Global Ag News For April 17.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Western Australia to Plant Less Wheat, More Canola

Fewer hectares of wheat are expected to be planted in the 2026/27 season compared to the previous year, according to a state survey by the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) released on Friday, with some of the acreage to be replaced by barley, canola and lupins.

• The survey of Australia’s largest wheat-exporting state found 3.68 million hectares were expected to be planted this year, down significantly from last year’s 4.45 million hectares
• Meanwhile both barley and canola plantings were seen near 2 million hectares while lupins, an animal feedstock which requires little fertilizer, was expected to grow to 600,000 hectares
• “At this early stage of the season, most growers are sticking to subtle adjustments in cropping plans rather than making wholesale changes and are waiting to see how the seasonal and political climate unfolds over the next few months,” the GIWA survey said
• NOTE: Overall, Australia is expected to plant less wheat in the upcoming season on reduced farm inputs due to the war in Iran, forecasts of a dry El Nino weather system and low wheat prices, which are discouraging farmers

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil down 0.35.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 24 1/4 in SRW, up 49 1/2 in HRW, up 2/5 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans down 14 1/2; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil up 1.68.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 21 1/2 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 9 1/4; Soymeal up $12.50; Soyoil down 0.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 17.8% in SRW, up 24.7% in HRW, up 13.6% in HRS; Corn is up 2.1%; Soybeans up 12.5%; Soymeal up 12.6%; Soyoil up 43.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 26) Soybeans down 14 yuan; Soymeal down 11; Soyoil up 32; Palm oil up 75; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 47 ringgit (-1.05%) at 4448.

There were changes in registrations (-33 Corn). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 542 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 187 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 16 were: SRW Wheat down 1,556 contracts, HRW Wheat down 585, Corn up 8,038, Soybeans up 2,816, Soymeal up 887, Soyoil up 5,640.

 

THE COOLEST SUMMER IN YEARS COULD BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AMERICA, WITH WELL-PLACED RAINS FOR MOST CROPS

What to Watch:

• A cool summer is likely for the U.S. Midwest, Northeast, and eastern Canada, with heat risks greatest over western regions of the continent
• An active storm track is likely to extend along the U.S. Corn Belt during June-August, with drought risks focused on the Mississippi Delta Region and Pacific Northwest
• Cool/wet weather in the U.S. Corn Belt would support considerable upside to most spring crops, with downside risks most evident for cotton

 

Northern Plains: A system and strong cold front will move through on Thursday and Friday, bringing through a mix of rain and snow and a punch of some much colder air. Temperatures may not make it above freezing on Saturday in northern North Dakota. Temperatures will rebound early next week, though, as more showers build across the region for mid-late week. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods later next week and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take the precipitation coming with the variable conditions, however.

Central/Southern Plains: Southeastern areas of the region have been very active this week, but western areas have remained dry as drought has continued to build. A strong cold front will move through on Friday into early Saturday. This front may bring a mix of rain and snow to western areas, but amounts do not look heavy, instead favoring the southeast again. Cold air will bring frosts over the weekend that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, with a slow-moving system likely bringing more widespread precipitation to the region. That may include the dry areas in the west, but to what degree is uncertain.

Midwest: Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, favoring the Great Lakes with heavy rain. The rainfall has come with severe weather and heavy rain, limiting fieldwork in areas where it has been raining, while other areas have seen soil temperatures rising enough to start planting. The active weather continues for the rest of the week, with a strong cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, producing frosts over large areas of the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, and a slow-moving system is likely to produce more widespread precipitation later next week. The region is not out of the cold just yet though, as we may see colder temperatures working back in later next week or weekend, and there are signals for cold in early May as well. While planting is off to a good start, the coming colder temperatures and heavy rain may cause some delays in planting.

Delta: Drought continues to be a major issue in the region while planting moves along quickly. A front moving through on Thursday may bring through a few showers and thunderstorms, but it’ll be the front moving through on Saturday that should carry some widespread rainfall. Despite that, it will not be enough to reduce the drought in any significant way. Prospects are a little more promising next week as a system slowly moves through the country, perhaps bringing through more widespread precipitation. If the forecast changes, though, conditions could worsen.

Canadian Prairies: Temperatures have been cold this spring and snow still exists across the north. A strong cold front continues to drop south through the region on Thursday, bringing a mix of rain and accumulating snow, followed by extremely cold temperatures into the weekend. Most areas may not make it above freezing into Saturday. Though temperatures rise early next week, we are likely to see them fall again later next week. The overall cold conditions are causing delays for rising soil temperatures, and the snow isn’t helping either. If this continues into May, as currently forecast, there will be tighter planting windows this season.

Brazil: A system will bring more showers into the south and west on Thursday, but will quickly return to being isolated showers or completely non-existent. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall through next week. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast suggests, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating into early May.

Argentina: A system moved back into the north with heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another front and system will slowly move through the country Sunday through early next week with more widespread precipitation. The usefulness of the rainfall continues to dwindle as even late-planted crops are maturing. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, but the rain may cause some delays, flooding, and quality issues.

 

The player sheet for 4/16 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC was believed to have purchased around 400,000 metric tons of durum wheat in a tender that closed on Wednesday, European traders said on Thursday. The purchase was optional origin, but a substantial part was expected to be type 3 Canada western amber durum (3CWAD) sourced from Canada, they said.
• SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally purchased about 12,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said. It was bought from seller Aves for at an estimated $1,427 a metric ton to be delivered ex-warehouse, which traders calculated as the equivalent of $1,417 a ton cost and freight included (c&f). Purchases in TMO tenders are provisional and subject to later confirmation.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,950 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 23.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 metric tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 248K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.46M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week of April 9.

• Soybean sales fell to 248k tons vs 295k tons in the previous week
• Corn sales rose to 1,457k tons vs 1,373k tons in the previous week
• Wheat sales fell to 231k tons vs 254k tons in the previous week

 

Argentina 2025/26 corn harvest seen at record 61 mln tons, exchange says

Argentina’s 2025/26 corn harvest is forecast to reach a record 61 million metric tons, up from the previous estimate of 57 million, due to an upward revision in the estimated area planted with the grain, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

• The previous production record was 55.5 million tons in the 2018/19 crop cycle, according to exchange data.
• The exchange increased its planted area estimate by 300,000 hectares to 8.1 million hectares after reviewing the country’s central agricultural area with satellite images.
• Farmers have harvested 24.7% of the corn area, the exchange said.
• Recent rains in the past 48 hours are hampering access to soybean fields, slowing the newly started harvest, which is 6.2% complete.
• The exchange estimated soybean production at 48.5 million tons.
• Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

 

Brazil 2026 soybean exports seen at record, but revenue to fall, says Abiove

Brazil is expected to export a record 113.6 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, industry group Abiove said on Thursday, but revenue will fall due to weak global prices.

Abiove raised its export forecast by more than 2 million tons as the country nears the end of a record harvest, but abundant global supply has pressured prices.

• Soybean shipments by the world’s largest producer will rise 5.4 million tons from 2025, according to Abiove.
• Abiove kept its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production at 177.85 million tons, up 3.7% from the previous season.
• Projected revenue from Brazil’s soy complex exports was cut to $51.18 billion for 2026 from the $58.17 billion estimated last month.
• Soybean exports alone are expected to generate about $42 billion in revenue in 2026, down from a previous estimate of $49 billion.
• Abiove cut its average export price forecast to $370 per ton from $440 per ton previously.
• The domestic soybean crushing forecast was raised to a record 62.2 million tons, reflecting stronger processing demand.

 

Brazil soy harvest nears completion on schedule in Central-West

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.1 [175.4–180.8] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is unchanged at 178.1 million tons, with the harvest nearing completion on schedule in the Central-West and catching up fast in the South and the Southeast thanks to recent moderate weather conditions. A record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Our current median estimate is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 180 million tons (released on 09 April), which assumes total soy sowings at 49.4 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.64 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 48.8 million hectares and 3.65 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 179.1 million tons and 48.5 million hectares, respectively (released on 14 April).

As of 11 April, Brazil’s soybeans were 85.7% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 13 April), still slightly behind last year’s pace of 88.3% but on par with the 5-year average of 85.9%. The harvest pace has picked up greatly in most of the Southeast regions, especially in São Paulo and Minas Gerais where delays were significant up until early April. Overall modest weather conditions are expected to linger into the end of the month, supporting the final stages of harvest. Some minor delays remain persistent in the Northeast (Maranhão in particular), warranting continued attention. Nonetheless, this season’s national-level soybean yield and production should well be on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Paraguay soybean harvest nears completion with record output

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 12.0 [11.7–12.3] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is raised by 1% to 12 million tons, reflecting acceptance of the USDA’s latest yield estimates. Harvest season is practically concluded across the majority of crop regions. A record output is effectively assured.

 

Higher area sets 2026/27 Canada rapeseed production slightly up from last season

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 CANADA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 21.9 [20.8–23.0] MILLION TONS

High planted area and weak competition from other crops set 2026/27 Canada rapeseed production at 21.9 million tons, slightly (<1%) up from last season. Total planted area is projected at 8.9 million hectares, up 1.5% from last season, fractionally above the StatCan’s latest outlook of 8.84 million hectares in its Principal Field Crop Areas report. The expected increase in rapeseed area is largely driven by the continued expansion and high utilization of domestic crushing capacity, underpinned by strong renewable diesel and food oil demand, which is set to rise for a fifth consecutive season. Some acreage shifts from wheat are expected as well, as government policies favoring low-carbon fuels/vegetable oils bolster near-term demand growth for rapeseed oil, while wheat demand growth remains limited and more exposed to geopolitical risks amid amply supplies. Soil moisture levels in key producing areas of southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Manitoba have been hovering around 6-year lows since February, warranting attention, but short-term precipitation forecasts point to improving moisture conditions, offering potential relief. LSEG Weather Research teams’ current summer weather outlook anticipates warmer than normal temperatures during June-August, the crop’s prime growth period, with slightly below normal rainfall throughout the southern Prairies, which could exert downward pressure on yield if materialized.

 

Indonesia’s 2026-27 Palm Output May Climb to 48M Tons: USDA FAS

Indonesia’s palm oil production is forecast to increase 3% to 48 million tons in 2026-27 on maturing trees and the wider use of higher-yielding seed varieties, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

• Production growth is expected to be constrained by weather during 2026, with the dry season set to begin earlier in April, which could adversely impact yields, the Foreign Agricultural Service said in a note
• If the Indonesian government’s confiscation of illegal plantations persists, that could also impact output
• Indonesia’s 2026-27 palm oil exports may rise 4% to 25m tons on demand from major markets, including China and countries in South Asia, due to price competitiveness against other vegetable oils
  • For 2025-26, China’s demand seen at 2.5m-3.5m tons, while India may purchase 3.5m-4m tons
• Indonesia’s palm oil consumption set to rise 2% to 23.1m tons in 2026-27, up from from 22.7m tons; industrial sector use seen growing to 15.2m tons from 14.9m tons, assuming unchanged biodiesel blending rate
• Implementation of Indonesia’s B50 program expected to use 20b liters of palm biodiesel annually, while B40 mandate required 14.2b liters
  • Biodiesel production capacity reached 22b liters in early 2026, an increase of 2b liters from a year ago
• An additional 2b-3b liters of production capacity needed to facilitate B50, the note said, citing Indonesia’s biodiesel producers’ association
• Indonesia’s palm oil stockpiles in 2026-27 are forecast to fall 3% to 4.3m tons on higher domestic consumption and increased exports

 

French Wheat Conditions Steady in Week to April 13: AgriMer

About 84% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated as being in good or very good condition as of April 13, steady from the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed.

• That’s higher than at the same time a year earlier, when it was 75%
• Corn planting was 31% complete, versus 9% the prior week and 36% last year

 

Australia Secures Fertilizer From Indonesia to Meet Crop Needs

Australia will purchase 250,000 tons of agricultural grade urea from Indonesia to help fill gaps in its supply left by disruptions from the war in Iran.

In a deal facilitated by the two governments, Incitec Pivot Fertilizers Ltd. will purchase the urea from PT Pupuk Indonesia Holding Co., fulfilling about 20% of Australia’s remaining requirements for the upcoming winter crop, which includes major grains and oilseeds such as wheat, barley and canola.

Although there’s more to do, “this additional volume will go a long way to shoring up critical supplies to Australian farmers,” Incitec’s president, Scott Bowman, said in a statement.

Prices of fertilizer have doubled in parts of Australia since the outbreak of the war. About 60% of the nation’s supplies of urea normally travel through the now largely shut Strait of Hormuz. Some growers are rotating to less fertilizer-intensive crops to deal with the growing uncertainty, which will likely reduce the amount of wheat grown.

Like much of Southeast Asia, Indonesia is a major importer of Australian agricultural produce, especially wheat.

Indonesia has a surplus of 1.5 million tons of urea, which opens up an opportunity to export to countries including Australia, Indonesia’s Vice Agriculture Minister Sudaryono said in a separate statement. Other nations including India, the Philippines and Brazil have also have expressed an interest, he said.

 

US generated more ethanol blending credits in March, EPA says

The U.S. generated 1.24 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits in March, compared with about 1.14 billion in February, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to 651 million in March from 481 million in the prior month, according to the data.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 505k tons in the week ending April 11 from 535k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 14% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 20.9% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.27 per short ton, an increase of $0.04 from the previous week

 

MIXED WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BLACK SEA REGION

Weather anomaly severity: High

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat, Corn/Rapeseed/Spring Wheat (plantings)

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: Moderate for 10-days; low for 11-15 days

Forecast change: wetter for south Ukraine and Turkey

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• Cooler temperatures (2-6 °C below normal) were observed across the Black Sea region, except Kazakhstan (1 °C above normal) during the past week.
• Wet spells (5-35 mm above normal) were restricted to eastern Ukraine, Central/South Russia and western Kazakhstan crop belts.
• High soil moisture continues across the crop belts of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central/south Russia.
• Cooler-than-normal conditions (1 °C below average) are expected across the Black Sea region over the next 10 days, followed by warmer weather (2–8 °C above normal) mainly affecting eastern Ukraine, Russia, and the northern Kazakhstan crop belts.
• The Black Sea region is expected to experience dry conditions (up to 15 mm below normal), while wetter conditions (10–80 mm above normal) will be confined to southern Ukraine, the North Caucasus, and Turkey during the next 15‑day outlook.
• Isolated wet spells may be favorable for the development of winter wheat and rapeseed across Ukraine’s crop belts.

 

 

 

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