Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
Trump says, “Ukraine may be Russia someday”. This comes after the Kremlin states the US needs to recognize new realities if they want peace. Ukraine is still looking to make deals, including trading weapons and military support from the US for Ukrainian rare earth metals. Additionally, Trump stated that is the hostages held by Hamas must be released by this Saturday at noon or “all Hell will break loose”.
MACROECONOMICS:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak today at 9:00am CST. Any time Powell is speaking the market moves. He will have a prepared statement followed by a question and answer session. The questions are not scripted which creates an environment of the unknown that active traders will listen to closely. The newly added 25% steel and aluminum tariffs will begin to take effect on March 12th. Core CPI and month-over-month CPI data is released tomorrow at 7:30am CST.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
A relief to Argentina, rain is falling in Buenos Aries Argentina this morning as storms work across major growing areas, and the weather is clearing up in central Brazil to help move bean harvest along. A slow soybean planting season in Brazil as well as the recent stormy weather has slowed the pace of Brazil’s harvest. Brazil is estimated to have 14% of their soybean crop harvested; they were 24% harvested this time last year. This delay has also pushed back their 2nd corn crop planting progress. As weather begins to cooperate, South American harvest pressure will begin to put pressure on board prices here in the US. The WASDE report will need to show a substantial drop in ending stocks today to combat that bearish pressure. Corn has lead the board rally in recent months, a US ending stock less than 1.5 billion bushels would helps sustain that rally. Bulls need to be fed. Freezing temps in the US leaking into wheat country could possibly worsen the wheat crop conditions heading into spring. Not alot of movement in the options market this morning. Expecting speculators to jump into positions following the WASDE report release at 11:00am CST.
Ending Stock Estimates for Today’s WASDE Report
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
China’s soybean meal basis values have spiked over 250% year-to-date due to delayed cargoes. Bangladesh issued an international tender to buy up to 50K MT of milling wheat. South Korea is also in the market o buy 50-60K MT of animal feed wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 89 ringgit overnight, at 4593.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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