Global Ag News for Feb 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA freezes farmer funding for some programs, conservation contracts

• USDA funding freeze affects conservation, other programs
• Farmers say they face economic uncertainty due to freeze
• USDA reviews 409 programs, affecting rural economic development

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has frozen some funding for farmers as it goes through a sweeping review, despite assurances from the Trump administration that programs helping farmers would not be affected in the government overhaul.

The impact has been immediate and wide-ranging, from cash assistance for ranchers to fix cattle watering systems to help for corn growers wanting to plant cover crops that curb wind erosion.

Some of the money that has been frozen is tied to environmental conservation programs that were funded by former President Joe Biden’s signature climate law, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which included about $19.5 billion for farm programs over 10 years.

The White House said its January 27 proposal to freeze federal loans and grants would not affect programs for farmers. The administration rescinded its proposal and it has been temporarily blocked in court. The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Friday.

The freeze adds more economic uncertainty for farmers already struggling after several consecutive years of incomes dragged down by low crop prices.

It also comes as a surprise to a community that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the past three presidential elections. His first term brought farmers record cash: about $217 billion in farm payments, including crop support, disaster and aid programs.

Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, told the Senate Agriculture Committee on Wednesday that the group was hearing from farmers across the country who were not receiving expected payments from USDA conservation programs.

“Having USDA delayed with a lot of uncertainty about whether or not it will actually come through is adding to that economic pressure in the countryside,” he said.

Missouri cattle producer Skylar Holden posted a series of videos on TikTok this week, saying he had signed a contract with USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service for $240,000 for improved water lines, fences and a well.

But USDA officials called him recently to tell him his contract with NRCS’s Environmental Quality Incentives Program, or EQIP, was frozen, he said. It’s not clear when the funds will be released, Holden said in his video.

“I’ve already done a bunch of the work, already paid for the material and the labor, so I’m out all that cost,” Holden said in one video, adding, “We are possibly going to lose our farm if NRCS doesn’t hold up their contract with us.”

The program aims to help farmers maintain or improve production while conserving natural resources.

A USDA spokesperson said all federal agencies have been asked for such program reviews. “The Department of Agriculture will be happy to provide a response to interested parties once Brooke Rollins is confirmed,” and has analyzed them.

Rollins, Trump’s pick to run the farm agency, was advanced by the Senate Agriculture Committee this week but has not yet received a full Senate confirmation vote.

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget has asked USDA for information on 409 programs, according to an OMB document reviewed by Reuters, including the names of political appointees that oversee each program and any funding obligations the programs have through March 15.

USDA’s funding pause extended to programs beyond those supported through Biden’s signature climate law, according to a letter sent to USDA on Thursday by three Democratic Party lawmakers.

“Pulling the rug out from these recipients runs counter to the mission of the USDA and will quickly and significantly cripple economic development in rural America,” the letter said.

One program targeted in the funding pause was the Partnership for Climate-Smart Commodities, where USDA said it is investing $3.1 billionin 141 projects to help farmers enroll in conservation programs.

One project provided assistance to Midwestern farmers to grow organic grains, while another focused on bolstering potato farm operations in Idaho, Washington and Oregon.

The funding for the contracts came from the Commodity Credit Corporation, a financing institution established during the Great Depression.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 0.02.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 12 in SRW, up 15 1/4 in HRW, up 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $2.80; Soyoil down 0.51.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 1/4 in SRW, up 21 3/4 in HRW, up 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil down 0.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4.9% in SRW, up 7.5% in HRW, up 5.1% in HRS; Corn is up 6.0%; Soybeans up 5.1%; Soymeal down 2.2%; Soyoil up 15.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 6 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil up 52; Palm oil up 130; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 89.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 89 ringgit (+1.98%) at 4593.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 7 were: SRW Wheat down 15,011 contracts, HRW Wheat down 8,833, Corn down 12,108, Soybeans up 2,956, Soymeal down 3,505, Soyoil down 2,575.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil became more widespread across the region over the weekend and continue all this week. However, showers should not be as intense as earlier this harvest period, instead being more typical of wet season rainfall for this time of year, or even spottier. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late.

Argentina: It was very hot over the weekend with temperatures up around 100F. A few spotty showers occurred over the south, otherwise it was dry, leading to more stress after last week’s beneficial rainfall. A front will move through Monday night through Thursday with scattered showers. There is some potential for areas of heavy rain, but not widespread and likely favoring the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active with another front moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions.

Lower Mississippi: Heavy precipitation last week brought water levels up higher and will lead to minor flooding in some spots, which may make transportation a little more difficult. A constant barrage of storms moving through this week and next week will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month.

Northern Plains: Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next two weeks. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

Central/Southern Plains: It was fairly quiet over the weekend, though cold temperatures did leak south into the region. That cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. The region will be busier with precipitation, with a system moving through southern areas on Monday and a much more widespread and heavier system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread precipitation, including heavy snow, is expected with this system. Another is possible over the weekend. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but not for livestock, which will need extra rations with the cold.

Midwest: A system brought a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow to the region over the weekend. A system will scrape through southern areas Monday into Tuesday while another comes through with more widespread precipitation right behind it on Wednesday. This will likely include more freezing rain and heavy snow. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 7 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 14,000 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 63,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa in a private deal without issuing an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 35,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

Brazil January Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Soybean exports fell 62% in January from a year ago
• Cotton exports rose 66% y/y
• Corn exports fell 26% y/y

 

Brazil soy sales lag on high freight costs, traders’ caution

The sale of Brazil’s new soy crop has lagged, according to analysts on Friday, reflecting high freight costs, a stronger local currency and trading companies’ extra caution to close purchases.

Advance sales of Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop hit 39.4% of total expected production, according to consultancy Safras & Mercado. This is above the 31.9% seen in the same period in 2024. But it is below the five-year average of 43.2%.

“Freight is the main factor limiting business,” said Guilherme Palhares, head of food and beverages at Santander research. He noted that to reduce risks, traders are only buying freight services when the soy they will purchase has a committed client.

Brazil heavily relies on trucks to ship grains to port.

Higher freight costs in 2025 come as diesel prices rise and local farmers need to ship a record soy crop north of 170 million tons.

Excess rains have also contributed to the problem, as they have disrupted harvesting work in Mato Grosso state. Heavy showers mean truckers face muddy roads or shipping of abnormally high volumes all at once.

Road freight from Mato Grosso’s Sorriso to the river port of Miritituba rose around 40% since the beginning of January, to 270 reais ($46.64)/ton, according Mato Grosso farmer-backed group IMEA.

From a farmers’ perspective, interest to sell their soy has been hampered by the currency’s strengthening to 5.8 reais per dollar from 6.

The Santander analyst said Brazilian growers still hope for better prices due to possible problems with Argentine’s soy harvest, affected by drought.

Come April, they will be more likely to sell as input bills are due, he said.

Premiums at the port of Paranagua for soybean shipments in March remain negative, according to data from Cepea, from Esalq/USP.

“The high freight rates end up putting a lot of pressure on the premium,” said Francisco Queiroz, soybean analyst at the agro consultancy at Itaú BBA.

 

Brazilian soybean producers harvest 16.78% of the area, says Pátria AgroNegócios

The area harvested for soybeans in Brazil in 2025 reached 16.78% of the total sown, compared to 23.83% in the same period last year, at a time when work should start to pick up pace after an initial delay that caused concern for the planting of the second crop, the consultancy Pátria AgroNegócios said on Friday.

“Although the pace is improving in the central region, the strong delay in Mato Grosso continues to cause concern, with a reduction in the planting window for the second crop ,” said the consultancy’s director, Matheus Pereira.

“From now on, weather conditions and the crop cycle point to a strong acceleration of harvest work in the country,” he added in a statement.

In Mato Grosso, producers harvested 28.58% of the cultivated area, up 16.38 percentage points on the previous week, according to data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) released on Friday.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Irregular rains in South America concern players; prices move up

Soybean prices have increased in the domestic market this week, influenced by the irregular volume of rainfall in South America. This scenario has been concerning sellers, who are away from closing deals in the spot market. Moreover, uncertainties about the commercial relation between the United States and China have been reinforcing the upward trend in Brazil – the demand from China for the Brazilian soy is likely to increase in the coming months.

On the other hand, price rises have been limited by the dollar devaluation, which leads the product from the US to be more attractive to importers than the soy from Brazil. Freight increases have also limited price rises in the spot market.

CROPS – The excess of rainfall in the Central-West and in the Southwest has limited the progress of the soy harvest. On the other hand, in Southern Brazil and in Argentina, the scarcity of rains concerns players. Conab says that the soy harvesting reached 8% of the area in Brazil up to February 2.

PRICES – On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.4% from Jan. 30 to Feb. 6 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) but remained stable in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar decreased 1.7% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.769 yesterday.

Fom January 30 to February 6, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 0.4%, to close at BRL 126.08 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 6. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) moved up 0.8% from January 30 to February 6, closing at BRL 132.05 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 6.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices decreased 0.4% between Jan. 30 and Feb. 6. The Brazilian value of soy oil moved up 1.2%, at 6,501.68 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on February 6.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Upward trend continues firm; Index closes above BRL 76/bag again

Corn prices continue to move up in most part of regions surveyed by Cepea – the upward trend has been observed since the beginning of this year. This week, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) closed again above BRL 76.00 per 60-kg bag, which had not been observed since April 2023.

Concerns related to delays of the summer crop harvesting and the planting of the second crop, especially in the Central-West, have been keeping some sellers away from closing deals in the spot market, expecting new price rises. Moreover, players say that the priority has been to harvest and deliver soybean; thus, corn sales are moving at a slow pace, while freights are at high levels. As for the demand, consumers are willing to purchase new batches, but they face high values asked by sellers.

More significant price increases have been observed in regions in São Paulo state. Besides the limited supply, producers ask for higher quotations due to logistical issues.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) upped 2.2% between January 30 and February 6, closing at BRL 76.42 per 60-kilo bag on Feb. 6. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values increased 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

CROPS – The pace of both the summer crop harvesting and the second crop planting has been limited by the rainfall in many regions in Brazil. Although it is still early to say, in case rains continue to hinder activities, the second crop sowing may be out of the desirable period, which can affect the productivity.

Up to Feb. 2, the harvesting of the summer crop had reached 10.5% of the area in Brazil, below the 13.8% verified in the same period last year. Second crop planting activities had totaled 5.3%, against 19.8% in 2024, according to data from Conab.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Output Est. Raised to 174.88M Mt: Safras

Brazilian soybean production in 2024/25 is expected to total 174.88 million metric tons, an increase of 14.8% over the previous season, according to an emailed report by consultancy firm Safras & Mercado.

• Previous estimate from Jan. 10 was 173.71 million metric tons
  • Revision takes into account climatic factors, says Safras & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira
• Safras sees planted area at 47.47 million ha, which compares to 46.45 million ha in 2023/24
  • Average yield now seen increasing to 3,702kg/ha from 3,295kg/ha
• Soybean sales from the 2024/25 season reached 39.4% of expected production as of Feb. 7, according to separate emailed report by Safras
  • Pace had been at 35% by Jan. 10
  • Pace compares to 31.9% a year earlier

 

Russia’s 2025 Grain Output to Fall 1.7% to 122.9m Tons: ProZerno

Russia’s 2025 grains production is expected to fall 1.7% y/y to 122.9m tons, consultancy ProZerno said on Telegram.

• That’s 10% below the five-year average
• ProZerno sees the wheat harvest declining 6% y/y to 77.4m tons
• Barley output may increase about 6% to 17.7m tons; corn harvest seen expanding almost 10% to 14.6m tons
• NOTE: The outlook doesn’t include volumes in the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia
• The consultant expects 8.2% of winter crops to be lost, resulting in harvesting on about 16.1 million ha

 

IKAR Cuts 2024-25 Russian Wheat-Export Forecast; Trims Crop Est.

IKAR cut its forecast for Russia’s 2024-25 wheat exports to 43m tons, from 43.5m tons, according to General Director Dmitry Rylko.

It also lowered its 2025 wheat-production estimate to 77m-87m tons, from 79m-89m tons

 

Analyst APK-Inform raises Ukraine 2024/25 wheat and barley export forecasts

KYIV, Feb 10 (Reuters) – Analyst APK-Inform’s forecast for Ukraine’s 2024/25 July-June grain exports has been increased to 37.95 million metric tons from its previous projection of 37.62 million tons, the consultancy said on Monday.

The consultancy has also raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2024/25 season wheat exports to 14.5 million tons from 14.4 million tons and barley export outlook to 2.6 million tons from 2.55 million tons.

 

Malaysia Palm Output Sinks Most in Nine Years as Rains Hit Crops

Palm oil production in Malaysia slumped the most since 2016 as heavy rains and floods disrupted harvesting in the world’s second-biggest grower.

At least five people were killed and thousands forced to move to safer places last month after days of heavy downpour triggered floods and landslides in several areas of the Southeast Asian nation. The states of Sarawak and Sabah, top oil palm growing areas, were among the worst affected, according to a statement from the country’s weather agency.

Output fell almost 17% from a month earlier to 1.24 million tons in January, according to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Monday. That’s the lowest since April 2023 and below the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey last week.

Stockpiles dropped 7.6% to 1.58 million tons, missing all analyst estimates in the survey. Exports decreased almost 13% to 1.17 million tons, slightly better than the survey prediction.

Malaysian reserves slipping below 1.6 million tons is an acknowledgment of a bullish palm oil market, said Anilkumar Bagani, the head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

 

China’s food security is a ‘political responsibility’ for agricultural areas: Xi Jinping

Chinese leader calls for ‘diversified food supply system’ during visit to northeastern province of Jilin

Chinese President Xi Jinping has highlighted the importance of food security, saying it was a “political responsibility” for major agricultural areas.

During a tour of northeastern China, Xi also said that “further reform and opening up” was crucial to revitalising the region’s economy and urged it to create a better “market-oriented, rule and law-based, and international” business environment.

“Guaranteeing national food security is the political responsibility of large agricultural and food provinces,” Xi told local officials in Changchun, the capital of Jilin province, on Saturday, according to state news agency Xinhua.

“Jilin should develop modern agriculture … promote scientific and technological, green, and high-quality agriculture, and establish more agricultural brands,” Xi said, and called for it to promote “a diversified food supply system”.

China’s three northeastern provinces – Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning – are one of the country’s most important grain-producing areas but the former industrial heartland is struggling economically.

Together with Inner Mongolia, the three provinces produce a quarter of the country’s total grain supplies, according to Xinhua.

Although China has increased its food production over the last two decades, it has become more reliant on imports during that period.

However, the agriculture ministry predicted that the country would produce 91.5 per cent of the food it consumes within the next decade.

Last year China imported 157.5 million tonnes of grain, almost as much as the record highs recorded in 2021 and 2023.

According to a report from the China Macroeconomy Forum, a Renmin University think tank, in 2020 the country was a net exporter of wheat, and produced 99 per cent of the rice it consumed as well as 94 per cent of the corn, but only 17 per cent of the soybeans it needed.

Soybeans are mainly used to feed livestock, and were a major factor in the trade war with the United States during Donald Trump’s first term in office.

His return to the White House may hit supplies to China, although the US only provided 18 per cent of soybean imports last year compared with 40 per cent in 2016, according to customs data.

Xi also stressed the northeast’s importance to the environment, the country’s defences and its energy and industrial security during this visit.

He also stressed the importance of following the northeastern revitalisation strategy to improve the region’s economic fortunes.

The region accounted for around 15 per cent of the country’s GDP in the late 1970s, but this has fallen to less than 5 per cent.

It is now seen as one of the country’s least business-friendly areas and many of its younger people are leaving for other parts of the country, leaving it with one of the highest proportion of elderly people.

Xi has already visited all three northeastern provinces this year. Last month he visited Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning province, highlighting the same economic revitalisation strategy. On Friday, he travelled to Harbin, the capital of Heilongjiang, for the opening ceremony of the Asian Winter Games.

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Canada Wheat Stocks on Dec. 31 Rose 0.9% From Year Ago

Stocks of Canadian wheat as of Dec. 31 rose to 24.48m tons vs. 24.25m in the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada.

• Durum wheat rose to 3.62m tons vs. 3.19m
• Canola fell to 11.38m tons vs 14.09m in the same period last year

 

 India Permits Exports of Wheat Flour Blended With Millets

India, the world’s second-biggest grower and consumer of wheat, allowed overseas shipments of flour blended with millets, according to a notification by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade.

• The export item will contain a minimum of 60% wheat flour and at least 15% millets, in addition to other ingredients, it said on Friday
• The wheat flour will be made from duty-free imported wheat under the government’s advance authorization program
  • For exports of 1 kilogram of whole wheat flour, imports of 1.07 kilogram of the grain will be allowed
• Millets and other ingredients will be sourced from the domestic market

 

 

 

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