Global Ag News for Aug 8.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.26; Soyoil up 0.85.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 33 1/2 in SRW, down 30 in HRW, down 15 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.32; Soyoil up 1.56.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 40 1/2 in SRW, down 37 1/4 in HRW, down 23 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 16 1/2; Soybeans down 61 3/4; Soymeal down $16.00; Soyoil down 0.84.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down -1% in SRW, up 4% in HRW, down -10% in HRS; Corn is up 2%; Soybeans up 22%; Soymeal up 21%; Soyoil up 22%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 33 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil up 128; Palm oil up 276; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 191 ringgit (+4.93%) at 4069.

There were changes in registrations (-18 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 149 Soyoil; 17 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 5 were: SRW Wheat down 1,814 contracts, HRW Wheat down 228, Corn down 5,981, Soybeans up 529, Soymeal down 269, Soyoil up 9,239.

Northern Plains Forecast: A front went through the region over the weekend with scattered showers. A couple of areas saw heavy rain, but most saw light to moderate. After a few days of more seasonable temperatures, heat will return by late this week and continue into next week. There may be some showers moving in with the heat, but are likely to be isolated. Soil moisture is starting to run thin in a lot of areas, making some of these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A front moved into northern areas of the region this weekend with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Heat continued south of the front. The front will gradually slide south through the region this week, bringing in more seasonable temperatures for a couple of days and scattered showers. Showers are unlikely to be widespread with limited impact on drought, and temperatures will rise again later this week and weekend, stressing crops further.

Midwest Forecast: A stalled front brought showers to southern areas early this weekend while another started to move into the north with more showers. Heavy rain fell in a stripe from southern Minnesota to northern Illinois, including northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Only small sections of these heavier rains hit drought areas that could use more moisture for filling corn and soybeans. But the front will continue to sag south through the region early this week with more rainfall through Wednesday in areas that would benefit from some dryness. Behind the front, it will get much drier with cool temperatures going into the weekend. Western areas should warm up more later this week and drier areas there could see more stresses.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Mostly dry weather occurred over the weekend. A couple of systems are moving through over the next week, but will only offer light precipitation in most cases. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up in more advanced areas. 

Europe Forecast: Heat continues across much of the continent the last several weeks has caused widespread stress to summer crops. An upper-level system is forming off the tail end of a cold front in eastern areas of the continent this week. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers to this part of the continent. But across the west, stress will continue for the next couple of weeks.

Black Sea Forecast: Above-normal temperatures across the region this weekend helped to dry soils and wheat for harvest. A front moved into northwestern areas and stalled but will wash out over the next couple of days as the heat continues to be favorable for wheat harvest. Soil moisture in the region is good overall and the heat will help to accelerate corn and soybean filling.

The player sheet for Aug. 5 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: U.S. exporters sold 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• SOYBEAN SALE: U.S. exporters sold 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year, the USDA said.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) and Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 120,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in private deals without issuing an international tender
• FAILED WHEAT, BARLEY PURCHASE: A group of importers in the Philippines rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for up to 150,000 tonnes of wheat and 150,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

China July Soybean Imports 7.883m Tons: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean imports YTD fell 5.9% y/y to 54.167m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in July 527,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 63.6% y/y to 2.408m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in July 643,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 30.9% y/y to 4.099m tons
• Fertilizer exports in July 1.935m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD fell 43.2% y/y to 11.362m tons

Brazil 2022/23 Soybean Area Seen +3%, Summer Corn -2%: Datagro

Area planted with soybean seen rising to 43m ha, consulting firm Datagro says in emailed report.

• Potential production seen at 151.8m tons, 20% above this year’s 126.6m tons
• Summer corn area seen at 4.5m ha
  • Potential production 25.8m tons, +3% y/y
• Winter corn area seen rising 4% y/y, to 18.7m ha
  • Production seen at 94.6m tons, +2% y/y
• Total Brazil corn planted area seen at 23.2m ha, +2% y/y
  • Total potential production 120.5m tons, +3% y/y
• Winter corn harvest is 74.2% done as of July 29, compared with 64.8% a week earlier, 48.8% a year earlier and 5-year average of 61.4%

IHS Markit sees 2022 U.S. corn yield at 176.9 bu/acre -traders

Private analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness on Friday forecast U.S. 2022 corn production at 14.497 billion bushels, with an average yield of 176.9 bushels per acre, according to traders and portions of an IHS client note seen by Reuters.

The firm forecast 2022 soybean production of 4.530 billion bushels, with an average yield of 51.8 bushels per acre.

Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Raises Wheat, Barley Crop Forecast

The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club raised its 2022 wheat harvest forecast by 7% to 19.2m tons, the group said on its website.

• Barley forecast hiked by 12% to 5.8m tons
• Club sees rapeseed harvest at 3.1m tons, 7% more than the 2021 harvest
• Average wheat yields are seen at 3.7 tons per hectare; barley yields at 3.4 tons per hectare

Two more grain ships sail from Ukraine as third port opens

08-Aug-2022 02:45:44 AM

• 10 ships have now sailed under deal with Russia
• Third port of Pivdennyi up and running under the deal
• First shipment completed since Ukraine exports relaunched

Two more ships, carrying corn and soybeans, departed from Ukrainian Black Sea ports on Monday, Turkey and Ukraine said, taking the total to ten since the first ship sailed last week under a deal with Russia to unblock Ukrainian grain exports.

The United Nations and Turkey brokered the agreement last month after warnings the halt in grain shipments caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to severe food shortages and even outbreaks of famine in parts of the world.

The Sacura, which departed from Pivdennyi, is carrying 11,000 tonnes of soybeans to Italy, Turkey’s defense ministry said on Monday, while the Arizona, which left Chornomorsk, is carrying 48,458 tonnes of corn to Iskenderun in southern Turkey.

Separately, the Polarnet, which departed on Friday, reached its final destination in northwestern Turkey’s Derince on Monday morning to be unloaded, marking the completion of the first shipment since the exports were re-launched.

So far, around 243,000 tonnes of corn has been exported from Ukraine on seven ships since the first departure on Aug. 1, according to a Reuters tally of data from Turkey’s defense ministry.

The other ships carried 11,000 tonnes of soybeans, 6,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 45,000 tonnes of sunflower meal.

Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, confirmed the two latest ships left on Monday, adding Pivdennyi, the third Ukrainian port included in the deal, was finally up and running as part of the initiative.

Kubrakov had said previously the opening of Pivdennyi would push Ukraine’s total export capacity up to three million tonnes a month.

In peacetime, Ukraine exported up to six million tonnes of grain a month from its ports on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coast.

The four ships that left Ukraine on Sunday are expected to anchor near Istanbul on Monday evening, Turkey’s defense ministry said, adding they would be inspected on Tuesday.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine for what it calls its “special military operation”, the two countries together accounted for nearly a third of global wheat exports.

The resumption of grain exports is being overseen by a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul where Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and U.N. personnel are working.

The Razoni, which was the first ship to depart, was scheduled to arrive in Lebanon on Sunday but is currently at anchor off Turkey’s southern coast, according to Refinitiv ship tracker data.

Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry said on Sunday the Fulmar S, the first foreign-flagged bulk ship to reach the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk since the conflict, was ready for loading.

A second ship travelling to Ukraine, the Osprey S, was inspected in Istanbul on Sunday and was nearing Ukraine on Monday morning, Refinitiv data also showed.

China’s July soybean imports slide amid poor crush margins, weaker demand

China’s soybean imports in July fell 9.1% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, as poor crushing margins and weaker consumption in the world’s largest buyer of the oilseed reduced appetite for shipments.

China brought in 7.88 million tonnes of the oilseed in July, versus 8.67 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday.

The imports were also down 4.5% from a month ago.

Soybean prices soared this year after bad weather hurt production in and exports from Brazil, China’s top supplier.

Demand from China is also weaker than a year ago as cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai and Wuhan faced mass testing, targeted lockdowns or restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19.

“COVID lockdowns curbed consumption and negative profits decreased pig inventory” for pig farmers, Rosa Wang, an analyst at agriculture consultancy Shanghai JC Intelligence Co Ltd, said ahead of the customs data release.

Soybeans are crushed to make soymeal, a key pig feed ingredient, and soyoil for cooking.

“Poor crush margins and high import costs have also dampened crushers’ overseas purchases of soybeans,” Wang added.

Crush margins in China have been negative since mid-April, with crushers in the key processing hub of Rizhao losing 644 yuan ($95.26) for each tonne of soybean processed as of Aug. 5.

Pig farmers had also been seeing negative margins for the first five months of the year, as pork demand contracted due to repeated COVID outbreaks.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, adheres to a strict zero-COVID policy of eliminating outbreaks as soon as they emerge, resulting in restrictions on movement and targeted lockdowns that stifle consumption and economic activity.

From January to July 2022, China brought in 54.17 million tonnes of the oilseed, down 5.9% from the same period a year ago, customs data showed.

Seeking ways to cool domestic wheat prices, India could scrap import duty – sources

India could scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports and cap the amount of stocks traders can hold to try to dampen record high domestic prices in the world’s second biggest producer, government and trade officials told Reuters on Monday.

The South Asian country barred wheat exports in May after as the crop suffered a heatwave, but domestic prices still rose to a record high. Yet, international prices are still way above the domestic market, making it unviable for traders to buy from abroad.

If the government does remove the duty, and international prices also fall, then traders say they could start importing, especially during the upcoming festival season, when higher demand typically drives domestic prices higher.

“We are exploring all possible options to bring down the prices,” said a senior government official who held discussion with industry officials last week.

New Delhi could scrap the 40% import duty and impose stock limits on wholesalers and traders to signal to the market that the government will do everything in its power to keep prices in check, said the official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject.

Domestic wheat prices ended last week at a record 24,000 rupees ($301.57) per tonne, having risen 14% from lows struck after the government surprised markets on May 14 by banning exports, ending hopes that India could fill the market gap left by the missing Ukraine grain.

Domestic prices are still nearly a third lower than global prices Wv1, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trading firm, who described Indian wheat as the cheapest in the world.

India last imported wheat in the 2017/18 (April-March) financial year.

“If global prices fall by another 20% and Indian prices continue their rally, then may be, sometime after few months, imports might become feasible,” the trader said.

The government has limited options to intervene in the market this year since its procurement has fallen 57% to 18.8 million tonnes, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm.

“New crop would become available only after 9 months. The government has to use stocks very carefully until then to avoid any shortage,” the dealer said.

Nebraska Governor Announces Retailers Offering High Ethanol Blends Can Now Apply for Excise Tax Credits

The Nebraska Governor Aug. 3 announced retailers offering higher ethanol blends of fuel can now apply for excise tax credits made available through the passage of Legislative Bill 1261e. The governor signed the bill into law in spring after it was passed unanimously by the state legislature. The announcement includes that: 1) the Nebraska Department of Revenue is administering the program and began applications for the credits on Aug. 1; 2) retailers can seek more information or apply by visiting the governor’s designated website; 3) E15, a blend of gasoline and 15 percent ethanol, is safe and approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to use in vehicles 2001 or newer, light-duty trucks, medium-duty passenger vehicles, and all flex-fuel vehicles; 4) E15 is available at 112 fueling stations and the number continues to grow; and 5) E15 can provide up to an additional $0.10 savings per gallon.

Rhine level in Germany falls again, ships only part-loaded

Water levels on the Rhine in Germany fell again during hot dry weather over the weekend and cargo vessels cannot sail fully loaded, vessel brokers and commodity traders said on Monday.

Shallow water is causing problems for shipping on the entire river in Germany. The Rhine is one of the key channels linking Germany’s industrial heartlands with the North Sea ports from which products are exported to world markets.

Freight shipping on the river continues, but with vessels sometimes forced to sail three-quarters empty. Hot and dry weather is forecast this week and no relief is in sight.

Low Rhine water will affect output over the coming month from two major Germany coal-fired power stations.

Chemicals group BASF said on Friday it could not rule out production cuts if low water disrupts logistics.

Freight costs were little changed on Monday, holding recent high levels, vessel brokers said.

Spot prices for a liquid tanker barge from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe south of the German chokepoint of Kaub were unchanged at about 94 euros a tonne, but up from only around 20 euros a tonne in June before water levels fell, vessel brokers said.

Navigation authorities do not close the river at times of low water, leaving it to vessel operators to decide when to stop. The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities including grains, chemicals, minerals, coal and oil products including heating oil.

German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in 2018 after a drought and heatwave led to unusually low water levels on the Rhine.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Lower demand and high road freight prices press down values in BR

Lower international demand added to cautious purchasers in Brazil, due to the current high road freight costs, pressed down the domestic quotations for soybean and its by-products in the last days. The road freight price from Cascavel (PR) to the port of Paranaguá (PR), for instance, surpassed BRL 150.00/ton, according to agents consulted by Cepea, while a month ago it was around BRL 110.00/ton.

Thus, many agents opted to wait and trade the products in the coming weeks, due to the downward trend of road freight prices because of the end of the corn harvesting and the resume of return freight in light of inputs imports for the 2022/23 season.

Thus, in the Brazilian spot market, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná dropped by 3.2% and 2.7%, respectively, closing at BRL 186.65 (USD 35.78)/60-kilo bag and at BRL 181.08 (USD 34.71)/bag on August 4. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices decreased by 1.8% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 2.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

As for soybean by-products, between July 28 and August 4, the price for soybean meat dropped by 1.1% on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea. This devaluation is linked to the lower demand from abroad and decreases in the export premiums. In Brazil, purchasers were interested in buying the product, however, the gap between bidding and asking prices limited liquidity.

Soy oil prices resumed being traded below BRL 8,000.00/ton, as expected by agents in previous week. Devaluation reflected lower demand from the industry. In São Paulo, the price for soy oil (with 12% ICMS) dropped by a steep 5.2% in the last seven days, to BRL 7,698.59/ton on August 4.

However, it is important to highlight that the quotations for soybean and its by-products were limited by the dollar appreciation against the Real, which kept some farmers away from the market, expecting values to rise in the short and mid terms. The American currency increased by 1.1% in the last seven days, to BRL 5.217 on August 4th.

EXPORTS – In July, Brazil exported 7.51 million tons of soybean, 24.79% less than that shipped in June and 13.28% down from that in July/21, according to Secex. Lower demand from abroad may be linked to the reduction in the imports from China, which purchased 5.17 million tons of the Brazilian soybean in July, 20% less than it did in June and 10.29% down in a year’s time.

CORN/CEPEA: With higher interest of purchasers, quotations continue to increase

Corn prices are still rising in the spot market of most regions surveyed by Cepea, due to the higher interest of purchasers. Farmers are aware of the good exports’ performance and low stocks of Brazilian purchasers, thus limiting the volumes available, expecting better deal opportunities in the coming days.

The upward trend of prices prevailed along the week, despite the progress of the harvesting in important regions. Between July 28 and August 4, quotations rose by 6.3% in the wholesale market of Anápolis (GO), 8.8% in that of Canarana (MT), 5.1% in Dourados (MS), 4.2% in central-western Paraná and 3.6% in western Santa Catarina.

With the progress of the harvesting and limited stock capacity, the output needs to be sold, pushing up road freight costs. This context is helping to underpin corn prices in São Paulo. Between July 28 and August 4, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) rose by a slight 0.6%, to BRL 82.24 (USD 15.76)/bag on Thursday, 4. However, since July 29th, the Index has decreased by 0.83%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn prices increased by 2.8% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

The dollar appreciation against the Real in the last days raised the export parity. The American currency rose by 1.1% between July 28 and August 4, to BRL 5.217 on Thursday, 4. At the port of Santos (SP), values increased by 2.5%, to BRL 87.61/bag; at the port of Paranaguá (PR), values rose by 1.8%, to BRL 86/bag.

Higher demand from international purchasers and the progress of the harvesting have boosted the Brazilian exports of corn. In July, Brazil shipped 4.12 million tons of corn, more than the 1.99 million tons from July 2021. Imports increased too, totaling 290 thousand tons last month, a lot higher than the 144 thousand tons imported in July last year, according to Secex.

CROPS – Favored by the weather, corn harvesting has been in full swing in Brazil. According to Conab, by July 30, 71.1% of the national area had been harvested, against 59.6% in the previous week and 51% in the same period last year.

Potash Slides Amid Producers Fill Programs; China Supply Drops

Potash prices fell below Nutrien and Mosaic’s 3Q US fill offers last week. Global inventory appears to be rising, except in China. Its port inventory of 1.6 million metric tons is near the strategic-reserve level, which we believe could signal 3Q buying. More European ammonia capacity has gone offline due to gas prices.

US Urea, Ammonia Prices Rebound

Global supply constraints pushed urea prices up at New Orleans (NOLA) and in the Corn Belt, and also fueled a jump in Brazil as the industry awaits the next India tender. NOLA prices rose to $580-$620 a short ton (st) vs. last week’s $465-$580, with additional near-term increases likely as more nitrogen capacity is idled in Europe due to natural gas availability and pricing. Fall ammonia prices in the Corn Belt also moved up, with CF launching a new round of prepay offers at levels $25-$50 higher than the previous week. Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonium sulfate prices remained under pressure at NOLA and inland, however, as summer fill programs continue to circulate.

NOLA phosphate prices also moved down slightly, while potash prices slipped at NOLA and inland as producer fill programs competed for business.

Nitrogen Prices Rebound in Brazil; Phosphate, Potash Weaken

Nitrogen prices in Brazil have moved up after weeks of decline and demand destruction, as companies adjust offers to reflect the increase in global urea prices due to Europe’s natural gas constraints. A 15.6% increase in year-to-date imports suggests oversupply and lower phosphate and potash prices.

Brazil Urea Prices Jump; Phosphate, Potash Dip on Supply Surplus

Urea prices in Brazil recovered from a 15% drop in the past three weeks and strengthened to $660-$675 a metric ton (mt), reflecting ammonia supply constraints that have pressured prices globally. Negotiations halted in the market as farmers consider delaying nitrogen demand to 4Q after the summer planting season finishes, which suggests further pressure on prices as natural gas demand picks up to meet Europe’s winter consumption. Potash and phosphates prices dropped another $50/mt amid high inventories and will likely keep sinking until storage falls.

Imports are up 15.6% year-to-date vs. last year, helping Brazilian buyers overcome concerns about scarcity. Potash imports are up 2.1 million mt (33%) from 2021, accounting for most of the year-to-date increase.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 6% Above Normal as of Aug. 7

India has so far received 538.4 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 509.6 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Aug. 7.

• The eastern and northeastern region got 15% below normal rains
• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 37% above normal
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

US Beef Production Falls 2.6% This Week, Pork Rises