Written Commentary
by Steve Freed,
Grains are mixed. SN is up 3 cents and near 8.44. CN is up 1 cent and near 3.18. WN is down 5 cents and near 5.41. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Most commodities are higher. Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton and Copper are trying to find support. US Dollar is lower. Concern about over supply and deflation may be offset by talk that certain parts of US economy may soon slowly reopen. Besides watching demand numbers, grains will now also be trading weather.
US Midwest 6-10 day forecast calls for normal to below temps east and normal west and normal rains with above normal rains in Delta and Ohio River Valley.
July soybeans found support on Tuesday near important price. Tuesday volume increased. SN is a broad range between 8.20-8.60. Concern about demand offers resistance. Uncertainty over US 2020 crop size and demand may be offering seasonal support. Talk China is trying to rebuild hog herd may also be supportive. SMN also found support near 285 on increase volume. Could be in a 290-300 range. BON also found support near 25 cents despite recent drop in palmoil prices.
July corn may have found support near 3.00. Volume increased on Tuesday. Cash markets are finding support due to slow US farmer selling and some export interest in US corn. Market needs to see increase fuel and feed demand or a weather problem to move higher. US planting progress continue to advance.
July Chicago wheat continues to consolidate between 5.20-5.60. Uncertainty over Europe and Black Sea weather and Black Sea export pace offers support. Slow global demand and improved weather especially in Black Sea could weigh on prices. Drop in US winter wheat crop ratings due to drier weather could be also offer support.
On Tuesday, Managed Money were sellers of 2,000 wheat , sold 16,000 corn, bought 2,000 soybeans and 2,000 soymeal and sold 6,000 soyoil We estimate Managed funds are net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 179,000 Corn; net even Soybeans; net long 7,000 lots of Soymeal and; net short 16,000 Soyoil.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
