Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) job openings report measures the number of job openings excluding the farming industry during Octobers so far. Alphabet and AMD both are set to release earnings after the close today. Should set the tone for the other tech stocks Microsoft and Meta releasing theirs tomorrow.
Ag Fundamentals:
Rains in Brazil have been sufficient recently and the next 2 weeks are looking good for most growing areas. There may be some dryness in the northern Brazilian region over the next 30 days, but i don’t think it will effect crop prices here in the US as much as China’s demand picture moving forward. China is watching the US election very close as we are now 1 week away from a new president. I don’t expect China to step in an purchase a large tender of beans before Tuesday next week. Soybean harvest will be very close to wrapped up by then. Colorado (corn) is now the only state -1% behind the 5-year harvest pace for both corn and beans. Kentucky in line with the last 5 years for corn. Crude oil is also putting pressure on prices, dropping below $67 a barrel. Crude oil has recovered slightly to prices closer to $68 per barrel.
JOLTS Job Openings Chart from 2005 to present shows we have dropped down significantly from the May of 2022 post COVID highs(11.55M openings) . Last report was earlier this month at 8.04M openings. the Market is expecting to see 7.98M at 9am this morning.
Winter Wheat Good/Excellent values are not looking great for the staked states west of Missouri. Arkansas also showing low quality. It is early in the season and wheat is a resilient crop.
South America’s 30-Day Precip Anomaly Map has plenty of rain in Southern Brazil, but a slight deficit in the northern Brazil and northern Argentina regions.
Export & World News
Flash sale of corn to Japan and Unknown mentioned yesterday. South Korea is looking to buy u[ to 207K MT of corn. Tunisia issued a tender to buy up to 75K Mt of durum wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 104 ringgit overnight, at 4633.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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