Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
This morning we saw another flash sale of 120K MT of corn to an unknown destination. Since April 2nd (“Liberation Day”) All US flash sales of soybeans have gone to “Unknown” destinations. Yesterday, there was a Reuters article that reported China has goals to lower grain use in livestock feed to 60% and the soymeal ration to 10%. Soybean meal has made up 13% of their feed ratio since 2023. The goal is to accomplish this by 2030. This is all in response to the US/China Trade War and China again is looking to take a longer-term approach to the global conflict. By 2028, the US may have a totally different White House and China could be in a better position with greater leverage.
MACROECONOMICS:
The US economy contracted -0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. According to this morning’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) report this is the first negative print of US GDP growth since July of 2022. One thing to note, imports increased 41.3% which takes away from GDP. Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first three months of 2025 to avoid the potential price increases caused by pending tariffs. The Dollar slightly dropped following the report, but remains above 99.30 on the index this morning.
US Flash Sales Since April 2nd
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The US GDP drops -0.3% in Q1 2025. This is the first negative GDP number since July of 2022. GDP month over month was down -.2% accounting for most of the losses in March. ADP Non-farm employment change was reported -52K fewer new jobs than expected. The Advanced GDP Price Index which is a broad indicator of inflation rose to 3.7% for Q1 2025, 0.6% higher than expected.
Export & World News
This morning USDA reported a flash sale of 120K MT of corn to an unknown destiantion. South Korea purchased about 60K MT of animal feed wheat in an international tender. South Korea also bought around 132K MT of animal feed corn this morning.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 37 ringgit overnight, now at 3906.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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