Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
More of the same, lower trade across the Ag space this AM as harvest pressure, speculative selling and routine demand continue to weigh on commodity valuations. Energy prices are higher despite efforts to restart peace talks between the US and Iran. Iran’s military is reporting 2 tankers caught fire after striking mines south of the Staits of Hormuz. Dec-26 WTI crude oil is up $.70 per barrel at $98.50 while holding within yesterday’s range. Spot RBOB is up $.02 per gallon while HO is steady. Payments from the Harvest Fuel Relief program, the Trump Administrations $8 billion assistance package to help US farmers offset record high diesel prices, will be released in November. Light rains in the C. Plains yesterday, otherwise dry conditions across the Midwest. Showers to impact the plains and portions of the WCB this weekend into early next week while dry conditions across the rest of the nation’s midsection should allow US harvest to get back on track. Above normal temperatures look to hold across the Midwest into early November with above normal precipitation in the west, below normal in the east. Moderate to heavy showers over the next week for central and S. Brazil and much of Argentina with temperatures below normal. Hot for N. growing areas of Brazil with rainfall much more scattered. The US $$$ is little changed in 2-sided trade. US stock indices are steady to higher.
Corn:
Dec-26 is $.03 ½ lower at $4.58 ½ holding just above the August low at $4.57 ¼. Spot corn has closed lower for 6 consecutive sessions. After another session with heavy speculative selling, we’ve got the MM long position at 182k contracts. Open interest was up just over 6k contracts. EIA data is expected to show ethanol production rose to 322 mil. gallons last week, up from 313 mil. the previous week. COF on Friday is expected to show cattle inventories at 11.441 mil. head as of Oct. 1st, slightly above 11.418 mil. YA. Placements are expected to be down 8.3% while marketing off 7.3%. Brazil’s exports in Oct-26 are expected to reach 6.87 mmt, vs. 5.69 mmt YA. The path of least resistance remains lower.
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are $.06 lower at $12.42 ¼, falling to a fresh 2-month low. While having closed lower for 7 consecutive sessions, next support is at the 100-day MA, currently $12.27 ¼. Dec-26 meal is down $2.40 at $346.30 while Dec-26 oil is off 40 points at 66.33, both holding just above this month’s low. Crush margins are off another $.04 at $2.49 bu. Soybean O.I. was up 12.8k contracts, down 9.4k in meal while oil was up just over 1k contracts. Yesterday’s flash sale of 610k mt bring Chinese purchases to roughly 17-17.5 mmt. US Gulf FOB offers holding $.20-$.30 below Brazilian offers into the end of the year. Brazil’s exports are expected to reach 6.4 mmt in Oct-26 vs. 6.54 mmt YA. US harvest likely reaching 80%+ by the end of this weekend.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.03 to $.09 lower with fresh 3-month lows across all 3 classes. CGO Dec-26 is $.06 lower at $6.37, Dec-26 KC is off $.08 ½ at $6.82 ½ while Dec-26 MIAX is down $.03 at $6.58 ¾. We’ve got the MM short position in CGO wheat back up to 43k contracts, the largest in 3 months. O.I. in CGO was up 3.2k contracts yesterday while up 2.1k in KC. NATO has discussed security in the Black Sea recently while deciding to send “additional assets to the region.” Iran has been the largest importer of Russian grain since the start of the 2026/27 MY in July. Their grain imports have reached 1.72 mmt, Egypt comes in 2nd at 1.35 mmt while Azerbaijan a distant 3rd with .545 mmt. The price pullback should enable US wheat to be more competitive in the global marketplace.
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