Global Ag News for Feb 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US Green Diesel Output Plunges as Firms Await Trump Biofuel Plan

US production of lower-polluting diesel meant to fight climate change plummeted last month as biofuel policy stalls in Washington.

Diesel made with sustainable materials like soybeans, used cooking oil and waste animal fats fell 43% in January from the prior month, the biggest such decline in at least four years, according to data from the US Environmental Protection Agency.

President Donald Trump, a fan of both fossil fuels and farmers, hasn’t said yet how he will proceed with a so-called clean fuel tax credit that took effect last month under the Inflation Reduction Act. While the Biden administration issued partial guidance on the credit, some biofuel producers say more details are urgently needed, including whether Trump intends to build on the incentive or scrap it and start from scratch.

With the lack of visibility, some companies are pulling back on production, said Donnell Rehagen, chief executive officer of Clean Fuels Alliance America, which represents biomass-based diesel producers. “There is a backlog beginning and it’s going to get worse and worse and worse until we get some clear guidance.”

Billions of dollars have been invested to significantly ramp up capacity in the US to make more climate-friendly diesel. The lower-emitting fuel has been heralded as a solution to cut carbon emissions in hard-to-electrify modes of transportation.

The industry developed by soybean farmers in the 1990s has gone from struggling in the early 2000s to reaching 5 billion gallons of annual production in 2024, up nearly 10% from a year earlier.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 3/4 in SRW, down 10 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 9 3/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 1.15.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 31 1/2 in SRW, up 33 3/4 in HRW, up 26 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 19 3/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal down $5.70; Soyoil up 1.15.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.8% in SRW, up 9.1% in HRW, up 6.3% in HRS; Corn is up 8.6%; Soybeans up 4.7%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 18.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 54 yuan; Soymeal up 46; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 114; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 22.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 22 ringgit (+0.47%) at 4664.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 20 were: SRW Wheat down 971 contracts, HRW Wheat down 286, Corn down 2,395, Soybeans up 7,078, Soymeal up 2,459, Soyoil up 309.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures are rising quickly across the region and will be above normal over the weekend, flipping dramatically. Clippers moving through Canada may produce some limited showers into next week, but not a lot of help is expected for the drought, which continues to be a major concern heading into the growing season. March and April weather will be relied upon for producing better precipitation in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: Dangerously cold air remains in the region through Friday morning and is threatening livestock and winter wheat with winterkill. Snow that fell earlier this week may help to protect some of the crop, but many areas are uncovered and vulnerable. Temperatures will rise this weekend and warmer air is forecast for next week, melting the snow. The next system moves through toward the middle of next week, though much of the region is likely to be missed.

Midwest: Above-normal temperatures are forecast for next week in most areas. Clippers moving through Canada may bring some occasional precipitation and a storm system in the middle of next week may bring somewhat widespread rain with some potential for snow. Colder air will filter in behind that system for late next week, and behind a clipper that goes through next weekend.

Lower Mississippi River: Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi’s tributaries. The pattern is a little slower for the region through early next week, allowing areas to recover somewhat, though another system will move through in the middle of next week with more rain.

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH BRAZIL AND CENTRAL/NORTH ARGENTINA

• Wet weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn/soybean development
• Wet weather in North Brazil

FORECAST

Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 8-1 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a negative phase and will support wet weather across Southern Brazil. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.

Argentina/Paraguay: Warm temperatures (1 °C above normal) are expected across Central/North Argentina during the 5-day outlook. In the 6-15-day outlook, warm temperatures (1 °C above normal) are expected across Noth and near normal to cool (1 °C below normal) in the Pampas. Wet weather (20-80 mm above normal) is expected across Central/North Argentina during the 15-day outlook. Wet weather may favor corn/soybean development across the Pampas belts.

Brazil: Warm temperatures (2-5 °C above normal) will prevail across Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Wet spells (10-120 mm above normal) are expected across the north Center West/North and dry (10-80 mm below normal) in South/Southeast Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may favor 1st corn harvesting/2nd corn planting across the Center West Brazil. Dry weather may be a concern for coffee development across the Southeast, while wet weather may help the north Center West’s soybean belts.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 20 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 102,450 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday.
• FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 96,160 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Feb. 13.

• Corn est. range 900k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,375k
• Soybean est. range 100k – 500k tons, with avg of 317k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2% to 26.218M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.731 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.084m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.078m

 

World 2024-25 Grain Output Estimate Lowered on Corn Supply: IGC

The estimate for total grains production in the 2024-25 season was lowered with a smaller output forecast for corn, the International Grains Council said in a report.

• Total grains output now seen at 2.30b tons, cut by 3m tons from last month’s estimate
• Corn production outlook was lowered by 3m tons to 1.22b tons
• World grain stockpile estimate at the end of the season is seen slightly higher at 576m tons from last month
• Estimate for wheat inventories was also lowered to 264m tons

2025-26 OUTLOOK

• Says another drawdown in wheat stockpiles is to be expected
• Corn area is seen “tentatively” higher y/y, while the barley area is expected to rebound only modestly from last year’s historic lows

 

US Corn Area Seen Up 4.2% at 94.5m Acres in 2025, CoBank Says

US farmers expected to shift acreage to corn this spring, spurred by higher prices for the grain relative to other crops, CoBank said in a note.

• However, potential for trade disputes with Canada and Mexico could curb the increase in planted acreage: CoBank
• Soybeans planting seen falling 3.6% to 84 million acres
• Spring wheat seedings in the Northern Plains expected to drop 5.9% to 10 million acres

 

Indonesia official says no discussion of palm oil export restrictions ahead of Ramadan

The Indonesian government has not held discussions on restricting palm oil exports ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, trade ministry official Farid Amir said on Friday.

Palm oil futures prices were on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain on Friday on output concerns, including market speculation that Indonesia was looking at export restrictions before Ramadan.

Farid said in a message to Reuters that such a ban had not been discussed.

“I am informed that the news has been driving the crude palm oil prices up,” he said.

In 2022, Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, banned exports of the most widely used vegetable oil due to soaring domestic cooking oil prices, although it was lifted after a few weeks.

 

US generated fewer renewable blending credits in January, EPA says

The United States generated fewer renewable blending credits in January versus the prior month, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

• About 1.25 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in January, compared with about 1.30 billion in December, the data showed.
• Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending fell to about 486 million in January from 906.8 million the month prior, the data showed.
• The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

Big Oil Joins Farm and Biofuel Groups in Push for New EPA Rules

The American Petroleum Institute, the powerful oil lobby, is joining green diesel, ethanol and farming groups in urging the Trump administration to set strong biofuel-blending rules.

• “We encourage the EPA to consider robust future renewable fuel volumes for 2026 and beyond,” the API, Clean Fuels Alliance America, which represents producers of biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, and other groups wrote in a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin
• Strong volumes would better reflect availability and ongoing investments in the industry, as well as increased demand in new markets like marine, rail and aviation: letter
• NOTE: The alliance underscores growing cooperation between Big Oil and agriculture regarding liquid fuels, as both sides face the existential threat of electric vehicles
• NOTE: In December, Clean Fuels filed a lawsuit aimed at getting EPA to set a timeline for issuing 2026 rules, which by law were due in November
• In June, Clean Fuels also petitioned EPA to reconsider 2024 and 2025 biomass-based diesel blending mandates, which the trade group argues were set “significantly below production trends”

 

Indian refiners cancel palm oil orders due to price surge

• Palm oil has reached unusual premium over soyoil
• Buyers and sellers mutually agreeing to cancel contracts
• India is world’s biggest palm oil importer

Indian refiners have cancelled orders for 100,000 metric tons of crude palm oil (CPO) scheduled for delivery between March and June, because of a surge in benchmark Malaysian prices and negative refining margins in India, four trade sources said.

Refiners in the world’s largest importer of palm oil cancelled the quantity over the last four days, including 30,000 tons on Friday, after Malaysian palm oil futures rose more than 11% over four weeks.

The Indian cancellations could limit the rally in Malaysian palm oil prices, although they could also support soyoil prices as some refiners shift to soyoil.

The trade sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the press.

One Indian buyer, who operates a refinery on the east coast and cancelled palm oil shipments for March delivery, said the combination of negative refining margins in India and high overseas prices meant it made sense to lock in profits by selling palm oil back to suppliers, rather than importing it.

Price-sensitive Asian buyers traditionally rely on palm oil due to its low cost and quick shipping times. However, the recent price rise has pushed palm oil to a premium over soyoil on the global market.

An influx of soyoil into India between February and March, priced slightly lower than palm oil has prompted some refiners to cancel their palm oil purchases to switch to soyoil, Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage, said.

A Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house said buyers and sellers were mutually agreeing to cancel contracts, with buyers accepting a slightly lower price than the current market rate for cancellations.

Crude palm oil (CPO) is being offered at about $1,210 a ton, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for March delivery, compared to around $1,120 to $1,130 a month ago.

India’s palm oil imports, which are primarily from Indonesia and Malaysia, in January fell 45% from a month ago to 275,241 metric tons, the lowest in nearly 14 years, as refiners turned to cheaper soyoil. The soyoil is imported mostly from Argentina and Brazil.

Market speculation India will raise its import duty on palm oil to support local oilseed farmers has also prompted some refiners to cancel contracts and book profits, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

 

Top Fertilizer Firm Says US Farmers Would Bear Trump Trade Costs

US farmers would bear the cost of tariffs on imported Canadian fertilizers should President Donald Trump’s levies take effect, according to top supplier Nutrien Ltd.

“The tariff costs and tariff impact will be passed on,” Chief Executive Officer Ken Seitz said in a conference call with analysts. “It is going to mean rising costs for the US grower.”

The US relies on Canada for more than 80% of the potash used to nourish its crops, leaving farmers particularly exposed to the impacts of a trade war. Fertilizer prices are already at the highest seasonal level since 2022, when Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted supplies.

The impact of tariffs on US demand for fertilizers would largely depend on the timing of their implementation, according to Canada-based Nutrien.

Earlier this month, Trump agreed to delay 25% tariffs on Canada for a month after it agreed to take tougher measures to combat migration and drug trafficking at the border. The president also ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, with studies expected to be completed by April 1.

“It could be — or maybe even likely is — the case that the US farmer will feel those impacts after the spring planting season,” Seitz said. “For our part, we have been filling the channel right through to our downstream network.”

Shares of Nutrien surged as much as 5.1% in New York, to the highest price since June, as the company projected higher fertilizer sales volumes for 2025.

 

Biofuels could account for a third of maritime transport by 2030

The search for alternative fuels to replace or reduce the use of fossil fuels continues, but there are challenges in this adaptation. The warning comes from the non-governmental organization Transport and Environment (T&E), which released a study on the growth of biofuels. According to the document, nearly a third of the world’s maritime transport is expected to be supported by biofuels by 2030.

The expected increase in use is exponential, since biofuels currently account for less than 1% of all consumption in this sector. The challenge, however, lies in the impact that their production can have on the environment and on the availability of food resources.

The reason is simple. It is estimated that around 60% of biofuels result from the use of foodstuffs such as soya or palm oil, both of which are associated with deforestation. On the other hand, the study points out, if the CO2 emissions resulting from the changes made to the soil for these productions are taken into account, carbon emissions could be two to three times higher than for current fossil fuels.

According to the research carried out by Cerulogy for T&E, the increased use of biofuels would also imply an increase in the agricultural area occupied for this purpose. The figures now presented point to an additional 34 million hectares by 2030, roughly the same area occupied by Germany.

“Land that could be used for agriculture would need to be converted to grow crops for biofuels, while burning vegetable oil on ships will deprive supermarkets of a staple food,” reads the study. The analysis estimates that around 300 million bottles of vegetable oil would be diverted from the food circuit to ensure the operation of ships by the end of this decade . Ultimately, the price of oil in supermarkets could rise considerably.

The use of waste, such as used vegetable oil, will not be enough to meet the increased demand for biofuels and may only “cover a small part of the demand”.

“Supplying cargo ships with deforestation is a bad idea. Burning crops for fuel is bad for the planet and for global food security . The International Maritime Organization (IMO) must consider the climate impact of bad biofuels to avoid doing more harm than good,” says Constance Dijkstra, head of T&E.

In addition to companies in the sector, T&E is asking the IMO to clarify what it considers to be zero-emission fuels, but also to eliminate from the list of biofuels those that are associated with deforestation or the consumption of food necessary for human nutrition.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Rose 2.5% Y/y in January

Commercial beef and pork production rose to 4.89b pounds in Jan., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production up 3.9% y/y to 2.37b pounds
• Jan. cattle slaughter totaled 2.72m head, a 0.5% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 50 pounds from last year to 1,439 pounds
• Pork production up 1.2% y/y to 2.5b pounds
  • Hog slaughter increased 0.9% y/y to 11,467m head
  • Avg live weight was 293 pounds vs 292 pounds a year ago

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 671k tons in the week ending Feb. 15 from 623k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 18.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 5.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.71 per short ton, a decline of $0.16 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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