Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. Poor weekly US soybean export sales weighed on prices. Better 2 week US Midwest weather forecast and a favorable NOAA 90 day US Midwest weather outlook weighed on prices. Funds continue to liquidate a small net long futures position. July soybean are back testing 8.40 support. There is a need for increase interest for US soybean exports to support prices. Weekly soybean export sales were near 9 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,382 mil bu vs 1,625 last year. Commit is running 243 mil bu behind last year. USDA estimates US exports to be 27 mil bu above last year. This suggest final exports could be below USDA guess. Talk of lower US demand for domestic soymeal could also lower crush demand.
CORN
Corn futures traded mixed. Nearby corn was supported by bull spread trade due to slowdown in farmer selling. New crop Dec was under pressure due to talk of better US Midwest planting weather next week and NOAA 90 day US Midwest forecast that calls for favorable summer weather. Continued US export sales pace below level to reach USDA goal and crop in domestic fuel and feed demand offered resistance. Four refiners in TX, LA, UT and OK have requested waivers. Weekly corn sales were near 35 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,364 mil bu vs 1,759 last year. Commit is running 395 mil bu behind last year. USDA estimates US exports to be 340 mil bu below last year. Some forecast total US 2019/20 corn demand could be down another 300 mil bu. There was a report that China may soon begin to sell corn from reserves to restock and put pressure on domestic corn prices.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Wheat futures continue to take out weather premium. Talk of rains next week in Russia and improving conditions in Australia offers resistance. Managed funds continue to liquidate out of the net long Chicago wheat position. Weekly wheat sales were only 6 mil bu. Total commit is near 926 mil bu vs 915 last year. Commit is running 11 mil bu above last year. USDA estimates US exports to be 49 mil bu above last year. Egypt bought 240 mt of wheat in their tender, they bought 180 mt Russian wheat and 60 mt French wheat. July Chicago wheat futures is testing support. Trade below today’s low could trigger additional fund selling.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
