Global Ag News Headlines 5.4

by ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 7 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 6, Corn is down 6 cents; Soybeans down 12, Soymeal down $2.50, and Soyoil down 50 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 14 cents; HRW unchanged; HRS down 7; Corn was down 5 cents; Soybeans up 10 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil up 100 points; Crushing margins were up 1 cent; Oil share up 1%.

Chinese Ag futures are closed for holiday until Wednesday.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 106 ringgit at 1,982 (basis July) on weaker soy, higher April stocks.

U.S. Weather Forecast

Freezes could damage emerged corn from the upper Midwest into parts of Iowa, northern Missouri, Illinois and parts of Indiana and some replanting will be needed – mostly in the upper Midwest

Unirrigated U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue too dry from southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado into west Texas for another week to ten days

South America Weather Forecast

Safrinha corn and cotton areas in Brazil will see erratic rainfall this week and only partial relief to dryness that has been expanding in recent weeks

Much of Sao Paulo, southern and western Minas Gerais, Goias, southeastern Mato Grosso and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul are missed by rainfall through the coming week

Black Sea/Europe region

Some rain fell across the European continent during the weekend to begin relieving some areas from dryness that has been prevailing for a while this spring; the rain reported so far during the weekend (through Sunday morning) had not been very great, but it was a start and frequent rain activity this week will bring up the topsoil moisture to more favorable levels from southeastern Europe into Ukraine and a few western parts of Russia’s Southern Region this week

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 3,000 Corn; net sold 4,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 144,000 Corn; net long 16,000 in Soybeans; net short 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 5,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,400 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,300; Corn down 6,700; Soybeans down 2,800 contracts; Soymeal up 750 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,400.

Deliveries were 4 Soymeal; 167 Soyoil; 7 Rice;

199 Corn; 4 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats;

ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW, and; ZERO HRS.

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil up 37; HRS Wheat up 82)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 223; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 3,550 lots; Soymeal 547; Rice 332; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 903 contracts.

TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS— 

Tender Activity—Egypt seeks 30,000t optional-origin soyoil, 10,000t sunoil—

USDA SAYS 5.76 MILLION TONS (192 MILLION BUSHELS) OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN MARCH –

USDA MARCH OILSEED CRUSHINGS

192 mil bu of soybeans crushed versus 175 mil a month ago and 179 mil a year ago

Soymeal stocks 368,000t versus 396,000t a month ago and 465,000t a year ago

Soyoil stocks 2.328 bil lbs versus 2.377 bil last month and 2.233 bil a year ago

USDA SAYS 411.8 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN USED FOR FUEL ALCOHOL IN MARCH, DOWN FROM 442.0 MILLION A YEAR AGO

USDA SAYS 1.655 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN MARCH, DOWN FROM 1.867 MILLION A YEAR AGO

USDA MARCH GRAIN CRUSHINGS

412 mil bu of corn for fuel alcohol versus 433 mil last month and 442 mil a year ago

DDGS produced were 1.655 mt versus 1.814 mt a month ago and 1.867 mt last year

Exports of US ethanol fell in 2019, the first time since 2015 that exports have been down, according to the EIA; the US exported 96,000 barrels per day of fuel ethanol in 2019 which while being the first annual drop in exports since 2015, is still the second-highest level on record.

Speculators did not drastically alter their views toward Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds last week as industry participants continued to assess changes to demand due to the coronavirus, but worsening trade relations between the United States and China soured the mood on Friday.

—Commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans and corn in the week to April 28, but they were sellers of wheat and soy products, according to data published on Friday by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Russian wheat export prices for the old crop fell this week in muted trade because the official April-June export quota has been reached, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said

—Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports and for the nearest delivery was down $2 at $228 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of this week, SovEcon said

—Barley was steady at $180 a ton

—The April-June quota of 7 million tons, put in place in response to the coronavirus crisis, was reached on April 26, with the agriculture ministry saying that grain exports will be suspended until July once the quota has been shipped

—Russia’s April grain exports totaled about 4 million tons, according to SovEcon

Russia’s April exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are expected at 4.0 million tons, up from 3.6 million tons in March

Consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for this year’s European Union rapeseed harvest to 17.02 million tons from 17.59 million estimated a month ago

—The revised outlook was now just 0.7% higher than last year’s crop of 16.90 million tons, which marked a 13-year low

—In its previous monthly outlook, Strategie Grains had trimmed its rapeseed production forecast for 2020 to 17.59 million tons from 17.85 million

Egypt’s supply minister said on Sunday the government had purchased 1 million tons of wheat from local farmers in the first two weeks of the harvesting season

—Egypt started its local harvest season on April 15

—The government has said it expects to procure 3.6 million tons

Algeria’s expenditure on cereals imports fell 8.5% in the first two months of 2020 from the same period last year, official data showed; the North African country is one of the world’s largest grain importers, but the government has been trying to reduce spending on food and other goods after a sharp drop in energy earnings hit state finances.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.