BQC Afternoon Comments Mar 18.2025

Geopolitics: Russian President Putin agreed to a temporary ceasefire on energy and infrastructure following his phone call with President Trump. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated he “is going to support” the temporary halt after hearing Putin agreed. Ukraine previously agreed to a 30-day ceasefire deal laid out by Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia last week. The details and timeline of what Putin agreed to are not apparent yet. Trump posted on Truth social he would like to start “working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire, and ultimately, an END” to this war. They also discussed and agreed that they can’t let Iran step into a position to destroy Israel.  
Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve meeting concludes tomorrow and will report the change or no change to the federal funds interest rate at 1:00pm CST. Jerome Powell will speak at a press conference around 1:30pm. CST. Uncertainty looms around this month’s press conference more than the reported interest rate. The market is 99% sure there will not be a cut tomorrow. The questions start to pop up around how many cuts we should expect the rest of the year. We have gone from “4 cuts in 2025” to “maybe one cut in December 2025”. Now the market is betting on 2 cuts the rest of the year, one by June and then another in the 4th quarter. If the Fed believes we are headed for an economic slowdown, we will most likely see those cuts and potentially 3 total. Hoping to hear Jerome’s opinion about the tariffs moving forward.
Ag Fundamentals: S&P Global increased their 2025 US corn acre estimate +800K acres from 93.5M to 94.3M. This would be 3.7M acres more than last year. Some southern US states are beginning to work ground and even planting in parts of TX, AR, LA, MS and AL. Ethanol production tomorrow is expected to be between 309-318M gallons vs. 312M the previous week. Brazil is increasing their ethanol blend in gasoline from 27.5% to 30% which will increase corn usage. S&P Global kept their 2025 US soybean acre estimate steady at 83.3M acres. The USDA estimating 84M bean acres.