Global Ag News for Mar 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Tariffs to Be Weighed in March Farm Crop Report, USDA Says

A closely watched crop report due Tuesday will take existing trade tariffs into account as part of global forecasts for the world’s corn, soybeans and other farm products.

The US Department of Agriculture will look only at trade rules now in effect as part of its latest monthly world supply and demand report, known as WASDE, according to an agency spokesperson. The report assumes the policies will remain in effect for the time period covered unless an end date is specified.

The approach is consistent with established practices, the spokesperson said.

Donald Trump last week imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, but then gave a reprieve until April 2 on items that fall under the North American trade agreement, known as USMCA. The pause covers farm products ranging from canola oil and ethanol to sugar and avocados, while potash fertilizer is subject to a lower tariff.

Trump also has doubled his recent tariff on China to 20%, triggering retaliation from the Asian nation and biggest global importer for farm goods.

Read More: Trump’s On-Again, Off-Again Tariff Strategy Sows Confusion

The USDA’s monthly crop reports, known as WASDE, are closely watched by traders and farmers looking for signals on where global supply-and-demand trends are headed. Tuesday’s report will be scrutinized as the market tries to get a better grasp of how Trump’s tariff plans will impact agriculture commodities.

Farmers are anxious over the prospects of a trade war, which threatens to lock growers out of key export markets, leaving bins bursting. Tariffs have also made fertilizers more expensive, and farmers need more inputs to raise corn than soybeans.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil down 0.89.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 3/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil down 1.59.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.4% in SRW, up 1.2% in HRW, down 1.0% in HRS; Corn is down 0.1%; Soybeans down 0.1%; Soymeal down 4.3%; Soyoil up 4.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 67 yuan; Soymeal down 51; Soyoil down 94; Palm oil down 198; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 11.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 11 ringgit (-0.24%) at 4488.

 

There were changes in registrations (125 Soyoil, -281 Soymeal, -16 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 739 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,055 Soymeal; 363 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 10 were: SRW Wheat down 5,670 contracts, HRW Wheat up 192, Corn down 7,912, Soybeans up 10, Soymeal up 4,386, Soyoil up 6,561.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth will dominate the weather pattern across most of the U.S. through the next 7-10 days, barring the Western U.S. which is expected to be cooler than normal
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warmth between 1-5 °C above normal will prevail across the Center West and Southeast of Brazil through 10 days, before a milder pattern could arrive in the 11-15 day period
• EAST ASIA: Southern China could receive heavy precipitation up to 75 mm above normal through 10 days, while modest totals are expected elsewhere
• EUROPE: Significant warmth is expected in eastern Europe during the next 5 days, before a closer to normal pattern arrives in the 6-10 day period

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARGENTINA, WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTH BRAZIL REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the northwest Pampas, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in North and dry in South/Central Brazil

FORECAST

Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 2-3 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a positive phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.

Argentina/Paraguay: Cool temperatures (1 °C below normal) are expected across Central/North Argentina during the 5-day outlook. In the 6-10-day forecast, warm weather is expected across Argentina and then cool weather will arrive across the Pampas during the 11-15-day outlook. Wet spells (10-85  mm above normal) are expected across West/Northwest Argentina/northwest Pampas during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather (10-65 mm below normal) is expected across the central/east Pampas/Northeast Argentina during the same time. Wet weather may favor soybean development and delay corn harvesting across the northwest Pampas belts.

Brazil: Warm temperatures (2-4 °C above normal) will prevail across Brazil during the 10-day outlook. In the 11-15-day outlook, near normal to warm temperatures are expected across Brazil. Dry weather (10-55 mm below normal) is expected across South/Center West and wet weather (20-100 mm above normal) in North/few areas of Southeast Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may favor 1st corn harvesting/2nd corn planting/soybean across Brazil’s belts.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers southeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

Midwest East: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday, variable Sunday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 3/10 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 195,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began September 1, 2024.
• CORN SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 126,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Japan, also for 2025/25 delivery.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.82m Tons of Corn for Export, 844k of Soybeans

In week ending March 6, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,820k tons vs 1,353k the previous wk, 1,166k a yr ago
• Wheat: 216k tons vs 391k the previous wk, 486k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 844k tons vs 700k the previous wk, 785k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 6

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 6 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 276k tons of the 844k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat

 

Weekly USDA wheat ratings dip in Kansas, Texas; Oklahoma improves

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 52% of the winter wheat in top producer Kansas in “good to excellent” condition, down from 54% the previous week.

For Texas, the No. 2 winter wheat state by planted area, the USDA rated 28% of the crop as “good to excellent”, down from 34% a week earlier. However, for Oklahoma, the USDA rated 46% of the crop as “good to excellent”, an improvement from 35% last week, following much-needed rains in the state.

 

CROP SURVEY: Canada 2025 Wheat Planting Seen at 26.9M Acres

The following shows results of a Bloomberg survey of as many as five analysts about planting acreage of 2025 Canadian crops.

• Wheat planting seen slightly above the 2024 level, while canola seen slightly below
• Statistics Canada in Ottawa is scheduled to release its estimates on March 12 at 8:30am ET

 

China’s Imports of US Corn May Decline on Trade Tensions: CASDE

China’s corn imports from the US are expected to fall, the country’s agriculture ministry said, as trade tensions between the world’s top two economies escalate.

• However, any impact on the domestic market is likely to be limited as US shipments accounted for only about 15% of China’s total corn imports, the ministry said in its monthly report
• The Asian nation has sought to diversify its grain imports; it has turned to Brazil to purchase more corn
• Corn demand from China’s feed and processing sectors is good, according to the China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Stockpiler Sinograin continues to step up purchases for state reserves
• Sino-US trade policies will continue to impact corn and soybean markets
• China has imposed tariffs in a range of 10% and 15% on a raft of US farm products, including corn and soybeans. Beijing also announced a 100% duty on rapeseed oil and meal from Canada.
• China’s move on Canadian rapeseed oil will have limited impact on local edible oils supply in the short term, it said
• Production, demand and import estimates for corn, soybeans and edible oils for 2024-25 stay unchanged

 

Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest 61% complete, AgRural says

Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2024/25 season reached 61% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 11 percentage points from the previous week.

At the same time last year, 55% of the total area had been reaped, AgRural added in a statement.

The firm noted that there is still concern about soybean fields in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, where yields continue to drop as farmers grapple with hot and dry weather.

Lower yield projections in some areas including Rio Grande do Sul led AgRural in late February to trim its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop this season to 168.2 million metric tons from 171 million tons.

In most states harvesting efforts have been advancing at a strong pace, AgRural said, adding that in top grain-producing state Mato Grosso work in the fields could have been further ahead if not for excessive rainfall in some areas.

The consultancy also said that 92% of the expected second-corn area had been planted in Brazil’s center-south region as of Thursday, up 12 percentage points from the previous week and slightly below the 93% seen a year earlier.

Brazil’s second corn crop is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

“With sowing in the final stretch, the focus is now on crop development,” AgRural said. “Hotter, drier weather is worrying farmers in Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. But in Mato Grosso conditions are excellent.”

 

Paraguay Eyes Lower Soy Output After Record 2024: Trade Group

Paraguay could harvest as much as 9.5m metric tons of soybeans this year, down from record output that topped 11m metric tons in 2024, said Hugo Pastore, executive director of grain and oilseed export group Capeco.

• “It’s going to be a year with less volume than what we had last year. It’s not going to be catastrophic,” Pastore said in a telephone interview
  • Irregular rainfall trimmed the first soy harvest to around 8.5m metric tons from initial forecasts of 10m metric tons
  • Farmers are currently planting the smaller second soy crop that might yield as much as 1m metric tons
• Farmers are sitting on a significant portion of the first harvest as they wait for clearer price signals before selling
  • Argentina, which purchased 84% of Paraguay’s soybean exports last year, will continue to be the top buyer of Paraguayan soy

 

Argentina Atlantic Grain Terminals Closed After Storm: Nabsa

Grain terminals at the coastal city of Bahia Blanca are inoperative and without power after the port was flooded, shipping agency Nabsa said in a note to clients on Sunday night.

• NOTE: Argentina’s TGS Says Floods Affected Production in Cerri Complex
• NOTE: A storm flooded Bahia Blanca on the night of Mar. 7, killing 16 people
• NOTE: Bahia Blanca accounts for 12% of Argentina’s crop shipments, according to the Rosario Board of Trade
  • Terminals there are operated by Cargill, LDC, ADM, Bunge and Viterra-led Renova
  • City is also a key petrochemical hub

 

India’s edible oil imports hit 4-year low, depleting inventories

India’s edible oil imports in February plunged to their lowest level in four years, led by declines in soyoil and sunflower oil imports, dragging inventories to their lowest level in three years, a leading industry body said on Tuesday.

Lower-than-normal imports for the second straight month have depleted stocks in the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils. This could force India to increase purchases in the coming months, supporting Malaysian palm oil prices and U.S. soyoil futures.

The country’s palm oil imports last month rose 35.7% from January to 373,549 metric tons, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said in a statement.

India imported an average of more than 750,000 tons of palm oil every month in the marketing year that ended in October 2024, according to the SEA.

Imports of soyoil decreased 36% to 283,737 tons in February and sunflower oil imports fell 20.8% to 228,275 tons, the SEA said.

Lower shipments of soyoil and sunflower oil brought down the country’s total vegetable oil imports last month by 12% to 899,565 tons, the lowest since February 2021, the SEA said.

Edible oil stocks in India have fallen by 14% from a month ago to 1.87 million tons on March 1, the lowest in more than three years.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Palm oil and soyoil imports are likely to improve in March, as the industry has been trying to build stocks, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

Palm oil’s share of total vegetable oil imports fell to 43% in the first four months of the current marketing year, which ends in October 2025, from 66% a year ago, the SEA said.

 

India Wheat Output Seen at Record This Year: Ministry

India’s wheat production is estimated at an all-time high of 115.43 million tons in the year ending in June, according to a statement from the farm ministry.

• The country’s winter-sown food grain output is expected at 164.53 million tons in 2024-25
• Total winter-sown oilseed production seen at 14.03 million tons, according to second advance estimates by the ministry
• India’s rapeseed output likely at 12.87 million tons

 

Argentine rains boost conditions for upcoming wheat crop

Heavy rains over the past few days in Argentina, combined with the rainfall recorded since mid-February in the country’s main rural areas, are creating favorable conditions for the 2025/26 wheat harvest, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) said on Monday.

Farmers in Argentina, a key global grains exporter, are set to begin sowing their wheat crops in May.

Over the weekend, an average of between 40 mm (1.57 inches) and 50 mm (1.97 inches) of rain fell in Argentina’s agricultural heartland, adding to the rainfall reported nearly weekly over the past month.

“Useful water reserves are beginning to show signs of recovery in the deep strata of the soil in the center of the core region,” the BCR said in a report.

The central agricultural area in Argentina has endured years of water deficit and the humidity recovery in the soil will benefit the next harvest of fine grains, wheat and barley, the report added.

According to BCR data, Argentina produced a total of 19.3 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 harvest.

 

Brazil aims to boost food stocks in bid to fight inflation

Brazilian crop agency Conab, which plans to build up grain stocks in a bid to rein in rising food inflation, is seeking to change rules governing procurement contracts, agency head Edegar Pretto said on Monday.

The current rules were designed to help farmers when prices are low but the government faces new challenges, Pretto said in a statement to Reuters. These days it is “quite difficult” for grain prices to hit the minimum threshold required by rules of Conab grain procurement contracts, he added.

Boosting food stocks marks a policy shift from previous administrations and indicates the government is struggling to keep inflation in check.

Discussions are taking place to update the current guidelines, Pretto said.

“The rules serve to protect farmers’ income and not to build up stocks,” he said.

“More flexibility is required and the idea is to have a mechanism that allows the government to buy [grains] at a low price, always at a low price, so as not to make prices rise.”

Last week, Brazil slashed import tariffs on certain foodstuffs to bring down rising food prices, a measure which some analysts called ineffective.

The popularity of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has plunged as Brazilians are increasingly worried about creeping consumer prices.

Food and beverage prices rose around 8% in 2024 as a whole, according to statistics agency IBGE, and in January were up by nearly 1%, marking a fifth consecutive month of increase. February data will be released Wednesday.

Conab could use an additional 350 million reais ($60.4 million) this year to buy 445,000 metric tons of grains such as corn, rice and beans, Pretto said, confirming a report by newspaper Valor Economico.

Some 189 million reais has already been set aside for that purpose, Conab said.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Sellers remain away from closing trades; imports continue firm

Sellers continue away from closing wheat trades in the domestic market, limiting the amount available. Therefore, quotations rose for one more week. Moreover, purchasers with difficulties to trade large volumes of high-quality cereal have preferred to close international purchases.

Although imports dropped against the month before, the total in February increased in one year. The volume was 582.2 thousand tons, 18.8% down compared to January/25, but 10% more in relation to February/24 – data from Secex.

As a result, over the last 12 months, 6.8 million tons were imported, the highest amount for this period since June/19, due to the lower volume of high-quality product in the last crop in Brazil.

According to data from Cepea, between February 28 and March 7, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) upped 1.2% in Rio Grande do Sul, 2.3% in Paraná and 0.58% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 0.73% in São Paulo, 0.3% in Paraná, 0.11% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.22% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations downed 1.9% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.792 on March 7.

 

Coceral Trims EU 2025 Soft Wheat Harvest Forecast; Raises Corn

The EU and the UK’s 2025 combined grain harvest is now seen at 296.1 m tons, down from 297.8m tons forecast in December, industry group Coceral said Tuesday in a report.

• Forecast still places 2025 production higher than 2024
• For soft wheat, that’s due to a higher area sown and a return to normal yields in Western Europe
• Still, lower than initially expected plantings in France and the UK have started to weigh on the production outlook

 

Argentine Bahia Blanca grain port nears return to normal activity after storm

Activity at Argentina’s Bahia Blanca commercial grain port began to normalize on Monday after a severe storm disrupted operations on Friday, a port board member told Reuters.

The terminals are expected to be back to full normal operations on Tuesday, the port officer added.

Port city of Bahia Blanca, southwest of the capital Buenos Aires, is the second largest grain terminal in Argentina, although well behind the Rosario port conglomerate, in the Santa Fe province.

On Friday, more than 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of rain fell within a few hours in Bahia Blanca, causing severe flooding that killed at least 16 people and left severe structural damage in the city located some 600 kilometers (400 miles) from the capital.

“It is estimated that tomorrow (Tuesday) the port will be 100% operational because grain trucks are already entering,” Dolores Valdemoros, a member of the board of directors of the Port of Bahia Blanca, said in an interview.

“Ships are starting to enter. They are doing some tests to see if everything is ok,” she added.

In Argentina, a key global grains exporter, many ships complete their loading in Bahia Blanca after passing through Rosario. In January, 980,460 metric tons of grain were loaded in Bahia Blanca, according to data from the port.

 

Russia exports 275,000 tonnes of wheat to China in first 8M of current agricultural year, overtakes U.S. – Rusagrotrans

Russia exported 275,000 tonnes of wheat to China in the first eight months of the current agricultural year from July 2024 to February 2025 to exceed the volume of supplies from the United States for the first time, Rusagrotrans analytical center told Interfax.

“China has sharply reduced imports in the current season, including from the United States, amid a record harvest, and imported around 1 million tonnes from the main suppliers in 8M, including 275,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. For the first time, this is more than the volume imported from the United States at 147,000 tonnes,” Rusagrotrans said.

Canada has shipped around 500,000 tonnes to China since the start of the season, with minor volumes exported from the European Union and Australia.

Rusagrotrans data indicate that China imported significant volumes of wheat from the U.S. at 1 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes per season out of a total of 13-14 million tonnes in previous seasons.

Rusagrotrans also said that China has imposed a 15% tariff on wheat imports from the U.S. as of March 10 as a countermeasure.

 

 

 

 

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