Global Ag News for Feb 25.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Egg-Laying Hens at Nine-Year Low as Bird Flu Decimates US Flock

America’s flock of egg-laying hens dropped to the lowest since 2016 in January as avian influenza resulted in the death of millions of birds, driving egg prices to record levels.

Eggs have been setting new highs every week this year with fewer chickens hatching eggs. Supplies are running thin at grocery stores, sparking purchase limits, while restaurants such as Denny’s are adding surcharges.

The number of layers fell to about 363 million in January, down 3.8% from a year ago, US Department of Agriculture data showed Monday. Egg production of 8.865 billion was down 4.2% and the lowest for the month since 2016 — when there was a previous major outbreak of bird flu.

More bird flu cases are still coming in, including a commercial egg operation in Darke County, Ohio, where more than 3 million birds were affected last week, according to the USDA.

Farmers are also bracing for wild birds to begin their migration. “Once birds start flying back north as the weather warms up, flu cases could start rising,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Justin Barlup said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil up 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 16 in HRW, down 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil down 0.70.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 1/2 in SRW, up 16 3/4 in HRW, up 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $9.30; Soyoil up 0.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.9% in SRW, up 6.1% in HRW, up 4.2% in HRS; Corn is up 4.6%; Soybeans up 3.1%; Soymeal down 5.3%; Soyoil up 15.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 23 yuan; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil down 60; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 6.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 6 ringgit (+0.13%) at 4565.

There were changes in registrations (-168 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 94 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 24 were: SRW Wheat down 4,028 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,391, Corn down 21,997, Soybeans down 13,019, Soymeal down 14,363, Soyoil down 6,968.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 24 FEBRUARY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth is expected to prevail across much of North America through at least the next 10 days, though the picture is more opaque thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth up to 6 °C above normal is expected across the southern half of Brazil during the next 1-2 weeks
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Wet weather is expected across most of Vietnam during the next 10-14 days, with the largest anomalies in and around the South Central Coast
• AFRICA: Wet weather is expected across much of South Africa during the next 1-2 weeks, with the largest totals expected in the eastern regions of the country

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH BRAZIL AND CENTRAL/NORTH ARGENTINA

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn/soybean development
• Wet weather in North and dry in South/Central Brazil

FORECAST

Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 8-2 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a positive phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.

Argentina/Paraguay: Warm temperatures (1 °C above normal) are expected across Central/North Argentina during the 10-day outlook. In the 11-15-day outlook, cool temperatures (1 °C below normal) are expected across the Pampas and warmth (1 °C above normal) in North Argentina. Moderate to heavy rains (30-225 mm above normal) are expected across the Pampas and dry in Northeast Argentina during the 15-day outlook. Wet weather may favor corn/soybean development across the Pampas belts.

Brazil: Warm temperatures (2-6 °C above normal) will prevail across Brazil during the 10-day outlook. In the 11-15-day outlook, warm temperatures (2-5 °C above normal) are expected across South, Center West/Southeast and cool (1 °C below normal) in North Brazil. Wet  spells (20-130 mm above normal) are expected across North/north Center West and  dry (10-95 mm below normal) in South/Southeast/east Center West Brazil during  the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may favor 1st corn harvesting/2nd corn planting across the Center West Brazil. Dry weather may be a concern for coffee development across the Southeast, while wet weather may help the north Center West’s soybean belts.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 24 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat for shipment to the small ports of Mostaganem and/or Tenes
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

USDA Downgrades Oklahoma Winter Wheat to 34% Good/Excellent

The following table shows the most current winter wheat conditions for Oklahoma and Texas as of Feb. 23, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

• Oklahoma conditions declined by 6 percentage points from the state’s last reporting on Feb. 2
• In Texas, where conditions have been reported weekly since mid-Jan., crops rated good/excellent rose by 4 percentage points from the previous week

 

US Inspected 1.134m Tons of Corn for Export, 859k of Soybeans

In week ending Feb. 20, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 376k tons vs 250k the previous wk, 482k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,134k tons vs 1,623k the previous wk, 1,289k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 859k tons vs 727k the previous wk, 1,060k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Feb. 20

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Feb. 20 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 484k tons of the 859k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Trump Says Planned Tariffs on Canada, Mexico ‘Going Forward’

President Donald Trump said tariffs scheduled to hit Canada and Mexico next month were “on time” and “moving along very rapidly” following an initial delay, even as a US official cautioned the schedule could be less certain.

Trump was asked if the tariffs, which he delayed until March 4, would go into effect next week as he fielded questions during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron. Canada and Mexico have implemented new border measures in an effort to stave off the tariffs, which Trump says he is levying in a bid to halt flows of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs such as fentanyl.

“The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump responded.

But following the remarks, a US official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the fate of the special 25% levy on Canada and Mexico — tied to border security demands — was still to be determined. Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs that could hit all countries, including Canada and Mexico, will go forward in April, the official said.

Trump did pivot later in his response to discuss his plan to impose those tariffs. The Commerce Department is currently calculating the rate it will impose on other countries, promising to incorporate both tariffs and other barriers on US imports.

“We want to have the same — so if somebody charges us, we charge them. It’s very simple,” Trump said. “But it’ll be very good for our country. Our country will be extremely liquid and rich again.”

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Harvest 39% Done as of Feb. 20

Pace compares with 23% a week earlier and 40% in the same period last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Higher temperatures and spaced out rains helped boost harvesting in the country’s Center-South region, according to AgRural
• 2024/25 soy output now estimated at 168.2 million metric tons, from 171 million seen in January
• Winter corn seeding in the Center-South of Brazil was 64% completed, compared to 36% in the previous week and 73% a year ago
• Summer corn harvest reaches 37% in the Center-South, versus 29% a week earlier and 42% in the same period last year

 

European Winter Crops Mostly in ‘Fair to Good’ Condition: MARS

Winter crops in most parts of the European Union are in fair to good condition, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday.

• However, “irreversible losses to yield potentials” have occurred in some parts of the EU, but more seriously in neighboring regions, particularly eastern Ukraine, Morocco and Algeria
• In northwest France in January, heavy rainfall combined with high soil moisture and relatively low temperatures created unfavorable conditions for crop development
• Rainfall deficit raises concerns in central and eastern Europe
  • Winter crops in western Romania and Bulgaria suffered from limited water availability since the start of the season, leading to possible crop area reduction and resowing in spring
  • In eastern Ukraine, rainfall deficit has prevented any crop recovery from poor conditions during emergence; lack of snow cover and expected colder-than-usual conditions raise additional concerns
• Lack of precipitation in southeast Turkey since late December may affect fields that are not irrigated and raise concerns about the sustainability of water reservoirs throughout the season
• Drought has again thwarted yield expectations in the western and central North Africa

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Supply of high-quality wheat is low; values continue on the rise

Wheat prices continue in an upward trend in Brazil. Purchasers claim to have difficulties to find high-quality product and, therefore, prioritize international trades. Sellers are away from closing deals, since they have low stocks, expecting higher prices in the coming months – offseason in Brazil. As a result, trades involving high-quality wheat (PH 78 or above) are currently limited.

Meanwhile, producers have started planning the new crop. For the time being, official data indicate a decrease of 2.1% in the area in Brazil, but productivity is expected to grow, resulting in higher supply in 2025 compared to the year before. However, funding difficulties may affect the results of the next season.

According to data from Cepea, between February 14 and 21, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) upped 0.7% in Rio Grande do Sul, 1.3% in Santa Catarina and 0.78% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values remained stable in São Paulo, but rose 2% in Paraná and 0.43% in Rio Grande do Sul, while they dropped 4.3% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations increased 0.44% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.728 on February 21.

BYPRODUCTS – Crushing activities were more reduced last week, due to the lower demand for byproducts.

CONAB – The National Company for Food Supply resumed building wheat stocks after 11 years. The Company purchased 7.2 thousand tons from producers in Rio Grande do Sul.

IMPORTS – In the first 10 producing days of February, Brazil imported 265.45 thousand tons of wheat, practically half the volume verified in the entire same month last year (529.14 thousand tons), according to data from Secex.

 

Data shows slower pace of Brazil soybean exports in February

The pace of soybean exports from Brazil during the first three weeks of February is 29% below the daily average compared to the same month last year, totaling 246,500 metric tons per day, official data showed on Monday.

Brazil is the world’s top soybean exporter.

Total soybeans shipped since the beginning of February has reached 3.7 million tons, according to the data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), while soybean shipments during the full month last February totaled 6.6 million tons.

 

AgRural lowers forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop

Agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Monday trimmed its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop, citing lower yield projections in the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul following a lack of rainfall.

AgRural expects Brazil to produce 168.2 million metric tons this season, it said in a statement, down from the 171 million it had estimated in January.

The consultancy said that farmers in the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter had harvested 39% of the planted area as of Thursday, up 16 percentage points from the previous week and in line with the 40% at this time last year.

“Higher temperatures, more spaced-out rains and the pressure to plant the corn crop within the ideal window gave a strong boost to the harvest in the Brazil’s center-west,” AgRural said, with the biggest grain-producing state Mato Grosso leading the way.

Delays to harvesting the soy crop usually affect planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, which is cultivated in the same areas as the oilseed and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

Sowing of the 2025 second corn harvest had reached 64% of the expected area as of Thursday, AgRural said, up significantly from the 36% reported a week ago but below the 73% planted at the same time last year.

 

Recent rains in Argentina mark ‘inflection point’ for soy, corn crops

Recent heavy rainfall across much of Argentina’s agricultural heartland is likely to continue over the next few days and mark an “inflection point” for the current soybean and corn crops, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said on Monday.

More than 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) of rain soaked farmland over the last few days, helping to cement a recovery from drought conditions and a heat wave that hit 2024/25 crops in late January and earlier this month.

Argentina is a major grains exporter, with sales from shipments of processed soybeans, corn and wheat providing a key source of hard currency for central bank coffers.

“Precipitation over the last few days is marking a turning point for the agricultural cycle,” the BCR report said.

The report also cited Cristian Russo, BCR’s chief of agricultural forecasts, stressing the importance of rains this week for the health of the key grain crops, including in other major farm areas.

Earlier this month, the BCR cut its forecasts for the 2024/25 soybean and corn harvests due to dry conditions and high temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere’s summer, estimating the soybean crop at 47.5 million metric tons and corn at 46 million tons.

Meteorologist German Heinzenknecht, a specialist with the CCA consultancy, also pointed to the likelihood of more rainfall in the coming days, including over central, northern and northeastern agricultural areas, where additional moisture is still needed. He said he expects that the final stretch of February will mark a “humid transition” to March.

“The panorama is very favorable in terms of rainfall,” he added, while cautioning that rainfall expected this week could drench some areas in Buenos Aires Province with excessive precipitation.

 

Palm oil supplies to remain tight for next 2-3 months, says KLK

Palm oil supplies are likely to remain tight for the next two to three months as floods have affected production in the world’s top two producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, a leading palm oil producer told Reuters on Tuesday.

Lower production in key producing countries could support benchmark futures, and sustain the commodity’s premium over competing oils.

“Supply in the next two to three months will be tight,” said Lee Oi Hian, Executive Chairman of Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad, which has plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Palm oil yields in the first two months of the year have been affected by the floods, especially in Sabah, Malaysia and Indonesia, Lee said on the sidelines of the palm and lauric oils conference.

The industry could feel the impact of the floods even in the longer term as usually higher rainfall leads to poor pollination and creates other problems, he said.

He maintained, however, that production would recover in the second half of the year.

Palm oil production growth has slowed in Malaysia since 2019 and now output growth has been slowing in Indonesia as well because of ageing trees, Lee said in a presentation earlier on Tuesday.

 

Ukraine Corn Output Seen at 30.5m Tons in 25/26: UkrAgroConsult

Ukraine’s corn production for the 2025/26 season is seen at 30.5m tons, according to initial forecasts by UkrAgroConsult.

• That’s up 17% from the current season
• Higher production is seen due to larger production area and better yields
• Total area used for corn is seen at 4.2m hectares

 

Dry Weather Sees Australian Winter Crop Decline After Record

The amount of Australian winter broadacre crops — including wheat, barley and canola — sold in 2023-24 fell 27% to 50 million tons, driven by dry conditions and generally lower yields, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

• A drop in amount of broadacre crops sold drove a 29% drop in value to A$18.7 billion
  • “After having one of the best seasons on record in 2022-23, the drier conditions across large parts of Australia led to 27% less winter broadacre crop production being sold nationally and generally lower yields,” said Rob Walter, ABS head of agriculture statistics
• There was 28mt of wheat sold in 2023-24, a 32% fall from year prior
• Local value of wheat fell 35% in 2023-24 to A$8.8b
• Wheat, barley and canola remain the 3 largest crops in terms of local value, accounting for A$16.5b

 

Malaysia’s Palm Industry to Be Key Renewables Supplier: Minister

Palm oil has the potential to become an alternative energy source as Malaysia gradually phases out coal-fired power plants, according to a senior government official.

• All palm oil mills and refineries are expected to operate using renewable energy within the next decade, according to Plantations and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani
• “Although this transition cannot take place overnight, the government envisions the palm oil industry becoming a significant producer of renewable energy in Malaysia,” Johari said at an industry conference Tuesday
• Ministry plans to work closely with Tenaga Nasional Berhad and the country’s Energy Commission to expand grid connectivity and ensure seamless integration of renewable energy from the palm oil industry
• Malaysia is in a strong position to become a regional leader in sustainable aviation fuel production due to its well-developed palm ecosystem
• Malaysia committed to increasing yield without expanding land use by enforcing a no-deforestation policy
• Malaysia’s palm oil industry will be fully compliant with the European Union’s deforestation regulation’s sustainable practices upon the new deadlines, and will ensure transparency and traceability that’s aligned with international regulations
• “Sustainability is no longer a corporate check box, but instead, an existential business strategy”: Johari

 

Argentina loosens regulations on transit along key grains transport river

Argentina loosened safety regulations on shipments traveling along a key grains transport river, a move which could boost cargo moved through the waterway up to 7%, the nation’s security minister said on Monday.

Ships traveling along the Parana-Paraguay waterway will now be able to carry more cargo, Security Minister Patricia Bullrich said on X, adding it would make firms more efficient and reduce costs but without affecting safety.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and flour, the third-largest exporter of corn and a top wheat supplier. More than 80% of the nation’s agricultural exports are shipped along the river.

“With clear rules, predictability and firm decisions, we guarantee a more competitive waterway,” Bullrich said.

The Rosario Grains Exchange called the tweak in regulations “important progress” toward improving efficiency for agricultural exports.

The nation’s ports chamber and grains export chamber did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The government has renewed its focus on the waterway in recent weeks after an auction process for maintenance contracts of the Parana River was embroiled in scandal and scrapped.

A fresh tender will be launched after a probe into possible sabotage of the auction is wrapped up. Just one firm, Belgian dredger DEME Group DEME.BR, bid in the initial round. DEME said it did not know why others did not compete, though the government is looking into potential “pressure” by DEME onto its competitors.

DEME however said that the tender had been biased in favor of Jan de Nul, the current concession holder.

 

Egypt Wheat Stocks Sufficient for 5 Months: Supply Minister

Domestic wheat consumption is 750k tons/month, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk says in a television interview.

• Nation’s grain silo storage capacity is 5m tons
• Egypt’s total grain consumption is 20m-21m tons/year
• Vegetable oil stocks enough for 5 months
• Vegetable oil, wheat import bill $2.4b/year
• Sugar inventories enough for 12 months
• Egypt has achieved self-sufficiency in sugar and rice

 

Oil trade group pushes US for national ethanol policy after EPA okays Midwest expansion

The American Petroleum Institute trade group on Monday pressed for a nationwide policy on higher-ethanol blends of gasoline after the President Donald Trump’s administration said on Friday it would move ahead with expanded sales of the product in certain Midwestern states.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Feb. 21 it would uphold an April 28 implementation date for a request from eight Midwest governors to allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a blend known as E15.

EPA’s action is meant to enable both E15 and the more widely available E10 fuel blends to be sold during the summer, where the existing policy often keeps E15 out of the market. The change was sought by Midwestern governors and first charted under former President Joe Biden.

While biofuel producers have long wanted expanded sales of the E15 blend, they would prefer a nationwide solution that goes beyond just the Midwest region. The API also prefers a nationwide policy, as some industry players worry a fragmented market could lead to localized supply disruptions.

API told Reuters the EPA’s decision to go ahead with the Midwest expansion reflects the need for Congressional action for a nationwide solution.

This “would prevent a patchwork of state-by-state policies while ensuring consumers have access to the fuels they depend on every day,” said Will Hupman, API’s vice president of downstream policy.

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators this month reintroduced a bill that would allow nationwide sales of E15.

Meanwhile, other oil groups such as the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and the Fueling American Jobs Coalition spoke out against the EPA’s decision.

AFPM “calls on the affected Governors to protect consumers in their states from likely increased gasoline costs and supply disruptions by requesting more time for the market to prepare,” said Geoff Moody, senior vice president of government relations and policy at AFPM.

The EPA’s action will apply to Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, though EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said the agency will consider granting one-year delays for states that seek additional compliance time, something already sought by Ohio.

The agency’s decision is an early indicator of the new Trump administration’s approach to biofuel policy.

During Trump’s first term, some debates pitting oil refiners against biofuel producers reached the president, prompting the EPA to weigh policy shifts on the treatment of refiners and federal quotas mandating use of the alternative fuels.

 

US Egg Production Fell 4.2% in January From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 8.86b eggs in January vs 9.25b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 4.8% y/y to 7.57b
• Hatching eggs down 0.4% to 1.3b

 

 

 

 

 

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