Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
November soybeans traded higher on the session led by solid demand news for meal, and continued concerns with the short-term weather pattern. Dec oil also traded higher and the buying pushed the market up to the highest level since June 29. Exporters announced the sale of 103 mt of US meal sold to Mexico. Positioning ahead of the USDA report tomorrow and strength in the other grains helped to support. US weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending August 4, net soybean sales came in at -66,710 tonnes (cancelations) for the current marketing year and 477,241 for the next marketing year for a total of 410,531. Cumulative soybean sales have reached 27.1% of the USDA forecast for the 2022/2023 marketing year. Net meal sales came in at 90,887 tonnes for the current marketing year and 311,174 for the next marketing year for a total of 402,061. Cumulative meal sales have reached 92.0% of the USDA forecast for the 2021/2022 marketing.
CORN
December corn traded moderately higher on the session as traders remain concerned with the harsh weather in Europe which could drive production lower. In addition, Brazil corn production was not as high as feared and traders are also uncertain with the US yield Outlook. Bloomberg survey showed traders expected Brazilian corn production to come in near 116.6 mmt, 114.60-121.60 range, vs 115.6 mmt Conab estimated in July. Conab pegged the crop at 114.6 mmt which was a bullish surprise. Argentine 2022/23 corn harvest is seen at 55 million tonnes, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange. The exchange said it expects the country’s corn planting area to fall by 4.7% to 8 million hectares. The weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending August 4, net corn sales came in at 191 mt for the current marketing year and 191 mt for the next marketing year for a total of 383,153. Cumulative sales have reached 13.2 pct of the USDA forecast for the 2022/2023 marketing year. Brazil prices are still below US. Increase Ukraine exports of loaded corn boats also offers resistance. Total commit is near 2,395 mil bu vs 2,759 ly. USDA is expected tomorrow to lower US corn yield and US 2022/23 corn carryout. Corn markets are trying to add a little weather premium back into prices after yesterdays late selloff. Market is afraid to take new positions before tomorrows USDA report and next weeks US Midwest weather. GFS American weather model still shows good rains mid next week over most of the Midwest. The EU model is drier.
WHEAT
September wheat traded moderately higher on the session and the buying push the market up to the highest level since July 29. A further break in the US dollar along with fears of further losses to the corn crop in Europe which might spark some better feeding demand for wheat helped to support. Traders believe 12 ships have moved out of Ukraine ports carrying more than 370,000 tons of corn and foodstuffs. The first wheat shipment is expected next week. The weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending August 4, net wheat sales came in at 359,165 tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 39.5% of the USDA forecast for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 38.2%. Russia wheat prices remain lowest versus other origins. Talk of a record Russia wheat crop offers resistance. Total commit is near 316 mil bu vs 320 ly. USDA is expected tomorrow to increase US 2022 crop and US 2022/23 wheat carryout.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
