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Choppy Trade Ahead of Key Asia Demand


The market remains choppy with a sharp break this morning. September cocoa closed higher for the fourth session in a row yesterday, as the market continued its bounce off last week’s contract lows. Swiss cocoa processor Barry Callebaut said its chocolate sales were up 9.1% for the first nine months of the fiscal year. West African growers said rains last week made it difficult to gain access to plantations and that they were worried about accessing crop chemicals as well. Until the market receives critical demand-side data later this week, cocoa remains vulnerable to volatile trade.


The market has seen an impressive rally off of the lows last week with the market bouncing off of the lowest level since September. Traders await more supply news out of Brazil as Vietnam supplies are tight and producers seem mostly sold out. September coffee closed higher yesterday on follow-through from its bounce off Friday’s 10-minth low. The world’s largest coffee coop, located in Brazil, stated that 42% of the fields in the area where it operates have been harvested, which is on a similar pace to last year. Local Arabica prices in Brazil have reportedly been very volatile in recent days.


The shift to a wet pattern for West Texas in the 6-14 day models might spark some adjustments higher in production. December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday after trading to its highest level since July 12. Providing underlying support to the market are ongoing concerns about the condition of the Texas crop, which has been under a severe drought for months.


October sugar traded to its highest level in over a month on Monday, but it closed lower for two sessions in a row and has given up more than half of its gains off the July 5th low. The Indian government may allow sugar mills to export more than previously permitted to prevent contract defaults, which would mean more supply on the world market.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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