Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.22. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Trade est of Brazil soybean crop at 169.1 mmt vs USDA 169 and Argentina 48.8 mmt vs USDA 49. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 379 mil bu vs USDA 380. Brazil soybean harvest is near 60-65 pct. One group lowered US 2024/25 soybean exports 125 mil bu and 2025/26 soybean exports 665 mil bu. Managed funds sold 43,000 soybean, 22,000 soymeal and 33,000 soyoil contracts last week. Index funds also sold 17,000 soymeal contracts last week.
CORN
CK is near 4.69. Dalian corn futures were higher. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. Brazil corn supply tight before safrina harvest in July. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in E WCB, ECB and SE. Mexico could leave corn off retaliatory list. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 126.0 mmt vs USDA 126.0 and Argentina at 49.0 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout at 1,516 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. Managed funds sold 117,000 corn contracts last week. Index funds also sold 62,000 corn contracts last week.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.58. KWK is near 5.71. MWK is near 5.96. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. Russia export margins are improving. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 797 mil bu vs USDA 794. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. Funds are short 118,000 Chicago and KC futures. This adds to price volatility Index funds sold 32,000 Chicago and KC wheat last week.
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