BQC Afternoon Comments May 19.2025

Geopolitics: “I believe it went very well.” A quote from President Trump regarding the 2-hour phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Russia and Ukraine are expected to begin negotiations toward a ceasefire immediately. Russia is looking for a large scale trade agreement with the US following an end to the war, Trump agreed. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy agreed to meet with Putin in Istanbul. VP JD Vance and Zelenskyy had a good conversation at the Vatican over the weekend, hashing out plans and reestablishing a good relationship between the two following their last spat in the White House. Overall, the situation seems much more optimistic today than heading into the weekend last week. 
Ag Fundamentals: This morning there was a flash sale of 125K MT of soybean meal to the Philippines. Corn export inspections were reported this morning at the higher side of the estimate range at 67.7 million bushels. That is a big jump from the corn inspections last week at just above 50 million bushels. only 48 million per week needed to reach the USDA corn export year end estimate. Soybean export inspections were below expectations are 8 million bushels and below the 13 million needed per week to hit the USDA’s expectation. Wheat export inspections were in line with the estimate range at 16 million bushels. On Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report, we saw managed money corn position flip negative for the first time since November 2024, and the largest short position at -85K contracts in over 7 months. Weather and planting progress are still the main focus in the US but a large position change like that is always important to keep in mind. In the US, farmers have finished planting 78% of corn intentions, and 66% soybeans. Corn is 5% ahead of the 5-year average pace and soybeans are 13% ahead of schedule. Winter Wheat conditions dropped -2% from 54% last week to 52% this week. Rains will continue to hit most of the wheat belt for the next 5-7 days.