Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
The USDA will release it’s February WASDE and Crop Production report on Tuesday (2/11/25) next week. Last week’s ethanol production was the third highest on record at 1.112 million barrels per day, and expectations are that corn usage for ethanol is raised another 20-40 million bushels. Corn export sales were on the high end of expectations last week. March corn futures are hitting some resistance at $5 with the next layer of headwind at the 507’4 retracement. We will see more corn acres in the US next year which will also offer resistance. Corn planting in Brazil has not been perfectly smooth with rain delays causing many to believe they will loose production. Additionally Argentina’s hot and dry weather is also putting pressure on corn production in South America. Estimates suggest the USDA may lower their Argentina corn crop from 51 MMT to between 45-49 MMT. The US Pacific Northwest is still the best bargain for global buyers today. The soybean chart is not looking good, closing above the 200 day moving average earlier this week just to reverse yesterday and continue lower today. Export sales last week were on the lower end of the estimate range and the window is closing in on the US soybean export program. Brazil is seeing some delays in there bean harvest, but they will likely have a glut of beans hitting the market within the next 30 days. The WASDE report next week may take Argentina bean production down, but many are anticipating an increase in Brazil’s production above 170 MMT. Wheat was on the upper end of export sales estimates for last week, and it appears Russia is raising the floor price by increasing their export prices slightly. Wheat has been inching closer to $6 target and closing the corn/wheat spread gap. Concerns about quality in the US will rely on spring weather. Wheat is a resistant crop and is expected to recover.
WEATHER:
Another winter cold surge is leaking into the northern plains and within the next 5-10 days will reach as far south as Oklahoma. The south east is expected to receive rain in the next 5 days, but the central US is still lacking moisture. South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa don’t look great on the drought monitor below.
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 438,000 | 200K-500K | 47,300 | 0-50K |
Corn | 1,477,200 | 850K-1,500K | 50,000 | 0-100K |
Beans | 387,700 | 300K-1,100K | 0 | 0-50K |
Meal | 530,600 | 200K-500K | 2,000 | 0 |
Soyoil | 2,200 | (15K)-30K | 0 | 0 |
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
South Korea purchased about 85K Mt of milling wheat from the US and issued a tender to buy up to 1120K MT of animal feed corn. Jordan is in the market to buy up to 120K MT of milling wheat and 120K MT of barley.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 69 ringgit overnight, at 4403.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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