Written Commentary
GEOPOLITICS:
President Trump signed many new executive orders on Monday afternoon. None of which included tariffs; he decided to punt his day 1 tariff promise. Trump said yesterday evening that he may place a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico by February 1st. The dollar is down on no news of tariffs being placed on day one. Oil is down $2/barrel with expectations of Trump’s “drill baby drill” policies to take effect. Action was baked into the market cake, so inaction will move markets until it becomes clear how the chess pieces will fall on the board. Some of the other executive orders include, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, declaring a national energy emergency allowing for fast-track plant construction, and declaring an national emergency at the border and sending troops. The World Economic Forum will continue today through Friday January 24th. Topics will likely revolve around Trumps impact, global currencies, geopolitical conflicts and energy.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Argentina and parts of Southern Brazil that were lacking rainfall in the last 30 days received up to 1 inch of rain or more over the weekend. Regardless of the weekend rainfall, Argentina is still expected to lower crop conditions and ultimately production estimates. At this point in their growing season more rain may not be able to reverse the damages caused by drought. Northern Brazil should be able to take advantage of drier weather over the coming days to continue harvest progress on pace. Weakness in the dollar is giving commodities support this morning. Export inspections will be out later this morning, EIA energy stocks report is pushed to Thursday and last week’s export sales will come out on Friday this week.
Today’s Minimum Temperatures. Expectations are that some of these low temps could have an effect on the dormant wheat crop.
Snowfall now through February 5th. Looks like there will be more snow in Florida than in IL over the next 2 weeks.
Export & World News
Thailand is believed to have bought 195K MT of animal feed wheat. Japan is in the market to buy up to 126K MT of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada and Australia.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 4 ringgit overnight
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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