Global Ag News For May 5.2026

TOP HEADLINES

South African Farms Face El Niño Drought Risk on Top of Iran War

South African farmers pinched by mounting costs from the Iran war now face the added risk of an El Niño-induced drought, with implications for lower agricultural output and higher food prices.

That’s according to the nation’s main agricultural business lobby, which warned of the growing likelihood an El Niño dry spell will collide with the start of South Africa’s summer planting season in October.

“There are worrying developments on the weather outlook front, with serious implications for the farming sector, and ultimately the food supplies and prices in the country,” Agricultural Business Chamber Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo said in a note on Monday.

Rain-fed summer grains such as oilseeds, sugar cane and livestock grazing are most at risk, he said, with about 20% of the planting area of these crops under irrigation.

South Africa received plenty of rain at the start of the 2026–27 winter crop season in April, he said. But “we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could affect the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year,” Sihlobo said.

That will add to pressure on farmers, who are already expected to shrink wheat plantings to the smallest area in a decade after the war caused a surge in fuel and fertilizer prices, which are major input costs for agricultural production.

The conflict has sharpened concerns about food insecurity and inflation, with food prices making up the largest item in the basket of goods used to calculate the country’s consumer price index.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago flagged the risk posed by an El Niño event, alongside potential fallout from the conflict, after officials held interest rates steady in March while warning that they see inflation risks to the upside.

The central bank’s models show fuel price pressures surging by 18.3% in the second quarter and the rate of food inflation peaking at 4.1% by the end of the year.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 9 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 15 1/4; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 1.48.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 1/9 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/4; Soybeans up 24 1/4; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil up 2.29.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 24.9% in SRW, up 32.6% in HRW, up 19.9% in HRS; Corn is up 7.9%; Soybeans up 16.9%; Soymeal up 8.9%; Soyoil up 62.6%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 88 ringgit (+1.90%) at 4710.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

There were changes in registrations (-93 SRW Wheat, -15 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 341 SRW Wheat contracts; 208 Oats; 393 Corn; 890 Soybeans; 1,506 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 486 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 4 were: SRW Wheat up 7,626 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,590, Corn up 36,880, Soybeans up 36,208, Soymeal down 3,280, Soyoil up 4,037.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest – West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday.

Midwest – East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday. Mississippi Delta highlights… Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil – Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, falling Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

 

The player sheet for 5/4 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 22,500 corn, buyers of 12,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,750 soymeal, and buyers of 8,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of offers in the tender is May 5.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is May 6.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Incheon section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased up to 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Monday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat, European traders said. OAIC indicated a nominal volume of 50,000 metric tons, but the agency usually buys much more. The deadline for offers is on May 6.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was April 21.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender was April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.
• VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Tunisian state agency ONH has issued an international tender to purchase up to 6,000 metric of vegetable oils, European traders said on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Crop 38% Planted, Soybeans 33% Planted

Highlights from the report:

• Winter wheat 31% G/E vs 30% last week, and 51% a year ago
• Corn planted 38% vs 25% last week, and 38% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 33% vs 23% last week, and 28% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 32% vs 19% last week, and 42% a year ago
• Cotton planted 21% vs 16% last week, and 20% a year ago

 

US Inspected 2.028m Tons of Corn for Export, 450k of Soybeans

In week ending April 30, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 450k tons vs 638k the previous wk, 336k a yr ago
• Corn: 2,028k tons vs 1,657k the previous wk, 1,617k a yr ago
• Wheat: 434k tons vs 370k the previous wk, 412k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean Inspections by Country: April 30

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 30 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 201k tons of the 450k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices increase in April amid limited supply and low liquidity

Cepea, 4 – Wheat prices rose in April amid tight supply and thin liquidity, a pattern typical of the offseason. Sellers have been reluctant to close deals, holding back supply in anticipation of more favorable market conditions. As a result, trading activity has remained slow, with buyers facing immediate needs paying higher prices.

Between April 24 and 30, in the wholesale market, prices increased by 0.69% in Paraná, 0.64% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.57% in Santa Catarina, being stable in São Paulo. Prices paid to wheat farmers rose 0.13% in PR, 0.55% in SC and 1.83% in RS.

Data from Cepea indicate that the average price in Santa Catarina was at BRL 1,235.04 per ton in April, the highest level since Oct/25 and rising 2.4% against March/26, but still 15.1% down compared to April/25, in real terms (IGP-DI March/26). The monthly price average was at BRL 1,317.92/ton in Paraná, upping by 6.9% in one month, but downing 14.4% in one year, in real terms. As for Rio Grande do Sul, the average was at BRL 1,208.20/ton, for an increase of 9.3% against March and the highest level since Sept/25, although it is 16.5% below that recorded in April 2025. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1,394.77/ton (+4.7% in one month), the highest since Aug/25, but still 15.1% lower than in the same period last year.

 

India to Lift Urea Output as Plants Restart Operations: Official

India targets to increase production of urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, to 2.2 million tons in May from almost 2.1 million tons a month earlier after some plants restart operations following shutdowns linked to gas shortages, according to a senior government official.

• The country also aims to produce 400,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, Aparna Sharma, additional secretary in the fertilizer ministry, said at a media briefing in New Delhi on Monday
  • NPK fertilizer output target set at 800,000 tons
• “The fertilizer availability remains as robust as ever” for monsoon-sown crops such as rice, corn and soybeans
• Fertilizer plants are now getting about 98% of their LNG requirements

 

Brazil Corn Ethanol Clears IMO Regulatory Step for Maritime Use

Brazil said its corn ethanol passed a significant regulatory step from the International Maritime Organization, giving the country an edge in the race to provide biofuels for ocean vessel transportation.

The South American country’s so-called second-crop corn ethanol is the first biofuel compatible with marine transport to have its carbon footprint defined and approved by the IMO, according to Flavio Mathuiy, a navy captain who represents Brazil at the world’s shipping regulator.

The London-based IMO didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment during a holiday in the UK.

The move clears a key hurdle for the Brazilian biofuel ahead of enforcement of a global IMO framework to cut greenhouse gas emissions in maritime transportation, providing a potential boost to the country’s corn farmers and ethanol traders.

The IMO’s net-zero framework was approved in April 2025, but its formal adoption was pushed back to December 2026 after US pressure. The rules would pave the way for the end of oil as shipping’s dominant fuel and open the door for cleaner alternatives.

The global shipping industry accounts for 2%-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a 2020 IMO study. If the industry were a country, it would rank as the sixth largest emitter worldwide, between Japan and Germany, according to the World Bank.

The Marine Environment Protection Committee of the IMO, which convened last week in London, approved “a default value” of 20.8 grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule for Brazilian ethanol made from second-crop corn, according to Mathuiy. The reference value, used for measuring fuel efficiency and emissions reduction, is 93.3 grams of CO2 equivalent for bunker fuel.

“It is an emblematic development,” Mathuiy said. “The approval of the default value signals for shipping companies which alternative fuels they may choose from.”

Brazil’s second-crop corn ethanol is the first to get such a designation. Other renewable fuels will need the same approval as the IMO seeks to complete its global framework, which will set penalties and rewards in the effort to reduce emissions.

The nation’s second-crop corn is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas, and will represent nearly 80% of the country’s total output of the commodity in the current marketing year.

The domestic industry claims Brazil’s corn-based ethanol is intrinsically less carbon intensive than the US biofuel due to factors like the use of biomass in production and Brazil’s double-cropping system.

Companies in Brazil started producing corn ethanol in 2017. While the country’s ethanol still mainly comes from sugar cane processing, corn in less than a decade has grown to account for the base of nearly a fourth of production.

Mathuiy said Brazil is also seeking IMO technical approval of sugar cane ethanol and biodiesel made from soy and beef tallow for use in maritime transportation.

Meanwhile, companies are preparing to reduce their own carbon footprint in ocean journeys. Vale SA, the world’s largest iron ore producer, last month placed an initial order of two Guaibamax class ethanol-powered vessels.

 

Argentina’s agricultural export revenues fall slightly in April

Exports from Argentina’s agricultural sector totaled $2.495 billion in April, the CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters chamber said on Monday, down 1% from the same month a year earlier.

Revenues were up 23% from March

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, as well as a major corn and wheat supplier

“April saw an increase in the number of trucks arriving with corn and sunflower seeds,” the chamber said in a statement

Additionally, the first trucks carrying soybeans for industrial processing and subsequent export arrived, CIARA-CEC noted

 

Egypt aims for self-sufficiency in wheat for subsidised bread in 2028, minister says

Egypt, often the world’s biggest wheat importer, aims to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat for its heavily subsidised bread in 2028, Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk told Reuters on Tuesday.

Egypt needs 8.6 million tonnes of wheat for subsidised bread production, according to the draft budget for FY 2026/27.

 

DOJ plans to settle Agri Stats case, White House official says

The U.S. Department of Justice plans to settle its case against data company Agri Stats with an agreement officials hope will help drive down food costs, White House adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday.

The DOJ alleges Agri Stats’ weekly reports on meat pricing and sales enabled anti-competitive practices in the chicken, pork, and turkey industries. The case is scheduled to go to trial this month.

Agri Stats has called the claims baseless and said its services result in lower prices. A company representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Trump administration has been increasingly focused on affordability as Americans sour on how President Donald Trump has handled the rising cost of living.

MEAT-PACKING INDUSTRY PROBE

Speaking at the same press conference, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said the DOJ will use every law enforcement tool available to address rising food prices.

Prosecutors have reviewed more than 3 million documents and conducted interviews in their ongoing probe of the meat-packing industry, Blanche said. He urged whistleblowers to come forward and potentially claim financial awards for information.

“Multiple plant closures across the country, the current market structure, and high concentration in the industry indicate anti-competitive activity,” Blanche said without naming the companies involved.

Tyson Foods TSN.N, Cargill, JBS USA and National Beef Packing Company slaughter about 85% of U.S. grain-fattened cattle that become steaks, beef roasts and other cuts of meat in supermarkets.

The companies have been accused in private lawsuits of conspiring to inflate U.S. beef prices by restricting supply. They have denied wrongdoing. Tyson, Cargill and JBS have agreed to pay tens of millions of dollars to settle some claims.

Spokespeople for the companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Monday.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.