Written Commentary
Geopolitics: Attorney General Pam Bondi is scheduled to hold a press conference today at 4:30. Topics of discussion are unknown. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has invited Trump to Moscow and would like to begin discussion around peace in Ukraine. Over the phone the two leaders discussed “Ukraine, the Middle East, AI, the Dollar, and various subjects”.
Ag Fundamentals: This morning 130K Mt of corn was sold to unknown destinations and 120K MT of soybeans was also sold to unknown destinations. Both Sales were for the 2024/2025 crop year. This is the first soybean flash sale reported in the month of February; last reported flash sale of beans was on January 22nd to China. March corn board prices have regained 4.90 and nearly erased the losses on the week so far. Ethanol figures are below, production remains strong between domestic usage and exports. Weather in Brazil over the next 10 days will have pockets of dry weather to allow for planting their 2nd corn crop. Argentina is expecting rain which may pull some crop ratings up from their Dry January. China is rumored to have purchased more Argentina soybean cargoes this week as well. The US dollar fell below 108.00 around noon CST today, after it began the day sharply higher due to the CPI report. The dollar is now slightly below 108.00.
Below is the Change in Interest Rate Probability over the last 4 weeks for the Fed’s September Decision. Expectations are the next cut may not come until October or December.
Export Sales Estimates (Week ending 1/31/25)
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | _______ | 200K-600K | _______ | 0-75K |
Corn | _______ | 800K-1,700K | _______ | 0-500K |
Beans | _______ | 300K-800K | _______ | 0-50K |
Meal | _______ | 200K-600K | _______ | 0-25K |
Soyoil | _______ | 0-25K | _______ | 0-10K |
EIA Weekly Ethanol Production (For Week Ending 2/7/2025)
Ethanol Production was down 30K barrels per day week-over-week but still remains on the top side of the 5-year chart
EIA Weekly Ethanol Stocks
Ethanol Stocks dropped to 25.692 million barrels. no changes to the USDA’s usage expectations on yesterday’s WASDE report.
EIA Weekly Implied Corn Usage
Implied Corn Usage reported 108.78 million bushels of corn used last week for ethanol production, down nearly 2 million bushels from the week prior.
CALENDAR SPREADS
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COST OF CARRY
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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