Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher but off session high. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude rallied to near 86.28 after Israel attack on Iran. Crude dropped back to 83.16 when market felt attack was isolated and no refineries or nuclear plants. Iran said they would not respond.
SK is remains near key support. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. Soymeal was higher. China Ag Minister continues to report lower hog herd. US soybean export commit is down 18 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 12. US talk of increasing China steel tariff from 7 pct to 25 could reduce China interest in US soybeans. US soymeal commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 7. Argentina est soybean crop near 49 mmt vs USDA 50. Crop is rated 77 pct G/E. Harvest is slowed by rains. Soyoil futures are making new lows on increase US supply vs demand. Palmoil also lower on seasonal increase in production.
CK is near 4.31. US domestic cash remains firm. US corn export commit is up 17 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26. US talk of increasing China steel tariff from 7 pct to 25 could reduce China interest in US corn. Brazil farmer selling increased on increase confidence crop could be above 120 mmt. Argentina est their corn crop near 49 mmt with 17 pct of crop harvested. USDA Ag Attache dropped crop est to 51 mmt vs USDA 55. Hog futures have dropped on talk of reduced China imports. EPA is expected to announce temporary expanding period US could use E-15 outside summertime.
WK is near 5.45. US export commit is up only 1 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 4. China cancelled 2 cargoes of US wheat. Back in November, China bought 1 mmt of US wheat which rallied futures from 5.80 to 6.50 but prices failed to hold gains and are near 5.44 today. Wheat futures started lower on Thursday but rallied into close on new concern about dryness across US south plains HRW crop area and dryness in S Russia.
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