Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
The USDA will release the Prospective Planting and Quarterly stocks Report today at 11:00 am CST. Estimates for today’s report can be seen below. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated to be 82% complete at this point. This time last year they were only 74% harvested. This is the fastest pace on record as weather in the major growing areas has been cooperative for field work. Dryness in Rio Grande do Sol has allowed for no harvest disruptions and yields are also slightly lower than expected which may also be contributing to the speedy cut. Central and southern Brazil will receive some scattered showers over then next 7 days, but will dry up over the 8-14 day forecast.
Weather:
April showers are hitting Arkansas, eastern Tennessee, the bootheel of Missouri, and into the Ohio River Valley. This will slow planting progress in the southern states. River levels are expected to rise up to 10 feet on the lower Mississippi and about 8 feet on the Ohio river in the next 10 days. Winter Wheat growing areas will see some rain relief, but not as much as the soil moisture map suggests they need.
MARCH 31 PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS ESTIMATE
|
(Million bushels) | Average Est. | Estimate Range | USDA March 24 | Change y/y |
Corn | 8,154 | 8,060 – 8,311 | 8,352 | -198 |
Soybeans | 1,905 | 1,823 – 2,015 | 1,845 | 60 |
Wheat | 1,221 | 1,169 – 1,260 | 1,089 | 132 |
The 14-Day Precipitation Anomaly Map below shows mostly drier than normal weather expected for Brazil in the next 14 days. Any precip in the south/central areas will be in the next 4-6 days.
April Showers: The next 7 days show the Ohio River Valley and the Mid south will get hit with up to 6 inches of rain in the first week of April. |
Export & World News
South Korea bought up to 68K MT of animal feed corn in an international tender.
Malaysian palm oil futures are closed for holiday.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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