BQC Afternoon Comments Feb 11.2025

Feb WASDE Report Takeaways:
Soybeans

• The USDA cut soybean production in Argentina by 3 MMT but also cut China’s bean imports by 2.5 MMT, now at 8 MMT. 
• Brazilian bean production unchanged at 169 MMT, even with most of the market convinced they will harvest greater than 170 MMT.
• US  ending stocks unchanged and 6 million bushels above the average estimate.
• Global ending stocks dropped 4 MMT mostly thanks to Argentina(-3MMT) and Paraguay (-500K MT) production cuts.
• The average farm price was lowered a dime to $10.10
• Stocks to use unchanged at 8.7%
• Next line of support for SH5 beans is 1032’0

Corn

• Both Brazil and Argentina dropped -1 MMT each off of corn production. 
• China cut their import demand by -3 MMT to 10 MMT.
• Global stocks cut 3 MMT despite leaving the US ending stocks unchanged.
• US farm price was raised a dime to $4.35
• Ethanol, exports, Feed and FSI all unchanged from January.
• Stocks to use unchanged at 10.2%
• CH5 support at 480’0 then 472’0
• US planting intentions are going to be here before you know it. (93M acres?)

Wheat

• Flour demand allowed for the only change to US ending stocks -4 million bushels.
• Australia production left unchanged at 32 MMT
• Russia exports dropped from 46 to 45.5 MMT
• Ukraine exports dropped from 16 to 15.5 MMT
• Global ending stocks reported about 1 MMT less than the average estimate.