Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Rain hitting the Northern Plains this morning giving the Dakotas and Minnesota a sip of moisture before planting begins in a big way. Later this week northern Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Missouri and Arkansas will receive some heavier rains, but they should be well into their planting season and the rain should not hurt progress. Mid-May is when the most intense planting progress takes place in the US. If we continue to receive heavier rains between now and then, prevent plant could enter the conversation, but for now rain makes grain. Both corn an d beans have managed to stay above the major moving averages over the weekend, but grains are staring the week lower. Planting progress and winter wheat crop condition report will be out later this afternoon.
GEOPOLITICS:
Canada should find out later his evening who will be the next Prime Minister. The race is between the Liberal Party leader and current Prime Minister Mark Carney and the conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. At the beginning of the year, following a shift in US politics, many believed Canada would follow suit and elect Pierre. Since then, the wedge the Trump administration has put between the US and Canada has changed the minds of many to lean toward the liberal party again. Today, Mark Carney is favored to win 80/20 on Polymarket and in most polls taken. If everything goes to plan, we should know tonight who the next leader of Canada will be for the next 4 years.
Canadian Prime Minister Election Odds according to Polymarket. Pierre Poilievre in blue and Mark Carney in red.
The Canadian Dollar is currently trading between the 50 and 100-day moving average.
How it trades over the next month will give light to it’s recovery from late January lows.
Areas at Risk of Frost on Tuesday. The rest of the week is warm enough o relieve concerns.
Export & World News
South Korea bought about 60K Mt of corn in an international tender this week. South Korea is also looking to buy up to 80K Mt of rice.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 96 ringgit overnight, now at 3961.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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