BQC Morning Comments Apr 4.2025

Geopolitics: Two US senators have introduced a bipartisan bill earlier this week (Wednesday) that would give Congress the power to approve or disapprove new tariffs established by the President. It is called the “Trade Review Act of 2025” and was brought to the senate by Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Maria Cantwell of Washington. This bill will also force the President to explain the reason behind each new tariff and potential impact on the US economy. Then the new tariff and it’s explanation  would be put to a vote in Congress.

Macroeconomics: All US imports (excluding some goods like copper, gold, lumber, energy, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals) are subject to the 10% baseline tariff beginning at 12:01 am April 5th. The remaining reciprocal tariffs will take effect on April 9th at 12:01 am. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 5% yesterday, the largest 1-day decline since 2020, and entered correction territory. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also recorded their worst day since 2020 and may feel more pain again today with news from China.

Ag Fundamentals: CHINA IMPOSES 34% TARIFF ON ALL GOODS IMPORTED FROM THE US. The Chinese Finance Ministry said earlier this morning that these retaliatory tariffs will go into effect on April 10th. This is in response to the 54% tariffs the US has put on China. Spot soybeans fell below $990 for the first time since December. 978’0 seems to be the next level of support which was the low in March during the Denver Commodity Classic. Soybeans down another 20¢ this morning, corn down a nickel on the news, Chicago wheat a dime lower, the dollar dropped about 30 basis points on the index, and crude oil is tanking to near $62/barrel.

Weather: Major flooding in the mid-south and lower Midwest this week will result in some replanting efforts after the storms subside. There will be a 20-30 foot increase on river gauges along the Ohio and Lower Mississippi river.