Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was sharply lower early Monday following a move to new contract highs on Friday. News that a meeting between Iranian negotiators and Qatari mediators resulted in a draft proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of any “meaningful’ military action over the weekend have raised hope for peace a bit. Perhaps the Iranians view a potential Democratic victory in Tuesday’s mid-terms will help rein-in Trump, but on the other hand, just last week the market was worried about a majora attack being planned for after the election.
PRODUCTS
October RBOB broke below a month-long consolidation to its lowest level since September 29 early Monday, as the market felt pressure from lower crude oil prices. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 2,197 contracts of RBOB for the week ending October 27, reducing their net long to 91,394.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas was higher early Monday after falling to its lowest level since June 2021 on Friday, with the nearby contract falling to its lowest level since April. The weather forecast continues to point to mild temperatures and slow heating demand, and US production is close to record levels, but the market had already fallen 23% since October 15.
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