Global Ag News for Apr 26.24

TOP HEADLINES

EU Trims 2024-25 Wheat Crop Estimate; Corn Forecast Steady

The EU’s soft-wheat harvest is seen at 120.2m tons in the 2024-25 season, down from 120.8m tons in a March estimate, the European Commission said in a report.

• Exports forecast at about 31m tons; ending stockpiles seen at 12.2m tons, up slightly from March’s estimate
• Barley crop seen at 53.6m tons this year, similar to last month’s estimate
• Corn crop estimate steady at 69m tons
• Total grains production seen at 278.5m tons, down from a March estimate of 278.8m tons

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 0.04.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 53 1/2 in SRW, up 57 1/4 in HRW, up 44 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $2.20; Soyoil up 0.54.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 44 1/2 in SRW, up 60 1/2 in HRW, up 44 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 30 1/2; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil down 3.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.1% in SRW, down 1.7% in HRW, down 4.6% in HRS; Corn is down 6.5%; Soybeans down 10.5%; Soymeal down 11.6%; Soyoil down 6.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 68; Corn down 18 — Malaysian Palm is up 39.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+1.01%) at 3913.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 10 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 25 were: SRW Wheat up 7,012 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,475, Corn up 2,380, Soybeans down 23,738, Soymeal down 9,068, Soyoil down 5,871.

Northern Plains: There is potential for widespread and heavier showers continue through the weekend as two systems move close by. This favors the Dakotas more than Montana with heavier amounts, but all areas have potential for some needed rain. If rain is heavy, it could lead to some wetter fields and slow planting progress. More disturbances will move through next week with areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Several storm systems are going to move through the region going into early May that will keep the region busy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain, and strong winds are all going to be on the table in the active pattern. That does include some better chances at getting moisture into drier areas around Kansas that have seen drought increasing lately, but could slow down planting progress in places that have better soil moisture at the moment like Nebraska. The gaps between storms will be short for at least the next 10 days. Though not all areas will see rain falling from each storm, this will likely lead to some sort of delay in planting.

Midwest: Warmth will return Friday but so will an active pattern that will bring multiple storm systems through going into early May. Gaps between storms will be short, leading to delays in planting either due to soaked fields or just wet conditions.

Delta: Recent heavy rain has kept soils wet and likely caused some producers to delay planting, though that had been off to a quick start in most areas anyway. It could get busy again as the storm track runs from the Southern Plains through the Midwest going through next week, bringing risks of thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rain through the region going into May. The region will be on the edge of the storm track though, and may luck out with some more limited precipitation in areas that have become too wet.

Canadian Prairies: Mixed conditions over the winter and early spring have not been able to affect drought much in the region, which is expansive. An active pattern this week and next will bring rounds of showers through the region, but nothing overly heavy or widespread is forecast at the moment, which causes some delays to planting without providing much for soil moisture. Eastern areas have done better recently, though, and soil moisture there may be more favorable than for most of Alberta.

Brazil: Much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dry for the foreseeable future. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest, is seeing showers, but those will pull back south on Friday. The front makes a return next week, which may disrupt harvest, but may also get into the far southern safrinha corn areas as well.

Argentina: A front will continue to waffle around the northern end of the country through the weekend before getting pushed northward next week. Areas of heavier rain will affect harvest and make it difficult going into May as well as lead to quality issues for a fairly good looking crop. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

Europe: Cool and wet conditions have infiltrated much of Europe over the last week. Frosts have been common across northern growing areas where wheat is less developed, but has likely slowed down early planting of summer crops. Areas in the northwest like France and the UK continue to be too wet while Spain and areas in the south are welcoming the rain. The storm track will favor western areas with rainfall starting this weekend as it dries out a bit farther east. That will also increase temperatures across most of the continent. But the rain will likely migrate eastward later next week and could be followed by another burst of colder air.

Black Sea: The storm track has favored systems moving through western and central Ukraine at the expense of eastern Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia recently. Only streaks of light rain have moved through at times. That pattern continues through the weekend before getting drier everywhere next week. Hotter and drier conditions in the east have been unfavorable for wheat that is developing quickly after a warm and wet winter. Crop conditions for winter grains are no doubt falling in the region while planting progress is likely quicker than normal. The region could see more widespread rain next weekend, but that is a ways off.

Australia: Dry conditions are favored in most areas for the next week, though western areas should see some rain early next week and some showers may develop along the east coast next week as well. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting as the country awaits better soil moisture conditions for winter crop establishment. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

The player sheet for 4/25 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
• CORN AND SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought at least 30,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and at least 30,000 tons of soymeal, both to be sourced from optional origins in international tenders this week
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 106,675 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to sell and export 100,000 metric tons of durum wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 116,900 metric tonnes of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending April 18, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 196k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 645k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Philippines with 93k tons

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending April 18, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 11.3k tons of the 28.8k tons of pork sold in the week
• China led in beef purchases

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates April 25: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2023-24 corn and soybean production estimates maintained
• Corn harvest at 19.8% complete vs 17.2% in the previous week
• Soybeans 25.5% harvested vs 13.9%

Argentina grains exchange weighs cut to soy forecast on hot, dry weather

Dry and hot weather throughout the season in northern Argentina may lead the Buenos Aires grains exchange to reduce its estimate for the country’s 2023/24 soybean crop, currently sitting at 51 million metric tons, the exchange said on Thursday. The South American country is one of the world’s largest exporters of soy oil and soymeal.

In Argentina’s northern provinces, initial harvesting showed “below-average” yields, the exchange said.

“If this trend continues, our crop projection could be affected,” the exchange – which has already cut its estimate once this season on the weather – said.

The soybean harvest has been extremely delayed after constant, heavy rains in previous weeks left fields muddy. The harvest is 22.5% complete, 22.8 percentage points below the five-year average at this point in the season.

The 2023/24 corn harvest will also be affected by the heat, as well as the proliferation of the leafhopper insect, which has spread disease and already caused serious damage to the crop. The exchange said that despite the setbacks, it was maintaining its corn harvest estimate for the moment at 49.5 million tons.

South America weather experts see La Nina, El Nino frequency rising

The climate phenomena known as El Nino and La Nina, which bring waves of heat, cold, rain or drought, will be more frequent and extreme in coming years, after South America suffered the most intense El Nino in decades, weather experts said on Thursday.

According to the Ecuador-based International Center for Research on the El Nino Phenomenon (CIIFEN) and the Peruvian meteorology and hydrology agency SENAMHI, the recent El Nino was among the five strongest since 1950.

“The pattern has changed a lot,” said Yolanda Gonzalez Hernandez, director of CIIFEN, at a press conference after a meeting of experts from the region in Lima on climate.

“Where before there was no significant impact of the El Nino phenomenon, now they are occurring with more intensity.”

Gonzalez said temperature changes from one to the other will be faster, with a La Nina expected for the second half of this year, replacing the El Nino that is starting to weaken.

El Nino and La Nina hit different parts of the world distinctly. In Latin America they have affected crops such as wheat, soy and corn, damaging regional economies often highly dependent on farming.

“We are permanently breaking records at the local, national and global level in temperature anomalies,” said Gonzalez.

Temperatures are estimated to be above normal in much of South America, although below normal on the coast of Ecuador, northern Peru, and southern Argentina and Chile.

With the recent El Nino, Peru had the warmest winter in the last 60 years, according to CIIFEN, while in Colombia, temperatures reached records in different parts of the country. Argentina and Chile saw more rain, which in the former helped soy and corn production after a drought the year before.

Bird Flu Virus Found in One in Five US Milk Samples, FDA Says

Fragments of the bird flu virus have been found in about one fifth of commercial milk samples tested in a US nationally representative study, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

While the presence of traces of the virus in milk doesn’t necessarily indicate a risk to consumers, more tests are needed to confirm if intact pathogen is present and remains infectious, the FDA said in a statement on its website. That would determine “whether there is any risk of illness associated with consuming the product,” it added.

The initial study results offer a stark indication of how quickly a virus that has killed millions of birds globally is spreading among US dairy cows, raising health and food security woes while spooking markets.

The FDA said there’s a higher proportion of positive tests coming from milk in areas with infected herds. The US Department of Agriculture has confirmed 33 infected herds in eight states including Texas, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio. On Wednesday, the USDA implemented mandatory testing of dairy cows moving across state borders as part of efforts to understand the extent of the outbreak and contain the virus.

Authorities have reaffirmed that the risk to humans remain low. So far this year, the US has only identified one person who has been infected — and there’s been no human-to-human transmission. The person, who had direct contact with contaminated cattle, experienced only minor symptoms and was treated with Tamiflu.

“To date, the retail milk studies have shown no results that would change our assessment that the commercial milk supply is safe,” FDA said.

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 10.9% Y/y in March

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.38b pounds in March, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 12.3% y/y to 2.11b pounds
• March cattle slaughter totaled 2.51m head, a 14.6% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 26 pounds from last year to 1,392 pounds
• Pork production down 9.6% y/y to 2.25b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 8.8% y/y to 10,456m head
  • Avg live weight was 289 pounds vs 292 pounds a year ago

US Winter Wheat Crops in Drought Area Rise to 30%: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending April 23, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Winter wheat experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by 6 percentage points from the previous week
• Corn area in drought remained at 23%, while soybean area dropped by a point to 21%

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 463k tons in the week ending April 20 from 500k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn little changed from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 10.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $8.26 per short ton, a decline of $0.40 from the previous week

 

 

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