Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down another $.04-$.09 today with most contracts testing their 2 week lows. Spreads also weakened. Commodities were pressured by increased trade tensions with China along with improved conditions in South America. Late last week the Trump Administration threatened to impose up to a $1 mil. fee on any Chinese made vessels arriving at US ports. Odds of a US/Chinese trade deal seem to be deteriorating. Rains have begun to fill in over southern and central growing regions of Argentina over the weekend. Waves of rain are expected over the next week to 10 days which may result in isolated flooding. Friday’s CFTC data showed money managers were net buyers of just over 21k contracts of corn last week while index funds added nearly 5k contracts. The index fund long position has swelled to nearly 491k, within reach of the record large 504k. Export inspections at 45 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD inspections at 1.019 bil. are up 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Mexico was the largest taker with 11 mil. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd corn plantings surged 28% LW to 64% complete, however still below the 73% at this stage YA. With the acceleration of plantings over the past few weeks much less of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop will reach its key reproductive stage during their dry season. A Bloomberg survey for Friday’s USDA Outlook Forum expects US corn acres will increase nearly 3 mil. in 2025 to 93.5 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex today with beans down $.08-$.11 led by old crop, meal was $3 lower while bean oil was down over $.01 per lb. in the spot contracts. Spreads were lower across the complex with nearby spreads making new lows. May-25 beans did hold above the Feb-25 lows at $10.41 ¼. May-25 meal has also held its monthly low at $299.90. Despite the pullback, a short term uptrend in bean oil prices remains intact. Spot board crush margins slide $.08 ½ to $1.15 ½ per bu. with bean oil PV dropping to 43.9 %. In Brazil precipitation will favor the central and WC growing regions this week, slowing bean harvest and corn plantings following good progress the past few weeks. East central and NE growing areas will remain in a hot/dry pattern. Southern and SC growing regions will also see limited rain activity over the next 7 days. CFTC data showed MM’s were net sellers of 12k soybeans, nearly 10k bean meal while net buyers of nearly 7k bean oil. Index funds are holding a record long position in bean oil at nearly 147k contracts. Export inspections at 32 mil. bu. were above expectations and well above pace needed to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.355 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took 18 mil. while Mexico took 5 mil. AgRural reports Brazil’s soybean harvest jumped 16% LW to 39% nearly reaching the 40% pace from YA. They also lowered their Brazilian production forecast nearly 3 mmt to 168.2 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 169 mmt, however above the Conab est. of 166 mmt. The Bloomberg survey for Friday’s USDA Outlook Forum expects US bean acres will drop 2.7 mil. in 2025 to 84.4 mil.
WHEAT
Prices were $.10-$.13 lower across all 3 classes today with last week’s artic blast a distant memory. In the US a normal to above normal temperature pattern looks to hold thru the first week of March. Little to no moisture for the WCB and plain states this week with lite moisture for the ECB and Great Lakes region. Week 2 of the outlook brings better prospects for widespread moisture. Support for May-25 Chicago rests at its 100 day MA, currently $5.82. Support for May-25 KC sits at its 2 week low just below $6.00. Export inspections at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and just below the 16 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 559 mil. up 21% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 20%. MM’s bought nearly 32,500 contracts of wheat across all 3 classes LW reducing their net short position to 91,510 contracts, their smallest short position in 3 months. IKAR reports that Russia’s export price for wheat ended LW at $251 mt, up $4 mt from the previous week. SovEcon reports Russia’s grain exports fell to 510k mt LW, down from 570k the previous week, while wheat exports held steady at 420k mt. The Bloomberg survey for all wheat acres in 2025 at 46.7 mil. is up 1.3% from YA.
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