Written Commentary
WASDE SUPPLY/DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
Today’s data was supportive for both corn and soybeans, neutral to bearish for wheat.
Corn:
- Old crop 24/25 ending stocks cut 50 mil. bu. to 1.415 bil. on higher exports, 30 mil. below expectations
- Brazil 2024/25 production rose 4 mmt to 130 mmt
- 2025 production forecast at a record 15.820 bil. bu. slightly above expectations
- Ave. 2025 yields at 181 bil. per acre
- New crop 25/26 ending stocks forecast to rise to only 1.80 bil. bu. more than 200 mil. below expectations
- Global stocks expected to drop nearly 10 mmt in 25/26 to 278 mmt nearly 20 mmt below expectations
Beans:
- Old crop 24/25 ending stocks cut 25 mil. bu. to 350 mil. on higher exports, at the low end of expectations
- Bean oil usage for biofuels down 150 mil. lbs., exports up 100 mil. lbs, imports down 50 mil. lbs.
- 2025 production forecast at 4.340 bil. bu. in line with expectations
- Ave. 2025 yield at a record 52.5 bil. per acre
- New crop 25/26 ending stocks forecast at 295 mil. bu. 65 mil. below expectations
- Global stocks in 25/26 expected to increase to 124 mmt, 2 mmt below expectations
Wheat:
- Old crop 24/25 ending stocks down 5 mil. bu. to 841 mil. on higher food usage at the low end of expectations
- All wheat production for 2025 forecast at 1.921 bil. 35 mil. above expectations
- Winter wheat production at 1.380 bil. up 31 mil. from YA vs. expectations of down 25 mil.
- HRW production – 784 mil. SRW – 345 mil., and white – 206 mil.
- 2025/26 ending stocks expected to rise to 923 mil. 60 mil. above expectations and a 7 year high
- Global stocks for 25/26 little changed at 266 mmt, however above expectations
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