Global Ag News for Feb 27.2025

TOP HEADLINES

India braces for scorching March, wheat crop at risk, sources say

India is poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest March months on record, and above-average temperatures throughout most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop, two weather bureau sources said.

India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, after three consecutive years of poor crop yields since 2022.

Higher temperatures could reduce yields for the fourth straight year, trimming overall production and forcing authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate overseas shipments to tide over shortages.

“March is going to be unusually hot this year. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month,” said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.

The IMD is expected to release its forecast for March temperatures on Friday.

Day temperatures are expected to start rising from the second week of March, and by the end of the month, maximum temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) in many states, the official said.

After a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March shrivelled the wheat crop, India was forced to ban exports of the staple in 2022.

India’s wheat-growing states in the central and northern belts are likely to see a sudden jump in maximum temperatures from the second week of March, with temperatures potentially rising up to 6 degrees Celsius above average, said the second IMD official.

“March is not going to be conducive for wheat, chickpea and rapeseed. Crops could experience heat stress,” he said.

Winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.

Indian wheat prices jumped to a record high this month due to dwindling supplies.

“February was pretty warm. If March stays hotter than normal, wheat production could take a big hit,” said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil unchanged.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 27 3/4 in SRW, down 26 3/4 in HRW, down 29 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/2; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 1.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 8 3/4; Soymeal down $5.20; Soyoil down 0.93.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 1.9% in SRW, up 4.6% in HRW, up 0.8% in HRS; Corn is up 4.6%; Soybeans up 3.3%; Soymeal down 4.1%; Soyoil up 13.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 65 yuan; Soymeal up 25; Soyoil up 32; Palm oil down 62; Corn up 16 — Malaysian Palm is down 100.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 100 ringgit (-2.17%) at 4511.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 94 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 26 were: SRW Wheat down 2,609 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,644, Corn down 6,754, Soybeans down 25,980, Soymeal down 7,782, Soyoil down 1,826.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 FEBRUARY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: According to the latest SMAP data, soil moisture is at an adequate level across the HRW areas but still deficient in many SRW wheat regions of the Midwest
• SOUTH AMERICA: South-Central and Southeast Brazil will record high rainfall deficits for the next 2 weeks, with a negative impact on sugarcane, coffee, and all developing crops in the region
• AUSTRALIA: Sugarcane across Australia will continue to suffer from hot and dry weather into early March
• ASIA: Heat will retreat from the Indian wheat areas in the coming days but is likely to return in mid-March
• TROPICS: TC Alfred moving offshore of NE Australia and TC Honde near southern Madagascar are the main systems impacting shipping across the Southern Hemisphere

 

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS CROP AREAS OF ARGENTINA

What to Watch:

• Heavy rains in Argentina may impact early harvests and cause local flooding
• Warm and dry weather in South-Central and Southeast Brazil will continue to affect all developing crops but will facilitate rapid harvests

FORECAST

Discussion:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation will stagnate near the moderate 8-1 phase event over the next 10 days before weakening to a dormant level. This supports rainfall activity focused on northern Brazil, with persisting dryness in the Southeast. In Argentina, it usually makes for a warm outlook.

Numerical models performance:

EC and GFS performed similarly for the 10-day forecast, although the GFS remains slightly better on precipitation in Brazil. The current trend suggests high confidence in the short-term forecast.

ARGENTINA:

High temperatures will continue at least for the next 10 days across the Pampas, with anomalies between 1-3 °C above normal and the warmest conditions in the north. All forecasts agreeably suggest a very active precipitation pattern, with widespread rains in most of the regions lasting until the end of next week. 10-day totals may reach 150-200 mm, although the AI-based forecasts suggest a slightly lower outcome.

Rains should be still present in the week after next, accompanied by a slow cooling trend.

Crop impact:

Heightened rainfall activity will increase soil moisture levels and benefit late-developing crops, but the risk of local floodings will also rise. It may impact early harvest and contains some risk of crop damage from heavy showers.

BRAZIL:

Heat and dryness will persist over South, Southeast, and East Brazil through the next 10-15 days. Temperatures in these areas will oscillate between 2-6 °C above normal and a weak rainfall pattern will result in deficits between 30-60 mm below normal/10 days. Milder conditions are expected in Central West, with near-normal temperatures and precipitation totals. The main rainfall activity will remain focused on North Brazil, mostly in Para and Maranhao (surpluses of 40-70 mm above normal/10 days).

The potential for wetter conditions in the South during the 11-15 days of the forecast is still relatively weak, despite being suggested by a part of the models (e.g. GFS Op).

According to the recent monthly forecasts, a similar temperature outlook is expected in March, with potential for moderate rains in the South and Central West but still hot and dry in the Southeast.

Crop impact:

A warm/dry outlook in key soybean/corn areas in the center will support the soybean harvest and a change into 2nd corn. However, it remains unfavorable for developing crops, including sugarcane in South-Central Brazil and coffee in Minas Gerais with soil moisture levels already hitting 6-year lows.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures remain on the warmer side into early next week. Even as clipper systems pass by the region through the rest of this week, precipitation will remain light and most areas will remain on the drier side. A larger system from the West could provide more widespread showers early next week, but in the wake of this system, temperatures are likely to fall closer to average.

Central/Southern Plains: Showers will remain spotty throughout the region for the remainder of the week and temperatures will be on the warmer side. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers. Temperatures will take a dive below normal later next week in the wake of the larger system, but the cold won’t be as intense as the mid-February arctic blast.

Midwest: Snow cover will continue to diminish through the rest of the week with warmer temperatures in place. Several clippers will continue to pass through Wednesday-Friday, but with overall limited precipitation and potentially breezy conditions. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week that could provide a band of heavy snow, followed by milder air.

Lower Mississippi: After water levels crested in many spots this past weekend, water levels should start falling later this week and weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. The risk for heavier rain and thunderstorms returns through the first half of next week with a cool down expected afterwards.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 26 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 65,000 to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 133,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 25,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Feb. 20.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,650k tons, with avg of 1,163k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 600k tons, with avg of 409k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 5.2% to 27.571M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.087 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.081m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.047m

 

US Jan. Pork Supplies in Cold Storage Dropped to 410M Pounds

• Total pork fell 11.5% from Jan. of last year
• Pork belly supplies dropped to 42.3m pounds from 62.4m last year
• Beef supplies fell to 463.3m pounds from 464.6m last year

 

Argentine oilseed union threatens strike in key soy processing plants

Argentina’s main oilseed union SOEA is threatening a national strike in soybean processing plants over a salary dispute at exports conglomerate Vicentin, a union leader said on Wednesday.

SOEA secretary Martin Morales told Reuters that Vicentin must pay February wages and that the potential work stoppage would also involve other unions.

The company, based in Santa Fe province, was once the country’s largest marketer of processed soybeans, which for years have been Argentina’s most valuable export.

Morales added that after a Santa Fe court ruling from last week that found an agreement between Vicentin and its lenders unconstitutional, no new deals have been signed for the rental of its facilities past February.

A source close to Vicentin told Reuters that the company warned oilseed workers about a risk of defaulting on payments following the ruling, stating that the processor was working to extend the rental of facilities and reverse the situation.

“The company was left in a very delicate situation and the responsibility, among others, lies with the Supreme Court of Santa Fe that made a ridiculous ruling,” the source added.

According to a SOEA statement on Tuesday, after union leaders met with Vicentin executives, the company said it might not be able to pay worker salaries.

While Vicentin has paused its own operations, other firms pay to rent out its facilities. In the past, Vicentin has disclosed that its three plants had a combined daily crushing capacity of 21,000 metric tons along with a storage capacity of more than 1.2 million tons, including source materials and byproducts, according to the company’s website data.

Since 2020, it has been mired in bankruptcy proceedings after announcing a year earlier a stop to payments worth more than $1 billion.

 

Russia’s IKAR cuts 2024/25 wheat export forecast to 42.5 mln tonnes

Russia’s IKAR consultancy said on Thursday that it had cut its 2024/25 wheat export forecast to 42.5 million tonnes from 43 million.

IKAR also trimmed its 2025 wheat production estimate to 81 million tonnes from 82 million, in a base level scenario.

It cut the wheat production estimate to 85 million tonnes from 87 million, in an optimistic scenario, and maintained its forecast of 77 million in a pessimistic scenario.

 

Ukraine may cut 2025 soybeans area by 10-15%, deputy minister says

Ukraine is likely to cut 2025 soybeans area by 10-15%, and sunflower by 5% in favour of corn, first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters on Thursday.

Vysotskiy also said that the winter crops were mostly in good condition despite a spell of sub-zero temperatures so far this month as the fields were covered with snow.

Due to drought, Ukraine may also cut its sugar beet sowing area to 230,000 hectares compared to 253,000 in 2024, according to the head of the sugar union Yana Kavushevska.

Ukraine is a major agricultural product producer and Europe’s largest soybean exporter. Its vibrant agribusiness sector has been hit hard by Russia’s invasion in February 2022 as farmers had to reduce the sowing area after large areas had been either occupied or mined.

Last year, the Ukrainian soybean output reached an all-time high of 6 million metric tons.

 

Improving harvest pace bodes well for Brazil soybean production prospects

2024/25 Brazil: 170.4 [166.9–173.5] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil soybean production is fractionally (<1%) increased to 170.4 [166.9–173.5] million tons, thanks to improving weather and harvest progress amid late season activities in full swing. A record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Our current position is above both the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 169 million tons (released on 11 February) and the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 166 million tons (released on 13 February).

The past two weeks featured a continued trend of fairly dry weather across Brazil’s major agricultural areas. Essentially all of the Central-West, the South, and the Southeast maintained rainfall anywhere from 10-80 mm below average, or less than 70 mm in total, with the key exceptions being Rio Grande do Sul and southern Paraná, which received a much-awaited near to above normal precipitation. Temperatures were largely within 3.0 °C of normal, though some great volatility was observed especially in southern production areas. Overall much drier conditions with mild temperatures compared to recent months have been in store since early February, helping farmers pick up harvest pace. As of 23 February, Brazil’s soybeans were 36.4% harvested nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 24 February), now almost on par with last year’s pace of 38% though some local delays remain prevalent. Most severe delays are currently observed in Mato Grosso do Sul (e.g. 32% combined so far vs. 47% last year) and São Paulo (e.g. 10% harvested vs. last year’s 25% around the same time), which are consequently leading to severe Safrinha crop planting delays in respective regions. Delays in soy harvest could leave a significant portion of the second corn crop to be sown outside its optimal window, potentially inducing adverse yield impacts later in the season. Looking ahead, most crop areas of the Central-West/Southeast should continue to see below normal precipitation but near/above average rains are likely across most northern crop areas and potentially the far South as well, warranting attention. Overall, this season’s soybean yield/production potential should be well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Brazil corn production slightly up on favorable March weather outlooks

2024/25 Brazil: 125.5 [118.3–130.2] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil total corn production is slightly (<1%) raised to 125.5 [118.3–130.2] million tons, thanks to improving first crop harvest pace and second crop sowing progress, amid overall favorable March weather outlooks over key Safrinha crop areas of the Central-West/South during the crop’s early development period. Our current position is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 126 million tons (released on 11 February), but well above the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 122 million tons (released on 13 February).

The past two weeks featured a continued trend of fairly dry weather across Brazil’s major agricultural areas. Essentially all of the Central-West, the South, and the Southeast maintained rainfall anywhere from 10-80 mm below average, or less than 70 mm in total, with the key exceptions being Rio Grande do Sul and southern Paraná, which received a much-awaited near to above normal precipitation. Temperatures were largely within 3.0 °C of normal, though some great volatility was observed especially in southern production areas. Overall much drier conditions with mild temperatures compared to recent months have been in store since early February, helping farmers pick up planting/harvest pace, though some local delays are still prevalent. As of 23 February, Brazil’s first corn was 20.9% harvested and second corn 53.6% planted nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 24 February). While first corn harvest progress is now largely back on track (except in Paraná/Santa Catarina) thanks to recent favorable weather across the Southeast and the South, the second crop Safrinha corn planting delays remain pronounced despite recent improvements, warranting attention. The national-level delay is mostly being dictated by the top Safrinha corn producers Mato Grosso (currently at 67.7% vs. last year’s 77.4%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (currently at 27% vs. last year’s 40%)’s sowing pace, due to soybean harvest delays there. Delays in soy crop progress could leave a significant portion of the safrinha corn crop to be sown outside its optimal planting window, as the safrinha crop is planted after soybeans are harvested. This may subsequently have an adverse impact on yield caused by rightward growth curve shifts, warranting attention.

 

U.S. winter wheat production unchanged but low soil moisture risks remain high

2025/26 U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION: 36.4 [34.5–38.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2025/26 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production remain unchanged at 33.4 million acres and 36.4 [34.5–38.2] million tons, respectively, but low soil moisture levels across the soft red winter (SRW) wheat belt and spring freeze risks over the coming weeks warrant attention.

The past 15 days featured a largely unfavorable weather pattern across the hard red winter wheat (HRW) crop areas of the Central and Northern Plains. Blasts of Arctic air have been transported into most of the region during the period of February 17th to 20th, dropping temperatures occasionally to the winterkill threshold of -10°F or lower in the Dakotas, Montana, Nebraska and northern Kansas. The majority of these areas had at least 1 inch or more of insulating snow cover, however, adequate enough to protect the dormant crop from significant damage. Snow cover was largely absent throughout Oklahoma and Texas (and some parts of Missouri and areas to the east), exposing the crop to the cold air, but temperatures there were not as low and remained above the winterkill level until the snowstorm arrived. The true extent of anomalous cold will not be known until later in the season when the crop exits dormancy.

The current soil moisture levels are relatively decent across the key hard red winter (HRW) wheat regions in the Plains such as Kansas, Oklahoman and Texas, but alarmingly low throughout the SRW belt in the Upper Midwest (Illinois, Michigan and Ohio in particular), warranting attention. Winterkill threats should be virtually nonexistent moving forward, but temperature risks remain as March could be a volatile month. If a warm early March were to be followed by sudden cold temperatures, spring freeze risk on the winter wheat crop could be elevated due to crops being pulled out of dormancy earlier than expected.

 

USDA Chief Must Explain If Farm Funds Not Released, Booker Says

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins needs to be held accountable if stalled payments under the Trump administration aren’t immediately released to farmers, many of whom are struggling to stay solvent, Democratic US Senator Cory Booker said.

• If the funding isn’t issued soon, the US Senate Agriculture Committee should quickly call Rollins in to explain why, Booker said during a panel hearing on the farm economy
• Farmers who invested money in conservation techniques like cover cropping and irrigation systems, with promises of government reimbursement, are now in immediate crisis, Booker said
• USDA officials didn’t immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for comment
• Booker said he agreed with Senator Jim Justice, a West Virginia Republican, who said if critical issues aren’t addressed, like crop insurance, family farms are at risk of vanishing and the US food system will be severely damaged
• Democratic Senator Tina Smith of Minnesota said farmers in her state are worried that the funding freeze and USDA staff cuts will make it much harder to deal with issues like crop disease outbreaks and farmer financial safety net issues

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.