Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher but near $69.27. Gold is lower. Copper is higher. Trump delay Mexico and Canada tariffs until April2. There is talk Trump could impose a 25 pct tariff on EU goods. Trade watching China “Two Session” meeting over next few weeks for new economic policy.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.48. Dalian soybean, soymeal , soyoil and were higher. Palmoil was lower. Soybean futures tested 10.40 SK support on reduced US/China relations. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 480 last week. Trade is hoping for good weekly soymeal sales. Delay in Canada tariffs weighed on soyoil futures. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 soybean acres at 84.4 vs 87.1 last year. C/N Brazil rains could slow harvest. S/E is dry. N Argentina is dry. Rest of Argentina should see normal rains. Brazil soybean fob values higher despite drop in China buying. China crush margins are negative and could delay new buying.
CORN
CK is near 4.95. 5.00 remains key resistance. Trade below 4.84 CH would turn trade lower and could trigger more fund selling. Dalian corn was higher. US cash basis is lower and there is talk of March corn deliveries. CH-CK is near -15. Late Brazil corn plantings and Argentina crops could add to US Aril-May export interest. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 900-1,500 vs 1,453 last week. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 corn acres at 93.5 vs 90.6 last year. C/S Argentina and S Brazil is seeing rains. Dry N/C Brazil weather should help plantings but could begin to dry soils.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.77. KWK is near 5.96. MWK is near 6.17. WK is down almost 47 cents from last weeks high on reduced Russia weather concerns. KWH-KWK is wide and near -13. US SRW and HRW prices are trying to be more competitive vs lower Russia prices. US HRS prices are competitive for high protein buyers. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Rains move into Baltics and W Ukraine but Russia is dry. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 wheat acres at 46.7 vs 46.1 last year. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-600 mt vs 532 last week.
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