ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was high early Tuesday, taking out last week’s high and reaching its highest level since September 17. A lack of adequate rainfall in west Africa, particularly Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana, suggests that the concerns about El Nino and its potential effect on production are being validated. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters that rains were well below average last week and that they were worried about the size and the quality of the latter half of the main crop. Several farmers said they expect to see a cocoa shortage in January as the number of young fruits currently growing on trees was very low compared with the same month last year. World Weather Inc. expects an erratic rainfall pattern in West Africa during the next week or so, which will leave Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana in greater need.
SUGAR
March Sugar edged higher early Tuesday following a rally on Monday that took prices back in the vicinity of the contract high from earlier this month. Weather-related crop problems in Europe, India, and Brazil this year have tightened the supply demand setup. Brazil has seen too much rain, which has interrupted harvest and lowered the sugar content in the cane. High energy prices have also encouraged crushers to focus more of their efforts on ethanol. The rains in Brazil are believed to have slowed down harvest and crushing activity this month as well, and there are expectation that the harvest season will come to an early conclusion this year, leaving more cane to be harvested in 2027. The USDA Foreign Ag Service recently revised its European Union sugar production estimate for the 2026/27 season that started in October down to 13.15 million metric tons from 14.35 million tons previously. France’s farm ministry just cut its forecast for this year’s sugar beet production outlook to 25.3 million tons from 25.4 million estimated in September. This would be down 30% from last year and the lowest in ministry records dating back to 1980. Harvesting just getting underway.
COFFEE
December Coffee edged higher early Tuesday after falling to their lowest level since October 1 on Monday. The dominant story for this market has been the strong production and export pace out of Brazil. This was given further immediacy when Cecafe reported on Friday that Brazil had exported 3.58 million bags of green coffee in September, up 3.2% from September 2025. However, the fact that arabica exports were down 7% from a year ago at 2.77 million bags may have tempered some of the bearish news. Key growing areas in Brazil are expected to receive rain at one time or another over this week, which should be beneficial for 2027 crop development. The Brazilian real is holding its gains from last week, which was the highest it had been since May. The strong currency may discourage export sales.
COTTON
December Cotton was near unchanged early Tuesday as the market traded inside Monday’s range, which was inside Friday’s range. The weekly US Crop Progress report was postponed due to the holiday on Monday and will be released Tuesday. Friday’s USDA supply demand report was bearish against expectations but it did not do significant damage to the market. The US and world stocks/use ratios were up from the September estimates but were still down from year ago and below the five-year averages. The US dollar reached its highest level in traded around its highest in a year and a half on Monday but had backed off those levels early Tuesday. The stronger currency does not help US export prospects. Some fiber damage is expected from Hurricanes Isaias in the southeast and Rachel in the southwest. The COT report showed the fund net long was down to 63,837 contracts as of October 6 after reaching a near record of 107,976 on September 1, which eases concerns about an overbought setup. Harvest conditions are less than ideal.
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