan/March but may be relatively large in April as harvesting is stepped up

—In India consumption of veg. oils suffered but supplies have tightened owing to insufficient imports and below-normal domestic production

—Argentine exports of sunflowerseed are rising in Jan/April 2020, benefiting from the shortage of sunseed in the northern hemisphere

—Chinese soybean imports are seen recovering and increasing above the year-ago level in April and May, resulting from huge Brazilian exports

—Supplies of fish oil & meal to remain tight as the start of fishing in Peru is likely to be delayed further

• CHINA’S DOMESTIC SOYBEAN OUTPUT SEEN AT 18.81 MILLION TONNES IN 2020, UP 3.9% YEAR-ON-YEAR – AGRICULTURE MINISTRY
• CHINA’S SOYBEAN CRUSHING VOLUME SEEN AT 85.98 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 – AGRI MINISTRY
• CHINA’S SLAUGHTERED PIG HERD IN 2020 SEEN AT 501.49 MILLION HEADS, DOWN 7.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR – AGRI MINISTRY
• CHINA’S 2020 PORK CONSUMPTION SEEN AT 42.06 MILLION TONNES, DOWN 5.6% YEAR-ON-YEAR – AGRI MINISTRY
• CHINA’S 2020 PORK IMPORTS SEEN AT 2.8 MILLION TONNES, UP 32.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR – AGRI MINISTRY

China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds; soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tons this year, rising to 96.62 million tons in 2025 and 99.52 million tons in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry said; pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tons, a 32.7% increase from the previous year

The global coronavirus pandemic threatens to cause a huge shock to international food trade and trigger a new food crisis, a top agriculture official in China said; the comments came as coronavirus outbreaks roiled global agriculture supply chains and upended trade, and after some countries restricted exports of main grains and increased procurement for reserves; the fast spreading global epidemic has brought huge uncertainty on international agriculture trade and markets; if the epidemic continues to spread and escalate, the impact on international food trade and production will definitely worsen, and might trigger a new round of food crisis

• CHINA SAYS FOOD CRISIS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE IN THE COUNTRY – AGRICULTURE MINISTER
• CHINA HAS THE CONFIDENCE AND ABILITY TO SECURE SUPPLIES OF GRAINS AND MAJOR AGRICULTURE PRODUCTS – AGRI MINISTER
• CHINA’S AGRICULTURE OUTPUT FACES MORE SEVERE THREATS THIS YEAR FROM PESTS, DROUGHT, AND FLOOD THAN NORMAL – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION AND MARKET OPERATION STILL FACES GRAVE CHALLENGES – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CONTROL AND PREVENTION SITUATION FOR AFRICAN SWINE FEVER DISEASE AND CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAKS IS COMPLEX – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• AFRICAN SWINE FEVER RISKS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED WITH MORE TRANSPORTATION OF PIGS – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• RISKS OF IMPORTED CORONAVIRUS STILL HUGE, WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE TO LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIA
• CHINA MEAT CONSUMPTION TO RECOVER AS PRODUCTION RESUMES, SECURING FUTURE SUPPLIES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S MEAT AND SOYBEAN IMPORTS TO INCREASE IN 2020 – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S CORN ACREAGE AND OUTPUT TO BOTH INCREASE IN 2020 – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S CORN OUTPUT TO REACH OVER 260 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S SOYBEAN OUTPUT TO INCREASE 3.9% IN 2020 – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S PORK OUTPUT TO FALL YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2020, POULTRY OUTPUT WILL INCREASE THIS YEAR – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S ANNUAL RICE OUTPUT WILL BE STABLE AT ABOVE 200 MILLION TONNES PER YEAR IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S SOYBEAN CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE STEADILY, WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY RELY ON IMPORTS IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S PORK IMPORTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL WHILE IMPORTS OF BEEF AND MUTTON WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS – AGRI MINISTRY OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S SOYBEAN IMPORTS SEEN AT 92.48 MILLION TONNES IN 2020, 96.62 MILLION TONNES IN 2025, 99.52 MILLION TONNES IN 2029 – OFFICIAL
• CHINA’S PORK OUTPUT SEEN AT 39.34 MILLION TONNES IN 2020, AROUND 54 MILLION TONNES IN 2022 – OFFICIAL

A food crisis will not take place in China, Agriculture Minister Han Changfu said, adding that the country has the confidence and ability to secure supplies of grains and other major agricultural products

Lessened forecasts for the Brazilian corn crop are helping US corn futures bounce back Friday, after trading lower this week in reaction to cuts to ethanol production; new estimates from INTL FCStone peg the Brazilian safrinha corn crop at 73.9 million metric tons, down 400,000 tons from previous estimates due to a dry forecast in growing regions for the next two weeks; US traders hope this may help US corn exports to look attractive on the export market.

Brazil has agreed to release water at the giant Itaipu hydroelectric dam to raise low water levels in the Parana River, a key thoroughfare for grains shipments, Argentina’s Foreign Ministry said; decade-low water levels on the Parana are forcing Argentine exporters to load less soy and other grains on ships bound largely for China, adding a new problem to a sector already beset by bottlenecks due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Russia will suspend grain exports until July 1 once its export quota is exhausted, which is currently expected to happen in mid-May, its deputy agriculture minister said; Russia last fully banned wheat exports in 2010 when drought hit its harvest, rocking global markets. Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh are the largest buyers of Russian wheat; the quota was introduced for the period from April 1 to June 30, 2020; after it is depleted, the supplies outside the (Russia-led) Eurasian Economic Union will be stopped for this period; based on the pace of the quota filling, it is expected that exports will be suspended in mid-May; there are no plans to increase the second-quarter quota, and the agriculture ministry could keep the grain export quota mechanism in the new 2020/21 marketing season, which starts on July 1.

The Russian Agriculture Ministry is still forecasting that Russia will export 45 million tons of grain, including 36 million tons of wheat, in the marketing year through the end of June 2020

Russia may harvest a grain crop of 130 million tons, including 80 million tons of wheat, in 2020, the head of Russia’s Grain Union, a non-government farmers’ lobby group said; in 2019, Russia’s grain crop was 121 million tons, including 74.5 million tons of wheat

Agriculture consultancy IKAR on Monday said it had cut its forecast for Russia’s 2020 wheat crop to 77.2 million from 79.5 million tons; the forecast was lowered due to unfavorable weather conditions for the upcoming crop in Russia’s southern regions

Russia’s agriculture ministry sold 84,905 tons of grain, mainly wheat, from the state stockpile for 1.1 billion rubles ($15 million) in an auction on Friday; in total, the ministry has sold 485,039 tons of grain from its stockpile since the start of the sales on April 13; exporters are not allowed to participate in these auctions; the ministry plans to sell up to 1.5 million tons of grain – 83% of its state stockpile – into the domestic market to increase supply for flour millers and bakers amid the coronavirus outbreak

Russia’s April exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are expected at 3.85 million tons, up from 3.60 million tons in March, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said

Ukrainian wheat exports jumped nearly 50 percent in the week of April 11-17 despite a government warning that it could ban shipments if export rates are too high; preliminary data from the APK-Inform consultancy on Sunday showed that Ukraine exported 319,000 tons of wheat last week, up from 217,000 tons a week earlier; the deputy economy minister in charge of agriculture was ready to ban wheat exports if sales exceed limits agreed with traders.

Ukrainian farmers have sown 4.8 million hectares of spring grains as of April 16 or 32% of the expected area of 15.3 million hectares, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture said; the sown area included 872,700 hectares of barley, 115,500 hectares of spring wheat and 1 million hectares of corn

EURONEXT MAY WHEAT ROSE TO 203.00 EUR/T IN OPENING TRADE, HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 2018, ON CONCERN OVER RUSSIAN EXPORT SUPPLY, DRY WEATHER IN EUROPE

Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed fell to 48.5% in February, compared with 48.8% a year earlier, preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showed

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1 – 20 rose 7.4 percent to 691,910 tons from 644,421 tons shipped during March 1 – 20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said

• MALAYSIA’S APRIL 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 684,162 TONNES VERSUS MARCH 1-20 AT 654,440 TONNES -AMSPEC MALAYSIA