Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
Mark Carney won a leadership race in Canada over the weekend against the former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. Carney has also spent most of his career in finance, with experience as the head of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis, and the Bank of England during Brexit. Mark will replace Trudeau as the Liberal Party leader and will be on the ballet against (most likely) Pierre Poilievre. Mark Carney has already vowed to win the trade war between the US and Canada.
Ag Fundamentals:
The USDA WASDE report will be out tomorrow at 11:00 am CST. With Funds and managed money having a selling frenzy last week, speculators are looking to jump back in this week for any sort of corrective bump in the corn and bean complex,l both getting hit with record selling last week. Last August, Canada imposed steep taxes on Chinese electric vehicles (100%), steel and aluminum (25%). Over the weekend, China announced 100% tariffs on canola meal, canola oil, and peas. Additionally, a 25% tariff was added to any pork and seafood heading to China from Canada as well. Speculation around this announcement also suggests China is warning Canada to tread lightly around trade negotiations between the US and Canada. This was not directly stated in China’s comments. Last year, Canada exported about $1 billion worth of canola oil and canola meal. There was no mention of canola seed in this announcement, so i imagine China will have their buying shoes on today and tomorrow regarding canola seed. Canada exported about 5.86 million Mt of Canola seed, 15.4K MT of canola oil and 2.01 million MT of canola meal to China in 2024.
March WASDE Report Estimates:
US Canola Growing Regions can be found scattered throughout the country, but mostly concentrated in North Dakota, Montana, and northwest Minnesota.
Canadian Canola Growing Region mainly found in southern regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba provinces.
Canadian Canola Processing Facilities are labeled below. Bunge with the most presence with 5 facilities.
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
South Korea bought about 131K MT of animal feed corn in an international tender. Japan bought about 94K MT of food-quality whet from the US, Canada and Australia on Thursday last week.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 129 ringgit overnight, now at 4496.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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