Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch.. CN is down. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower.
SN is near 12.46. US and Brazil farmers increased cash sales on Mondays rally. US Midwest weather improving for plantings. Some now est potential S Brazil losses more like 1 mmt vs 5 mmt earlier fears. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop near 4,440 mil bu vs 4,165 ly. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 339 mil bu vs USDA 340 and estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 431 mil bu. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop at 147 mmt vs USDA 155. He est Argentina soybean crop at 51 mmt vs USDA 50. Dalian soymeal and soyoil were higher.
CN is near 4.65. Was in TN yesterday. Farmer asking about outlook for CZ price range and has been active seller of 2023 corn. Trade est US 2024 corn crop near 14,887 mil bu vs 15,342 ly. US crop off to a good start. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 2,100 mil bu vs USDA 2,122 and estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 2,284 mil bu. One crop watcher est Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs USDA 124. He est Argentina corn crop at 47 mmt down 2 mmt from previous est and vs USDA 55.
WN is near 6.43. US farmers increased cash sales on Mondays rally. Was in TN yesterday, Crops look great. Farmer asking about WZ price range. Trade estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 786 mil bu due to higher crop. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,884 mil bu vs 1,812 ly. Winter wheat 1.311 vs 1,248 ly. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 786 mil bu with range 705-879.
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