BQC Afternoon Comments Mar 17.2025

Geopolitics: Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney was sworn in on Friday last week and his first trip to a foreign country was not to the US but rather to France and the UK. Carney stated he is focused on working with “reliable allies” and that economic collaboration, not confrontation,is the way to build strong economies–a shot a President Trump. Carney already has strong ties to Europe seeing he was the governor of the Bank of England from 2013-2020. France is Canada’s 11th largest trade partner. The UK is Carney’s third largest partner. French President Macron and Carney discussed their trade relationship and support for Ukraine. Carney mentioned Ukraine’s president Zelensky is invited to the June G7 summit hosted in Alberta.
Macroeconomics: China laid out steps they plan on taking to boost their economic consumption. Today, China’s industrial production and retail sales were both reported higher than expected. China’s unemployment rate however was reported at 5.4% which is the highest since March of 2023. They wish to install measures to maintain volatility in both their stock and real estate markets, lift wages and increase their country’s birthrate. This Chinese economic news was followed up by Trump’s Truth Social post stating the US may retaliate against Iran if the Houthis continue to attack. The post stated “IRAN will be held responsible”. Both bullish for crude oil.  
Ag Fundamentals: Corn export inspections were down 7.3 million bushels week-over-week, in line with expectations, but still the second highest inspection volume this marketing year. Mexico, Japan and Colombia taking around half of the reported corn export inceptions. Soybeans were also in line with expectations at 24 million bushels. China was the buyer for over 60% of soybean inspections. Wheat export inspections were above expectations at 18 million bushels which is 10 million more than the week prior. Soybean crush margins have pulled back recently, similar to ethanol margins shrinking. Wheat quality in the US is starting to feel weather pressure just as it reemerges from dormancy. Russian wheat exports have decreased and will continue to do so as their government cuts prices for domestic flour and bread.